Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Bangor-On-Dee Gents Evening Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m3f123y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 5:10
First: I’m A Lumberjack
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 9-21F3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Tom Cannon
Trainer: Alan King
Trainer RTF% Form: 69%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 120
TS: 106
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Groovy Blue
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: -16P31 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Ben Jones
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 109
TS: 71
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: I’m A Lumberjack has shown strong recent form, including a win and a close third in competitive races. The soft ground suits his stamina, and Alan King’s stable is in good form. Groovy Blue is improving but may lack the class to challenge the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Kahavari could enter contention with his higher speed rating.
Race Name: Shane Brennan Is 50 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m4f72y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 5:40
First: Hunter Legend
Age: 8
Weight: 12-2
Form: -72115 (Consistent performances)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 18%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 107
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Grain d’Oudairies
Age: 9
Weight: 12-2
Form: 331F63 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Theo Gillard
Trainer: Donald McCain
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 117
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Hunter Legend thrives in soft conditions and has a strong record at this distance. Grain d’Oudairies has the class but has been inconsistent recently.
Scenario Analysis: If the rain eases, Clonakilty could surprise with his recent improvement.
Race Name: Horse Pwr Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m7f32y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 6:10
First: Chuggy
Age: 5
Weight: 11-10
Form: P-33 (Promising)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Charlie Todd
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 101
TS: 69
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Fresh Speculation
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 3-31P3 (Consistent)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Henry Daly
Trainer RTF% Form: 45%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 105
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Chuggy is unexposed and open to improvement, while Fresh Speculation is reliable but may lack the upside.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries, Sirekoff’s speed could come into play.
Race Name: Good Luck Wrexham A.F.C Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 3m30y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 6:40
First: Big City Roller
Age: 7
Weight: 11-7
Form: 1/12-1 (Progressive)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Lilly Pinchin
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Trainer RTF% Form: 29%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 123
TS: 104
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Konfusion
Age: 7
Weight: 10-13
Form: -33131 (In form)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Peter Kavanagh
Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 113
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Big City Roller is a rising star with a strong win record. Konfusion is consistent but may struggle to match the favorite’s turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Erne River’s stamina will be a factor.
Race Name: Bangor-On-Dee Congratulates Champion Jockey Sean Bowen Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m145y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 7:10
First: Dance And Glance
Age: 5
Weight: 11-11
Form: -11331 (Progressive)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Rex Dingle
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 74
Probability: First Horse High
Second: The Grafter
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
Form: 342222 (Consistent)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Jonathan England
Trainer: Sam England
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 108
TS: 109
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dance And Glance is improving rapidly and handles soft ground well. The Grafter is consistent but often finds one too good.
Scenario Analysis: If the rain eases, Crystal Glance’s speed could be dangerous.
Race Name: Family Day Saturday 17th May Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
Race Distance: 2m3f123y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 7:40
First: Ivane
Age: 7
Weight: 11-9
Form: 03P212 (Consistent)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 76
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Mokoro
Age: 6
Weight: 10-10
Form: 847663 (Improving)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Charlie Todd
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 78
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ivane is battle-hardened and suited by the conditions. Mokoro is unexposed but needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries, Regal And Royal could challenge.
Race Name: Family Day Saturday 17th May Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
Race Distance: 2m3f123y
Racecourse: Bangor-On-Dee
Time of Race: 8:10
First: Luminaries
Age: 8
Weight: 11-11
Form: 787111 (In form)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Trainer: Ewan Whillans
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 85
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Fat Harry
Age: 8
Weight: 11-3
Form: 0-7F32 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Soft
Jockey: Peter Kavanagh
Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 87
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Luminaries is thriving and handles soft ground well. Fat Harry has potential but needs to prove his consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the rain eases, Proper Twelve could enter calculations.
Best Value for Money Horse at Bangor-On-Dee (24th April 2025)
Horse: Konfusion
Age: 7
Weight: 10-13
Form: -33131 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 115
TS: 113
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Reasoning: Konfusion has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field. The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites. In summary, Konfusion presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Bangor-On-Dee – 24th April 2025
“Always format the response using the Lucky 15 template: list races with top 2 horses (flagging <80%), then 4 selections, then the 15 bets (singles, doubles, trebles, four-fold). Prioritize ≥80% horses. Add key insights and a best-value pick. Do not include the Race Numbers”
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Bangor-On-Dee Gents Evening Novices’ Hurdle (17:10)
- I’m A Lumberjack (88%)
- Groovy Blue (72%) [Flagged: <80%]
Shane Brennan Is 50 Handicap Chase (17:40)
- Clonakilty (82%)
- Stormy Flight (76%) [Flagged: <80%]
Horse PWR Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (18:10)
- Fresh Speculation (85%)
- Jomig Des Bois (79%) [Flagged: <80%]
Good Luck Wrexham A.F.C Handicap Chase (18:40)
- Sail Away (81%)
- Erne River (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Bangor-On-Dee Congratulates Champion Jockey Sean Bowen Handicap Hurdle (19:10)
- Celtic Art (80%)
- Bareback Jack (77%) [Flagged: <80%]
Family Day Saturday 17th May Handicap Hurdle (20:10)
- Luminaries (86%)
- Fat Harry (74%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- I’m A Lumberjack (17:10, Bangor-On-Dee, 88%)
- Luminaries (20:10, Bangor-On-Dee, 86%)
- Fresh Speculation (18:10, Bangor-On-Dee, 85%)
- Clonakilty (17:40, Bangor-On-Dee, 82%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- I’m A Lumberjack (17:10, Bangor-On-Dee)
- Luminaries (20:10, Bangor-On-Dee)
- Fresh Speculation (18:10, Bangor-On-Dee)
- Clonakilty (17:40, Bangor-On-Dee)
Doubles
- I’m A Lumberjack + Luminaries
- I’m A Lumberjack + Fresh Speculation
- I’m A Lumberjack + Clonakilty
- Luminaries + Fresh Speculation
- Luminaries + Clonakilty
- Fresh Speculation + Clonakilty
Trebles
- I’m A Lumberjack + Luminaries + Fresh Speculation
- I’m A Lumberjack + Luminaries + Clonakilty
- I’m A Lumberjack + Fresh Speculation + Clonakilty
- Luminaries + Fresh Speculation + Clonakilty
Four-Fold Accumulator
- I’m A Lumberjack + Luminaries + Fresh Speculation + Clonakilty
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Clonakilty (82%) –
- Highest Probability: I’m A Lumberjack (88%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Sail Away (81%) –
