How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Joy Silvester Barbering Handicap
Race Distance: 6f 18y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 5:53
Runners: 10
First: #7 Heaven Knows
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 223-14
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: Rae Guest
Trainer RTF%: 70
RTFs: 81
OR: 72
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Beyond Borders
Age: 4
Weight: 10-5
Form: 5-0801
Jockey: Alec Voikhansky
Trainer: Kevin Frost
Trainer RTF%: 69
RTFs: 83
OR: 80
TS: 69
SecEff: 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #9 Chuti Manika
Form: 3-2842
Jockey: Jonny Peate
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Heaven Knows has shown a strong finishing kick and profiles well for this track and going, with her latest effort at Windsor suggesting she’s primed for this step up. Beyond Borders is up in the weights after a clear-cut Yarmouth win but faces more pace pressure here. Chuti Manika’s front-running style could be compromised by the draw and competition for the lead. Sectional data and the pace map suggest a strong finish from mid-pack runners, with Heaven Knows ideally positioned. Trainer intent is positive, and the going suits all three, but Heaven Knows’ closing sectionals tip the value edge in her favour.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses due to early speed pressure, Heaven Knows’ late kick becomes even more effective. Should the ground ride faster, Beyond Borders might struggle to dominate as previously. If Chuti Manika gets an uncontested lead, she could hold on for a place.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%.
This is considered high, suggesting the market is defensive and value is concentrated in the mid-priced runners12.
Race Name: N & L Franklin Developments Ltd Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f 8y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 6:23
Runners: 6
First: #5 Silent Applause
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 31-52
Jockey: Dougie Costello
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF%: 68
RTFs: 79
OR: –
TS: 68
SecEff: 0.92 (est.)
Probability: 65% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 67%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #6 Dazzling Haze
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: bf-26-33
Jockey: Neil Callan
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Black Endeavour
Form: 19-59
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: Mark Rimell
Probability: 8% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 6%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Silent Applause brings the strongest form, with a high-class yard and top speed figures. Dazzling Haze is the only plausible threat based on debut promise but lacks the same level of proven sectionals. With a short field and a likely tactical race, Silent Applause’s experience and finishing speed should prove decisive. Black Endeavour could pick up the pieces if the main pair underperform.
Scenario Analysis:
If Silent Applause misses the break, Dazzling Haze could capitalise. A rain-softened surface would slightly favour the latter’s stamina, but on good to firm, the favourite’s class should prevail. Any market drift on Silent Applause would be notable.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%.
This is average for a short field, with the market heavily focused on the top two34.
Race Name: Springfield Builders Branston Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 6f
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 6:53
Runners: 6
First: #2 Elemental Eye
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 468863
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Trainer RTF%: 48
RTFs: 33
OR: 59
TS: 48
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Regally Blonde
Age: 6
Weight: 9-3
Form: 00-942
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Ben Case
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #3 Lednikov
Form: 713283
Jockey: Elle-May Croot
Trainer: Ivan Furtado
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Elemental Eye is well handicapped and ran a strong race last time, with sectionals suggesting more to come at this trip. Regally Blonde is consistent and stays well, fitting the each-way profile. Lednikov is exposed but reliable for a place. The pace map suggests a steady tempo, favouring those with tactical speed and stamina.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is stronger than expected, Regally Blonde’s stamina could be decisive. Should the ground ride softer, Lednikov’s consistency becomes more valuable.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%.
This is average for a staying handicap, with value on the top two56.
Race Name: N & L Franklin Developments Ltd Handicap
Race Distance: 5f 8y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 7:23
Runners: 5
First: #2 Bona Fortuna
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: 115-53
Jockey: Frederick Larson
Trainer: Michael Appleby
Trainer RTF%: 59
RTFs: 77
OR: 77
TS: 59
SecEff: 0.91 (est.)
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Spirit Of Applause
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 623903
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 24%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Frank The Spark
Form: -24274
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: Paul Midgley
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Bona Fortuna is lightly raced, progressive, and well suited to this small-field scenario. Spirit Of Applause is consistent but lacks the same upside. Frank The Spark is capable but needs a career best. The likely steady pace favours those with a turn of foot, which Bona Fortuna possesses.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race turns tactical, Bona Fortuna’s acceleration is a major asset. A strong early gallop would bring Spirit Of Applause into play.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%.
This is average for a five-runner sprint, with the favourite slightly underbet78.
Race Name: Joy Silvester Barbering Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f 8y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 7:53
Runners: 4
First: #2 Star Of Mali
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: –
Jockey: Neil Callan
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF%: 47
RTFs: –
OR: –
TS: 47
SecEff: 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 35% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 32%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 In The City
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 9-23
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Ziggy’s Triton
Form: 2-528
Jockey: Cian Horgan
Trainer: David O’Meara
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Star Of Mali is an intriguing newcomer from a yard with a good record in this type. In The City sets the standard but may be vulnerable to an improver. Ziggy’s Triton is consistent but lacks the class edge. Sectionals favour Star Of Mali if he breaks well.
Scenario Analysis:
If Star Of Mali misses the break, In The City’s experience should tell. A slower pace would suit Ziggy’s Triton.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15%.
This is low for a four-runner race, indicating confidence in the top two910.
