Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Campbell & Son Roofing Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m47y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 1:32
First: Spadestep
Age: 6
Weight: 11-0
Form: 12 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 26%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 112
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Junker d’Allier
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 2-11P4 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 127
TS: 105
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Spadestep has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over hurdles. Junker d’Allier has a higher OR but may struggle with the weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Junker d’Allier’s stamina could come into play.

Race Name: QuinnBet Highland National Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m6f121y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Mt Fugi Park
Age: 7
Weight: 11-13
Form: 49-P51 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
Trainer: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Trainer RTF% Form: 31%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 115
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Fairlawn Flyer
Age: 9
Weight: 10-9
Form: 474711 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Peter & Michael Bowen
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 104
TS: 121
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mt Fugi Park has a strong recent win and is well-weighted. Fairlawn Flyer has top speed but a lower OR.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries, Fairlawn Flyer’s speed could be decisive.

Race Name: Alastair Down Novices’ Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m7f180y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 2:40
First: President Scottie
Age: 7
Weight: 12-1
Form: 4-2333 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Trainer: Nicky Richards
Trainer RTF% Form: 64%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 121
TS: 95
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Wal Buck’s
Age: 6
Weight: 11-7
Form: -63213 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 26%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 113
TS: 107
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: President Scottie is consistent and well-handicapped. Wal Buck’s has potential but lacks experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Wal Buck’s could challenge.

Race Name: Helen Tudhope Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m7f180y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 3:17
First: Whistle Stop Tour
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: -3115P (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 26%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 136
TS: 125
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Coco Mademoiselle
Age: 7
Weight: 11-1
Form: 2-262U (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 123
TS: 135
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Whistle Stop Tour has a strong recent record. Coco Mademoiselle has top speed but inconsistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, Coco Mademoiselle could dominate.

Race Name: Campbell & Son Roofing Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 3m2f127y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 3:52
First: Felicie Du Maquis
Age: 10
Weight: 11-12
Form: /4-611 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Richard Patrick
Trainer: Clive Boultbee-Brooks
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 128
TS: 98
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Guard The Moon
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 11228P (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: James Turner
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 126
TS: 120
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Felicie Du Maquis has strong recent form. Guard The Moon is consistent but less proven over this distance.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Guard The Moon’s stamina could shine.

Race Name: Simon Dunning Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f35y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 4:25
First: Scorsese
Age: 7
Weight: 11-11
Form: -09641 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 96
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Tramuntana
Age: 6
Weight: 11-10
Form: 6-6301 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 38
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Scorsese has strong recent form and is well-weighted. Tramuntana is improving but lacks consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries, Tramuntana could surprise.

Race Name: Goodbye Charlo Thanks For Everything Open National Hunt Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m47y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Wilstar
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 65
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Spectacularsunrise
Age: 5
Weight: 11-7
Form: 14 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Jamie Brace
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 79
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Wilstar has shown promise in limited runs. Spectacularsunrise is consistent but less proven.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Spectacularsunrise could challenge.

Best Value for Money Horse at Perth on the 25th of April 2025
Out of my analysis for Perth, Whistle Stop Tour shows the best value for money based on:

• Age: 7
• Weight: 12-0
• Form: -3115P (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
• OR: 136
• TS: 125
• RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Whistle Stop Tour has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Whistle Stop Tour presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Perth – 25th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

Campbell & Son Roofing Novices’ Hurdle (1:32 PM)

• Spadestep (Probability: 85%)
• Junker d’Allier (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

QuinnBet Highland National Handicap Chase (2:05 PM)

• Jacks Parrot (Probability: 80%)
• Mt Fugi Park (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Alastair Down Novices’ Handicap Chase (2:40 PM)

• Olivers Travels (Probability: 82%)
• President Scottie (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

Simon Dunning Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (4:25 PM)

• Upfordebate (Probability: 88%)
• Scorsese (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Spadestep (1:32 PM, Perth, 85%)
2. Jacks Parrot (2:05 PM, Perth, 80%)
3. Olivers Travels (2:40 PM, Perth, 82%)
4. Upfordebate (4:25 PM, Perth, 88%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Spadestep (1:32 PM, Perth)
2. Jacks Parrot (2:05 PM, Perth)
3. Olivers Travels (2:40 PM, Perth)
4. Upfordebate (4:25 PM, Perth)

Doubles

1. Spadestep + Jacks Parrot
2. Spadestep + Olivers Travels
3. Spadestep + Upfordebate
4. Jacks Parrot + Olivers Travels
5. Jacks Parrot + Upfordebate
6. Olivers Travels + Upfordebate

Trebles

1. Spadestep + Jacks Parrot + Olivers Travels
2. Spadestep + Jacks Parrot + Upfordebate
3. Spadestep + Olivers Travels + Upfordebate
4. Jacks Parrot + Olivers Travels + Upfordebate

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Spadestep + Jacks Parrot + Olivers Travels + Upfordebate

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Upfordebate (88%) –
• Highest Probability: Upfordebate (88%) –
• Alternative if Needed: President Scottie (78%) –