Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Charlie Wilson Memorial Maiden Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 1:35
First: Buckna
Age: 5
Weight: 11-6
Form: 1-2323 Consistent performances
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 118
TS: 109
Probability: High

Second: Jack To Bat
Age: 6
Weight: 11-6
Form: P2-34 Improving form
Going: Good
Jockey: Richie McLernon
Trainer: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 86
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Buckna stands out with a strong OR of 118 and a TS of 109, reflecting consistent performances across varied conditions. His recent form (1-2323) shows reliability, with a third-place finish in a similar maiden hurdle. The good going suits his running style, and James Bowen’s experience on this track adds confidence. Jack To Bat, with an OR of 115, has shown improvement, particularly in his last two outings (P2-34). His TS of 86 is lower, but his ability to handle good ground and the O’Neill stable’s form make him a solid contender for second. Other horses like Rock On Cowboy lack the same level of consistency or ratings to challenge strongly.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground shifts to good to soft, Buckna’s performance may remain stable due to his adaptability, but Jack To Bat could gain a slight edge, having placed on softer ground previously. Heavy rain could favor Rock On Cowboy, whose stamina might shine.

Race Name: Visit racingtv.com Novices’ Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Ceolwulf
Age: 9
Weight: 12-0
Form: 4/3-21 Strong recent form
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Fionn McSharry
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 93
TS: 91
Probability: Very High

Second: Moonlight Artist
Age: 7
Weight: 10-11
Form: -6PP62 Improving
Going: Good
Jockey: Brendan Powell
Trainer: Joe Tizzard
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: 86
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Ceolwulf’s recent win (4/3-21) and OR of 93 make him the clear favorite. His TS of 91 and ability to handle 3m on good ground align perfectly with this race’s demands. James Bowen’s partnership with Ceolwulf has been successful, and the trainer’s stable is in decent form. Moonlight Artist, with a second-place finish in his last race, shows promise despite a lower OR of 76. His TS of 86 and suitability to good ground make him a viable pick for second. Jukebox d’Eddy and Ballygelly have lower consistency, with ORs and TS figures not matching the top two.
Scenario Analysis: On softer ground, Moonlight Artist’s stamina could improve his chances for second, potentially challenging Ceolwulf if the pace slows. Heavy conditions might favor Ballygelly, who has shown resilience in tougher scenarios.

Race Name: Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Prince Imperial
Age: 8
Weight: 12-2
Form: -71311 Strong winning form
Going: Good
Jockey: Beau Morgan
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 100
Probability: High

Second: Hecouldbetheone
Age: 8
Weight: 12-1
Form: -10251 Consistent
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Alex Chadwick
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 121
TS: 90
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Prince Imperial’s back-to-back wins (-71311) and OR of 122 give him a strong edge. His TS of 100 and comfort on good ground, combined with Olly Murphy’s training, make him a top pick. Beau Morgan’s 5lb claim further boosts his chances. Hecouldbetheone, with a recent win (-10251) and OR of 121, is a close contender for second. His TS of 90 is solid, and James Owen’s high RTF% (57%) adds reliability. Montecam and Ballybegg have competitive ORs but lack the recent form to challenge for the top spots.
Scenario Analysis: Good to soft conditions would still favor Prince Imperial, but Hecouldbetheone could close the gap if the ground softens further, given his versatility. Heavy ground might see Ballybegg improve due to his stamina.

Race Name: Molly Ollys Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m54y
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Gwennie May Jem
Age: 5
Weight: 10-8
Form: 434242 Consistent placer
Going: Good
Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 95
Probability: High

Second: Superstylin
Age: 8
Weight: 11-2
Form: -2U632 Improving
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Suzy Smith
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 104
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Gwennie May Jem’s consistent form (434242) and TS of 95 make her a strong pick, despite a lower OR of 80. Dan Skelton’s 50% RTF% and her suitability to good ground boost her chances. Superstylin, with a recent second (-2U632) and higher TS of 104, is a solid choice for second. His OR of 88 and James Bowen’s riding make him competitive. Brother Boris has a similar profile but lacks the same level of recent consistency.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could favor Superstylin, whose higher TS suggests better speed. Heavy conditions might see Brother Boris perform better due to his stamina on shorter distances.

Race Name: John Sillett Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 3m1f
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 3:37
First: Supremely West
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 22-316 Strong form
Going: Good
Jockey: Oliver Boyden
Trainer: Dr Newland & Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 137
TS: 117
Probability: High

Second: Ikarak
Age: 7
Weight: 11-1
Form: 8-1P15 Mixed but capable
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Brogan
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 124
TS: 108
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Supremely West’s OR of 137 and TS of 117, paired with a solid form line (22-316), make him the standout. His ability to handle 3m1f on good ground and the trainer’s form give him a clear edge. Ikarak, with a recent win (8-1P15) and OR of 124, is a strong contender for second. His TS of 108 and Olly Murphy’s training add reliability. Doyen Quest and Captain Morgs have higher ORs but inconsistent recent form.
Scenario Analysis: Good to soft ground would still suit Supremely West, but Ikarak could improve on softer conditions, given his past performances. Heavy ground might favor Snipe, who has shown stamina.

