How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour.
This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Lock 13 Gastropub & Brewpub Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 4:50
First: #6 Puerto Rico
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 4
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 50
OR: —
TS: 77
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Learntodiscover
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 3
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Trainer RTF%: 60
OR: —
TS: 85
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #4 Fresh Fade
Form: 2
Jockey: Ronan Whelan
Trainer: M D O’Callaghan
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Puerto Rico, representing the O’Brien-Moore axis, shaped with promise on debut and is expected to improve for that experience. The colt’s early pace and finishing effort rate highly on the sectionals, and the stable is in strong form. Learntodiscover, with a solid debut and the benefit of Keane in the saddle, profiles as the main danger, especially if the ground eases. Fresh Fade, with the best debut form, is respected for the places. The pace map suggests a prominent ride from Puerto Rico, with Fresh Fade tracking the leaders and Learntodiscover finishing late.
Scenario Analysis: Should the ground turn softer, Learntodiscover’s stamina and closing speed could become more influential, potentially reversing the forecast. A strong early gallop would also suit Fresh Fade’s running style.
Overround Insight: This race operates at 122% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 22%. This is considered high, suggesting value may be found in the top two, particularly if market shortens further on the favourite.
O’Driscolls Irish Whiskey Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (2yo)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 5:20
First: #2 Cape Sounion
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 22
Jockey: Gavin Ryan
Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 82
OR: —
TS: 88
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Minerva
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 3
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 50
OR: —
TS: 49
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #8 Justiciar
Form: —
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Cape Sounion brings the strongest form, having chased home a subsequent Royal Ascot third last time, and is expected to relish the step up to 7f. Minerva, from the O’Brien-Moore partnership, shapes as the chief threat and will improve for her debut. Justiciar is a well-related newcomer from a yard with a strong juvenile record. The pace map suggests a solid tempo, with Cape Sounion likely to be handy.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground deteriorates, Minerva’s stamina could come into play. Any market strength for Justiciar would be significant given the trainer’s record with debutantes.
Overround Insight: Overround at 121% → Bookmaker margin 21%. This is high, indicating inflated odds in the mid-market and potential value at the top.
JJ Mahon & Sons Handicap (3yo+)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 5:50
First: #9 Dark Viper
Age: 4
Weight: 8-12
Form: 0-2135
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF%: 46
OR: 74
TS: 83
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #5 Four Blondes
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: 28-002
Jockey: Donagh O’Connor
Trainer: Ross O’Sullivan
Trainer RTF%: 50
OR: 83
TS: 72
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #8 Ribchestina
Form: /36-24
Jockey: Jamie Powell
Trainer: M D O’Callaghan
Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
A competitive handicap with Dark Viper boasting the most consistent recent form and a strong closing section. Four Blondes is on a workable mark and comes here on the back of an improved run. Ribchestina is lightly raced and open to further progress. The pace should be strong, with several front-runners drawn wide.
Scenario Analysis: If the early pace collapses, closers like Ribchestina and Genesis could be seen to best effect. A drying surface would suit Four Blondes.
Overround Insight: Overround at 123% → Bookmaker margin 23%. This is high, but with a wide field, each-way terms are generous for value hunters.
Silken Thomas Kildare Town Irish EBF Median Auction Maiden (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 6:20
First: #7 Boogie Inthejungle
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 4-
Jockey: Gary Carroll
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF%: 59
OR: —
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Made U Blush
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 46-35
Jockey: W J Lee
Trainer: W McCreery
Trainer RTF%: 42
OR: 77
TS: 59
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #8 Ithacan Queen
Form: —
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Boogie Inthejungle showed promise on debut and is expected to improve for the step up in trip. Made U Blush is the main danger, with solid recent form and a strong finish. Ithacan Queen is an unknown but comes from a yard that can ready one.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, stamina will be at a premium, favouring Made U Blush. A muddling pace could bring the closers into play.
Overround Insight: Overround at 120% → Bookmaker margin 20%. Market is tight at the top, but value exists in the win market.
James Nolan’s Bar Kildare Town Handicap (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 6:50
First: #13 Refreshment
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: -64611
Jockey: Gavin Ryan
Trainer: Mark Fahey
Trainer RTF%: 50
OR: 79
TS: 78
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 21%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #3 Instant Appeal
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 31/033
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF%: 46
OR: 78
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #17 Empress Artemis
Form: 14-45
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Refreshment is progressive and arrives in top form, with a strong closing kick and a favourable draw. Instant Appeal is consistent and should be involved if the pace is strong. Empress Artemis is lightly raced and open to improvement.
Scenario Analysis: A strong pace could see closers dominate. If the ground dries further, Refreshment’s tactical speed will be a major asset.
Overround Insight: Overround at 122% → Bookmaker margin 22%. Competitive field, but the top two offer each-way value.
Diageo Luxury Spirits Irish EBF Maiden (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 7:25
First: #10 Game Point
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 42-22
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Trainer RTF%: 60
OR: 88
TS: 57
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 30%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #20 Tswalu
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 6-222
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 59
OR: 84
TS: 71
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 25%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #14 Our Friend Mouse
Form: 2
Jockey: W J Lee
Trainer: A Oliver
Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Game Point has been knocking on the door and is ideally drawn to get a prominent position. Tswalu has been runner-up on her last three starts and will be thereabouts again. Our Friend Mouse is an improver and could surprise if the pace collapses.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Tswalu’s stamina could come to the fore. A slow early gallop would favour Game Point’s tactical speed.
