How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Class 4)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 5:42
Runners: 8
First: #8 Soca Star
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 333
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 74
TS: 72
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (5/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Justice Twice
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 92220
Jockey: Sean D Bowen
Trainer: Hilal Kobeissi
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 73
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 23% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22% (7/2 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Golden Palace
Form: —
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Soca Star brings the strongest blend of consistent form and sectional effectiveness, showing reliable pace and adaptability to the going. Justice Twice has been knocking on the door and rates a solid threat, but Soca Star’s consistent placing and higher top speed edge it. Golden Palace, from a top yard, is open to improvement and rates the best of the rest. The pace map suggests Soca Star can sit handy and pounce, with the inside draw a plus. The market narrative is tight at the top, but the AI model spots Soca Star as the only “Above Fair” value.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace collapses, Justice Twice may benefit most, while a strong headwind could bring Golden Palace closer. Should the ground firm up further, Soca Star’s proven ability on quicker surfaces will be even more valuable. A wide draw would be a negative for closers but not for these top selections.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%
This is considered high, suggesting a favourite-driven market with little value in outsiders1.
Race Name: Wellocks Part Of The William Jackson Food Group Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 6:15
Runners: 8
First: #6 Le Beau Garcon
Age: 6
Weight: 9-4
Form: 1268-1
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 75
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29% (9/4 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Ventura Express
Age: 8
Weight: 9-8
Form: -25400
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: Paul Midgley
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 7% (14/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #8 Emeralds Pride
Form: 15-654
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: Michael Dods
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Le Beau Garcon is a course specialist with a recent win and strong sectionals, making him the clear AI pick. Ventura Express, a previous winner of this race, is weighted to go well and offers each-way value at a double-figure price. Emeralds Pride is consistent and rates third best. The pace map suggests a strong early gallop, with Le Beau Garcon well positioned to track and strike late. Trainer intent is high for both the top two, and the going is ideal for their profiles.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is slower than expected, Ventura Express could control from the front. Should rain soften the ground, Emeralds Pride’s stamina becomes more relevant. Any significant draw bias would shift the advantage to those drawn low.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%
This is considered excessive, with value concentrated in the mid-market, especially for proven course specialists2.
Race Name: Ward Homes Yorkshire Selling Stakes (Class 6)
Race Distance: 1m100y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 6:50
Runners: 6
First: #4 Tropez Power
Age: 6
Weight: 10-2
Form: 598205
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 77
TS: 72
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30% (9/4 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Orbaan
Age: 10
Weight: 10-2
Form: 427323
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: David O’Meara
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (3/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Toy Soldier
Form: 676718
Jockey: P J McDonald
Trainer: George Scott
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Tropez Power drops into a seller after solid efforts in stronger company and has the best blend of class and sectionals. Orbaan is a consistent placer but lacks a winning edge at this level. Toy Soldier is inconsistent but could run into a place if the pace collapses. The race lacks depth, and the AI model suggests Tropez Power is the likeliest winner, with Orbaan the main danger.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Orbaan’s tactical speed could prove decisive. Should the ground deteriorate, Toy Soldier’s stamina may come into play. Any late market moves for Reginald Charles would merit respect.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15%
This is average, with market confidence in the top two and little support for outsiders3.
Race Name: Jacksons Of Yorkshire Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 1m100y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 7:25
Runners: 7
First: #3 Atmosphere
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 7541
Jockey: George Wood
Trainer: Richard Spencer
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 60
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33% (7/4 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Optimatum
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: 06-881
Jockey: Sean D Bowen
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (3/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Perfidia
Form: -22241
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Atmosphere escapes a penalty for a recent win and is well treated by the handicapper. Optimatum is consistent and rates the main threat, but the AI model gives the edge to Atmosphere on potential improvement. Perfidia has place claims but is unlikely to trouble the top two. The pace map shows Atmosphere can settle just off the lead, with Optimatum likely to press early.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is strong, closers like Perfidia could get involved late. Any rain would benefit Optimatum, while a slow early gallop would favour Atmosphere’s tactical speed.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is high, with the market tightly focused on the top two4.
Race Name: Green Ginger Gallop Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 1m4f23y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 5
First: #3 Tara Iti
Age: 7
Weight: 8-12
Form: 54/742
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 54
TS: 57
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29% (5/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Bearwith
Age: 7
Weight: 9-13
Form: 66-441
Jockey: P J McDonald
Trainer: Harriet Bethell
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29% (3/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Triple Force
Form: -32411
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: Craig Lidster
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Tara Iti is well handicapped on hurdles form and has the ideal profile for this trip and going. Bearwith is a consistent stayer and should be thereabouts, while Triple Force is progressive but may find this tougher. The small field means tactical speed will be crucial, and Tara Iti’s ability to travel strongly in a small group is a key asset.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race becomes tactical, Bearwith could dictate from the front. Any increase in pace will suit Tara Iti, while a slow gallop could bring Triple Force into the mix.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is average, with the market showing respect for the top two and little value elsewhere5.
Race Name: Tyre Scope Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 7f96y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 8:35
Runners: 11
First: #2 Oscar’s Sister
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 490-32
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 59
TS: 59
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22% (7/2 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Dumfries
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 616821
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17% (5/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #4 Beltane
Form: 723393
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Mark Walford
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Oscar’s Sister is in top form and has a strong record at this trip, with sectionals suggesting she can finish strongly. Dumfries is a threat on recent form and offers each-way value. Beltane is consistent and can fill the frame. The race should be run at a solid pace, which will suit Oscar’s Sister’s late kick. The market narrative is competitive, but the AI model finds a slight value edge with Dumfries.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses, Dumfries could come through late. A slow gallop would favour Beltane, while any draw bias would shift the advantage to those drawn low.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%
This is excessive, with value in the places and little for outsiders6.
Nap of the Meeting – Beverley
Race Time: 8:00
Horse Name: #3 Tara Iti
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear pace advantage
Race Conditions: Good ground and small field ideal for tactical speed and stamina
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability — Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated directly from the odds and represents the bookmaker’s view of a horse’s chance of winning. Normalized Probability adjusts these probabilities so they sum to 100%, stripping out the bookmaker’s margin to reveal the true “fair” chance of each horse.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Elite 15 V2 (L15) Selection
No Lucky 15 picks can be made today. No runners meet the strict odds, freshness, and field size criteria as of 10:12 UK, per the Odds Accuracy Directive and Key Enforcement rules.