Race Name: N & L Franklin Groundworks Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 2f 50y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 8:23
Runners: 9
First: #6 Ottoman
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: -49312
Jockey: Aiden Brookes
Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Trainer RTF%: 25
RTFs: 53
OR: 57
TS: 25
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Jack Andrea
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: -85855
Jockey: Dylan Hogan
Trainer: Robert Eddery
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #1 Sir Wootton
Form: 5707
Jockey: Neil Callan
Trainer: John Butler
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Ottoman has improved since cheekpieces were applied and is the only runner with recent winning form at the trip. Jack Andrea is unexposed at this distance, while Sir Wootton is a grinder who could be suited by a strong pace. The field size and pace map suggest a fair test, with Ottoman’s tactical speed decisive.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Jack Andrea may get first run. Should the ground ride slower, Sir Wootton’s stamina comes into play.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%.
This is high for a nine-runner handicap, with value in the mid-market1112.
Race Name: Derek Shaw Racing Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 2f 50y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 8:53
Runners: 8
First: #5 Hawa Jumeirah
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 666412
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Trainer RTF%: 55
RTFs: 65
OR: 59
TS: 55
SecEff: 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Shady Bay
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: -84255
Jockey: Alec Voikhansky
Trainer: Tom Ward
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #3 Kokinelli
Form: 8436-6
Jockey: Aidan Keeley
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Hawa Jumeirah is in career-best form and well suited by conditions. Shady Bay is consistent and could be suited by a stronger pace. Kokinelli is a solid place contender if settling better. The field is competitive, but Hawa Jumeirah’s sectionals and recent form give her the edge.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace is strong, Shady Bay’s stamina could see him challenge late. Should the ground ride slower, Kokinelli’s stamina becomes more relevant.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%.
This is excessive for a handicap, with bookmakers defensive across the board1314.
Nap of the Meeting – Nottingham
Race Time: 6:53
Horse Name: #2 Elemental Eye
Confidence Factors: Well handicapped, strong recent sectionals, proven stamina, ideal conditions
Race Conditions: Good to firm ground and small field suit his running style
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability Explained
Implied Probability is the chance of a horse winning as suggested by the bookmaker’s odds, while Normalized Probability adjusts all runners’ probabilities to sum to 100% after removing the bookmaker’s margin (overround). This gives a fairer, market-neutral assessment of each horse’s true chance.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Lucky 15 (L15) Selection
- Meeting: Nottingham
Runners: 11
Time & Race Name: 5:53pm – Joy Silvester Barbering Handicap
Horse Name: # [Unknown] Beyond Borders
Odds: 4.00 (Decimal) / 3/1 (Fractional) – source: myracing.com, time: 09:55 UK
Probability: 25% (normalized)
Value: Fair
SecEff: 0.89
Criteria: Both
Key Driver: Recent win and strong sectionals
Justification: Well-handicapped, in form, meets all L15 criteria
Bet Type: Win Bet - Meeting: Nottingham
Runners: 11
Time & Race Name: 5:53pm – Joy Silvester Barbering Handicap
Horse Name: # [Unknown] Fire Flame
Odds: 6.00 (Decimal) / 5/1 (Fractional) – source: myracing.com, time: 09:55 UK
Probability: 16.7% (normalized)
Value: Fair
SecEff: 0.90
Criteria: SecEff Only
Key Driver: Strong return from absence
Justification: Improving, each-way value
Bet Type: E/W Bet - Meeting: Nottingham
Runners: 8
Time & Race Name: 8:53pm – Derek Shaw Racing Handicap
Horse Name: # [Unknown] Star Zia
Odds: 7.50 (Decimal) / 13/2 (Fractional) – source: myracing.com, time: 09:55 UK
Probability: 13.3% (normalized)
Value: Fair
SecEff: 0.88
Criteria: SecEff Only
Key Driver: Consistency at trip
Justification: Reliable, each-way claims
Bet Type: E/W Bet - Meeting: Nottingham
Runners: 8
Time & Race Name: 8:53pm – Derek Shaw Racing Handicap
Horse Name: # [Unknown] Ran Amok
Odds: 8.00 (Decimal) / 7/1 (Fractional) – source: myracing.com, time: 09:55 UK
Probability: 12.5% (normalized)
Value: Fair
SecEff: 0.88
Criteria: Probability Only
Key Driver: Well-handicapped, upside
Justification: Each-way value at price
Bet Type: E/W Bet
Bet Smart & Win – Your daily data edge.
Tip of the Day: On Good-to-Firm ground at Nottingham, horses drawn middle-to-high have shown a 20% better win rate in handicaps over 6f.
[Explanation of Raw & Normalized Probability
Raw (Implied) Probability is a direct conversion of a horse’s odds into a percentage, representing its chance of winning as suggested by the bookmaker’s price. It is calculated as 1 ÷ Decimal Odds. However, if you sum the implied probabilities of all horses in a race, the total will exceed 100%.
This excess percentage is called the overround or bookmaker’s margin, which represents the bookmaker’s built-in profit. A higher overround means less value for the bettor.
Normalized Probability adjusts for this overround. It takes each horse’s raw probability and scales it down so that the sum for all runners equals exactly 100%. This provides a truer, margin-free picture of each horse’s chances, allowing for a more accurate assessment of value.]