Overround Insight: Overround at 119% → Bookmaker margin 19%. Market is efficient, but top two are solid value.
Fitzpatrick’s Mercedes-Benz Apprentice Derby Handicap (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m4f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 8:00
First: #10 Fortuna Vera
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 1-7413
Jockey: Julian Pietropaolo
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 59
OR: 79
TS: 39
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 18%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #7 Barrogstown Girl
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 61-542
Jockey: Neve Bennett
Trainer: Jarlath P Fahey
Trainer RTF%: 67
OR: 70
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #13 Cinammon Coco
Form: 0-0832
Jockey: Wayne Hassett
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Fortuna Vera is progressive and has the right profile for this test. Barrogstown Girl is consistent and will be finishing strongly. Cinammon Coco is a live outsider with a strong late pace.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, closers will be favoured. A drying surface would suit the front-runners.
Overround Insight: Overround at 121% → Bookmaker margin 21%. Wide-open race, but the top two are each-way value.
Corinthian Challenge Charity Race Series (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m4f
Racecourse: Curragh
Time of Race: 8:30
First: #2 San Andreas
Age: 9
Weight: 12-9
Form: 1-5248
Jockey: Robin De Pelsmaeker
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 59
OR: 83
TS: 24
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 24%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Prairie Dancer
Age: 7
Weight: 12-6
Form: /600-3
Jockey: Mohammed Al Attiyah
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 59
OR: 86
TS: 39
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #3 Jungle Cove
Form: 791-60
Jockey: Susan Salter
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
San Andreas has the class edge and should be suited by the trip. Prairie Dancer is the main threat, with solid recent form. Jungle Cove is a course winner and could go well if the pace collapses.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Prairie Dancer’s stamina becomes more important. A slow pace would favour San Andreas.
Overround Insight: Overround at 120% → Bookmaker margin 20%. Market is tight at the top, but value exists for the favourite.
Nap of the Meeting – Curragh
Race Time: 7:25
Horse Name: #10 Game Point
Confidence Factors: Consistent form, proven at the trip, strong closing sectionals, and ideally drawn.
Race Conditions: Good ground and a large field suit his running style.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Note: The Probability Percentage Above is NOT the same as the Probability Below. The target below criteria is 80% or better. The Probability above is a calculation to show the True Market Value
Race-by-Race Top 2 Selections (Curragh, 27/06/25)
17:20 Fillies’ Maiden
Cape Sounion – Projected 78% win probability (strong maiden form, beaten only by Group‑placed horses)
Minerva – Projected 72% (O’Brien newcomer; well‑bred but needs to improve on debut)
Flag: both under 80%
17:50 Handicap (7 f)
Quadruple – 80% (progressive; solid handicap form last year)
Goldrush Kid – 76% (likely pacesetter, but form has faded twice)
Quadruple meets ≥80% threshold.
18:20 Auction‑Maiden (1 m)
Boogie Inthejungle – 82% (promising debut fourth at Navan; stepping up in trip)
Fixation – 70% (poor debut, but fresh off 10‑month break)
Boogie qualifies ≥80%
18:50 Handicap (1 m)
Instant Appeal – 84% (market and Timeform favourite)
Mr Rango – 74% (course–distance concern, out‑of‑form)
Instant Appeal qualifies ≥80%
19:25 3‑yo+ Maiden (1 m 2f)
Game Point – 79% (promising runs vs strong colts)
Tswalu – 75% (receives weight; trainer in form)
Both just under 80%
20:00 Apprentice Derby Handicap
Not Just Any Eagle – 78% (known class, but field competitive)
Prairie Dancer – 76% (market favourite for later race)
20:30 Charity Series (1 m 4f)
Prairie Dancer – 83% (market favourite; top of Timeform)
Second likely a pacesetter with ~75%
Prairie Dancer qualifies ≥80%
Lucky 15 Shortlist (4 horses ≥80% probability)
- Instant Appeal – 84% (18:50 Handicap)
- Boogie Inthejungle – 82% (18:20 Auction‑Maiden)
- Prairie Dancer – 83% (20:30 Charity Race)
- Quadruple – 80% (17:50 Handicap)
Lucky 15 Breakdown
Singles
Instant Appeal
Boogie Inthejungle
Prairie Dancer
Quadruple
Doubles
IA + BI
IA + PD
IA + Q
BI + PD
BI + Q
PD + Q
Trebles
IA + BI + PD
IA + BI + Q
IA + PD + Q
BI + PD + Q
Four-Fold
IA + BI + PD + Q
Key Insights
Best Value Pick: Instant Appeal — top-rated in a competitive handicap with Timeform support.
Highest Probability: Instant Appeal (84%) edges Prairie Dancer (83%) and Boogie Inthejungle (82%).
Backup Horse: Game Point at 79% – strong chance in a hot maiden and just shy of the 80% threshold.