Bet Smart & Win
Kempton — Mon 15/09/25
Races: 8 (1–8)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
How To Pick Winners
We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:
- Overround: 100–115% (Green); 116–117% (Orange); ≤99% or ≥118% (Red)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: Above Fair (Green)
- Class: 5, 4, 3
- Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
- NP: 27% or Above
- IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
Kempton 15/09/25 — NAP
NAP#8 Cardinal Point (Form: 0838123p)
J: Kieran Shoemark
NP: 24%
IP: 25%
5/20
25%
Trainer: Michael Bell
Trainer RTF%: 70
Odds: —
Wt: —
BF
Why this is the NAP
- Excellent recent form line; model’s strongest overall profile in this card.
- Trainer hitting at 70% RTF; track/trip look optimal on Standard to Slow.
- Overround acceptable at 114% for late market refinement.
1
16:25 Kempton — Unibet/Breeders Backing Racing EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) — 1m3f219y
#9 Port Of London (Form: 023)
J: William Buick
NP: 29%
IP: 40%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear form pick; stamina test should suit on AW.
- Top partnership; tactical speed to sit handy.
- Market may need to soften to flip value (IP > NP currently).
#5 Criminal (Form: 43423)
J: Finley Marsh
NP: 22%
IP: 31%
10/20
50%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid consistency; AW action fine.
- Likely prominent; strong place claims if pace steadies.
#7 Military Cross (Form: 3)
J: Benoit De La Sayette
NP: 15%
IP: 20%
10/20
50%
Details
Why we like this
- Debut promise; natural second-up improvement likely.
- Up in trip should unlock more late energy.
2
16:55 Kempton — Racing TV Fillies’ Novice Stakes (GBB Race) — 7f
#1 Flash Of Fire (Form: 12)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 26%
IP: 31%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- Winning form; retains upside at 7f.
- Top rider booking; should track and pounce.
#11 Tarot (Form: 222h)
J: Ray Dawson
NP: 26%
IP: 31%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- String of near-misses; ready to strike.
- Strong stable; pace should set up well.
#4 Dancing Flower (Form: 32)
J: William Buick
NP: 15%
IP: 18%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- Appleby/Buick angle; natural progress expected.
- Place claims strong if leaders duel.
3
17:30 Kempton — Unibet Zero% Mission Nursery Handicap — 1m
#3 Midnight Rodeo (Form: 78622)
J: Darragh Keenan
NP: 28%
IP: 33%
9/20
45%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent placer; trip and surface suit.
- Could control from a handy slot in an 8-runner field.
#6 Mohaab (Form: 67432)
J: Lewis Edmunds
NP: 22%
IP: 25%
7/20
35%
Details
Why we like this
- Trainer form hot; holds steady place claims.
- Profiles well for a controlled pace scenario.
#4 Warriors Choice (Form: 6452p1)
J: Kieran Shoemark
NP: 12%
IP: 14%
9/20
45%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent win boosts confidence; AW adaptable.
- Each-way claims despite tight book.
4
18:00 Kempton — Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events H’cap (Div I) — 1m
#4 Falmouth Lad (Form: 5306213)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 23%
IP: 31%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- In form; rider upgrade a positive.
- Should get a clean run; solid chance.
#2 Lessay (Form: 4567334)
J: Hector Crouch
NP: 15%
IP: 18%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- Course experience; late strength to figure.
- Place player if pace honest.
#10 Zolder (Form: 443733)
J: J F Egan
NP: 10%
IP: 13%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable profile; can sneak into the frame.
5
18:30 Kempton — Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events H’cap (Div II) — 1m
#8 Dragonflame (Form: 882323)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 21%
IP: 25%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- String of places; knocking on the door.
#4 Flightofthephoenix (Form: 266323)
J: Ben Sanderson
NP: 21%
IP: 25%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Profile mirrors the top pick; robust place chance.
#1 Toralou (Form: 4262214)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 21%
IP: 25%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- Course-suited; rider boost notable.
6
19:00 Kempton — Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (GBB) — 6f
#1 Rock Iguana (Form: 313h)
J: David Egan
NP: 30%
IP: 33%
13/20
65%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent win; retains upside at 6f.
#2 Media Darling (Form: 313)
J: Marco Ghiani
NP: 22%
IP: 25%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid foundation; should be in the mix again.
#3 Freddie’s Star (Form: 23)
J: Lewis Edmunds
NP: 14%
IP: 17%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Progressing; place possibilities with clean break.
7
19:30 Kempton — Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap — 7f
#5 Silca Bay (Form: 6343113p)
J: Oliver Carmichael
NP: 16%
IP: 20%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- In form; stays 7f well.
#3 Bold Suitor (Form: 2119028)
J: Georgia Dobie
NP: 12%
IP: 14%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Course winner; could be revived by return to AW.
#11 British Blue (Form: 0654363)
J: Sean Levey
NP: 9%
IP: 11%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Back to AW; each-way squeak at a price.
8
20:00 Kempton — Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap — 1m7f218y
#3 Sax Appeal (Form: 3541315)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 32%
IP: 40%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear form pick; small field tactics suit.
#5 Red Flyer (Form: 3263867p)
J: Robert Havlin
NP: 15%
IP: 17%
7/20
35%
Details
Why we like this
- Potentially lenient mark; could grind late.
#1 Campaign Trail (Form: 1161/25tp)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 28%
IP: 36%
11/20
55%
Details
Why we like this
- Classy bits of form; needs a rebound but respected.
8
20:30 Kempton — Free Bet With Unibet’s Betbuilder Rebound Handicap — 1m2f219y
#8 Cardinal Point (Form: 0838123p)
J: Kieran Shoemark
NP: 24%
IP: 25%
5/20
25%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent figures solid; well placed in this grade.
#5 Carderock (Form: 886333p1)
J: Sean Levey
NP: 12%
IP: 17%
3/20
15%
Details
Why we like this
- Last-time-out win; carries momentum into this.
#11 Northern Blaze (Form: 577533tb1)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 9%
IP: 11%
5/20
25%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent winner; capable of getting involved late.