How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our target profile includes: Overround between 100%–115%, Normalized Probability 27%–34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below NP, field sizes of 8–12 runners, and Value rated Fair or Above Fair.
Nap of the Meeting – Worcester 05/09/25
#1 An Bradan Feasa (Form: 40433-)
Returns to hurdles off a reduced mark after a productive Flat spell; NP materially exceeds IP and the 2m setup on easing ground fits his SecEff profile in a compact field.
16:25 Worcester – Race 1 (Class 5, 6 runners)
#1 Traveling Soldier (Form: 6P-221)
Breakthrough win at Market Rasen and only 1lb higher; pace and ground/trip suitability boost SecEff for a repeat in a tight six-runner book.
#3 Hobie (Form: /287-1)
Returned with a win and retains upside; tactical speed suits a small-field chase and normalized figures keep him onside.
#1 Auntie Maggie (Form: -41165)
Consistent at this level and should be finishing; normalization modestly outruns IP, keeping her in the frame.
17:00 Worcester – Race 2 (Class 4, 8 runners)
#8 Jet Smart (Form: O-1111)
Chasing a five-timer with robust staying profile; NP exceeds IP in an efficient eight-runner book for Above Fair value.
#6 Harrys Hope (Form: P-2122)
Reliable stayer with consistent figures; small NP edge over IP and strong SecEff suggest another podium finish.
#4 Bagheera Ginge (Form: 257-72)
Handy racer with staying reserves; normalized numbers make him a fair value play for the frame.
17:30 Worcester – Race 3 (Class 5, 7 runners)
#2 Saxon Cross (Form: PU-P52)
Clear recent benchmark behind a next-time-out winner; small NP lift over IP keeps him onside in a 7-runner book.
#7 Usyk (Form: 42)
Progressive bumper type with strong yard stats; NP materially over IP flags Above Fair value and solid win/place claims.
#4 Blinded By Grace (Form: —)
Well-connected debutant; slight NP edge over IP and rider uplift make her a fair minor honours contender.
18:00 Worcester – Race 4 (Class 4, 8 runners)
#3 Garde My Guinness (Form: 333)
Solid bumper base and appealing pedigree for timber; NP over IP and strong yard/jockey signal a forward showing.
#8 Window Of Time (Form: 33-250)
New yard and top rider could unlock improvement; normalized figures show a small positive edge over market.
#4 Hill In Brazil (Form: 260-)
Early bumper promise; stable can ready one and normalized probabilities keep her competitive for a place.
18:30 Worcester – Race 5 (Class 4, 8 runners)
#2 Tranquil Sea (Form: 2094-P)
Stable switch and ideal trip/ground; NP comfortably outstrips IP and the claim aids SecEff in a competitive handicap.
#3 Sixty Plus (Form: 402111)
Thriving but market likely over-credits; normalization trims win chance though his current form still makes a strong case for the frame.
#4 Tamarind Bay (Form: 4227-3)
Reliable placed form and fitness edge; marginal NP over IP supports solid place prospects.
19:00 Worcester – Race 6 (Class 5, 6 runners)
#1 Just Chasing May (Form: 328-11)
Dual recent wins and course affinity; peak efficiency over 3m with a sustained finish gives a narrow NP over IP advantage.
#5 The Flying Poet (Form: 28-252)
Recent C&D run strong against a well-treated rival; NP edge and rider synergy mark him as the primary danger.
#4 Rubys Legacy (Form: 4/P4-2)
Workable mark and grinding style for 3m; slight NP over IP supports place claims in a tight six-runner field.
19:30 Worcester – Race 7 (Class 4, 6 runners)
#1 An Bradan Feasa (Form: 40433-)
Reduced hurdles mark after good Flat efforts; normalization shows a healthy value gap over IP back at 2m.
#2 Scintillante (Form: 314212)
Rock-solid C&D campaigner; near-parity NP vs IP implies fair value and strong frame claims.
#3 Douglas Dc (Form: 4239-3)
Consistent marks and a useful claim; tactical speed for 2m keeps him in the mix behind the principals.
Notes
Overround guide: 100–115% 116–117% 118%+ ≤99%
IP = Implied Probability (from odds). NP = Normalized Probability (book adjusted to 100%). If NP > IP = Value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair, F Fair, BF Below Fair