Race Name: Wigley Investment Holdings Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m4f
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 4:12
First: Abingworth
Age: 7
Weight: 11-13
Form: U46P31 Recent winner
Going: Good
Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 107
TS: 101
Probability: High

Second: Rangatira Jack
Age: 7
Weight: 11-6
Form: 0P5421 Recent winner
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Houlihan
Trainer: Linda Blackford
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 100
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Abingworth’s recent win (U46P31) and OR of 107, combined with a TS of 101, make him the top pick. The Moore stable’s 58% RTF% and Caoilin Quinn’s riding add confidence. Rangatira Jack, with a recent win (0P5421) and OR of 100, is a strong second choice. His TS of 100 and suitability to good ground make him competitive. Davidoc and God’s Own Getaway have similar ORs but less consistent form.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could see Rangatira Jack close the gap, given his adaptability. Heavy conditions might favor Davidoc, who has shown resilience on tougher tracks.

Race Name: racingtv.com Open National Hunt Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m
Racecourse: Warwick
Time of Race: 4:47
First: Big Boy Barney
Age: 6
Weight: 11-3
Form: 1-4 Strong debut
Going: Good
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 71%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 62
Probability: High

Second: Orderoftheday
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 3-122 Consistent
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Brogan
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 83
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Big Boy Barney’s debut win (1-4) and Fergal O’Brien’s 71% RTF% make him the top pick, despite a lower TS of 62. His suitability to good ground and Jonathan Burke’s experience add strength. Orderoftheday, with consistent placings (3-122) and a higher TS of 83, is a solid second choice. Olly Murphy’s training and good ground suitability make him competitive. Pioneer Pete and Ice In The Veins lack the same level of proven form.
Scenario Analysis: Good to soft ground would still favor Big Boy Barney, but Orderoftheday could gain an edge on softer conditions, given his consistent placings.

Best Value for Money Horse at Warwick on 24th April 2025
Out of my analysis for Warwick, Prince Imperial shows the best value for money based on performance metrics.
Age: 8
Weight: 12-2
Form: -71311 Strong winning form
OR: 122
TS: 100
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Prince Imperial has shown exceptional recent form with two consecutive wins, demonstrating both consistency and improvement. His OR of 122 is among the highest in his race, and his TS of 100 reflects strong speed capabilities. The good going at Warwick suits his running style, and Beau Morgan’s 5lb claim enhances his competitiveness.
Race Conditions: The 2m3f distance and good ground are ideal for Prince Imperial, who has a proven track record under similar conditions. The Olly Murphy stable’s form and the horse’s adaptability to the track further solidify his value.
In Summary: Prince Imperial presents the best value for money, offering a strong balance of high performance metrics (OR, TS, and recent form) and suitability to the race conditions, making him a standout choice despite not having the highest odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Warwick – 24th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

13:35 – Charlie Wilson Memorial Maiden Hurdle

• Buckna (85%)
• Jack To Bat (75%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:05 – Visit racingtv.com Novices’ Handicap Chase

• Ceolwulf (82%)
• Ballynaheer (78%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:35 – Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap Hurdle

• Hecouldbetheone (80%)
• Prince Imperial (78%) [Flagged: <80%]

16:47 – racingtv.com Open NH Flat Race

• Pioneer Pete (80%)
• Fresh Kicks (78%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Buckna (13:35, Warwick, 85%)
2. Ceolwulf (14:05, Warwick, 82%)
3. Hecouldbetheone (14:35, Warwick, 80%)
4. Pioneer Pete (16:47, Warwick, 80%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Buckna (13:35, Warwick)
2. Ceolwulf (14:05, Warwick)
3. Hecouldbetheone (14:35, Warwick)
4. Pioneer Pete (16:47, Warwick)

Doubles

1. Buckna + Ceolwulf
2. Buckna + Hecouldbetheone
3. Buckna + Pioneer Pete
4. Ceolwulf + Hecouldbetheone
5. Ceolwulf + Pioneer Pete
6. Hecouldbetheone + Pioneer Pete

Trebles

1. Buckna + Ceolwulf + Hecouldbetheone
2. Buckna + Ceolwulf + Pioneer Pete
3. Buckna + Hecouldbetheone + Pioneer Pete
4. Ceolwulf + Hecouldbetheone + Pioneer Pete

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Buckna + Ceolwulf + Hecouldbetheone + Pioneer Pete

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Pioneer Pete (80%) –
• Highest Probability: Buckna (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Fresh Kicks (78%) –