How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: ripon-races.co.uk Book Now For Saturday July 19th Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C/D)(GBB)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 6:30
Runners: 8
First: #9 Popty Ping
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
Form: 11-032
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 21
OR: 63
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #8 Lexington Express
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
Form: 32-05
Jockey: Kieran O’Neill
Trainer: Alice Haynes
Trainer RTF%: 32
RTFs: –
OR: 35
TS: 32
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Just A Girl
Form: 28-6
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Popty Ping drops back to 6f after a strong 7f effort at Newcastle, showing a sharp turn of foot and a high cruising speed. Her sectionals indicate a strong finish, aligning with a SecEff near 0.89, and the O’Meara yard is in good form. Lexington Express has been consistent, but lacks the same finishing punch. Just A Girl is progressive and could feature if the pace collapses late. The market is tightly bunched at the top, but Popty Ping’s normalized probability and above-fair value make her the standout.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race is run at a stronger early pace, Just A Girl’s stamina could be more effective. Should the ground ride faster than advertised, Lexington Express may close the gap, but Popty Ping’s turn of foot gives her a tactical edge regardless of pace.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 122% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 22%
This is considered high, suggesting a favourite-driven market with little value in the mid-field runners1.
Race Name: Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 8
First: #2 Angel Army
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 14-5
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF%: 41
RTFs: –
OR: 63
TS: 41
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Balayaged
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 19-267-64
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF%: 60
RTFs: 48
OR: 79
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Monetize
Form: 31-36-027
Jockey: Harrison Shaw
Trainer: Bryan Smart
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Angel Army shaped well on debut and steps up to a mile, which should suit given her pedigree and running style. Her SecEff is strong, and the Tate stable has a solid record with similar types. Balayaged is consistent but may lack the final kick, while Monetize has shown flashes of promise but may need further. The pace should be even, with Angel Army well positioned to strike late.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Balayaged could get first run. Should the ground soften, Monetize’s stamina may play a bigger role, but Angel Army’s adaptability and tactical speed make her the safest option.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is average, indicating some value at the top end but little for outsiders1.
Race Name: Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 7:30
Runners: 11
First: #7 Jesmond Dawn
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 38-593
Jockey: Oliver Stammers
Trainer: Grant Tuer
Trainer RTF%: 33
RTFs: 68
OR: 77
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #2 Sea Regal
Age: 4
Weight: 10-2
Form: 26-883
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 48
OR: 80
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.87
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #10 Barleybrown
Form: 5-8872
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Jesmond Dawn is well handicapped and returns to a track where she posted a career-best. Her sectionals are strong, and she’s drawn to get a good tow into the race. Sea Regal is consistent and may benefit if the pace collapses. Barleybrown is on the upgrade but may find this company a bit deep. The pace map suggests a solid gallop, suiting closers like Jesmond Dawn.
Scenario Analysis:
If the field goes slow early, Sea Regal could dictate and be hard to pass. A wide draw may hinder Barleybrown’s chances if the ground rides quicker.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 124% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 24%
This is high, reflecting the open nature and competitive field1.
Race Name: City Of Ripon Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 9
First: #3 High Opinion
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 126-03
Jockey: Andrew Breslin
Trainer: Bryan Smart
Trainer RTF%: 75
RTFs: 76
OR: 86
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Equity Law
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: -47252
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 77
OR: 86
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Protest Rally
Form: 251413
Jockey: Cian Horgan
Trainer: Liam Bailey
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
High Opinion returns to a track he enjoys and is well drawn for a late run. His sectionals are among the best in the field, and the Smart yard is in flying form. Equity Law is knocking on the door but may find one too good again. Protest Rally is a pace angle but may get softened up early. The going suits all three, but High Opinion’s finishing speed is decisive.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace is frenetic, closers like High Opinion will benefit. Should the ground ride slower, Protest Rally’s stamina could come into play.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%
This is high, with the market focused on the top three, inflating outsider odds1.
Race Name: Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f10y
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 8:30
Runners: 7
First: #5 Grand Harbour
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 53053
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Trainer RTF%: 84
RTFs: 61
OR: 69
TS: 84
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Colinski
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4871
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: 53
RTFs: 50
OR: 64
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Iwantmytimewithyou
Form: 9794
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Grand Harbour is bred for this trip and has shaped as if this step up in distance will bring improvement. His sectionals suggest he’ll stay strongly, and the Prescott yard excels with similar types. Colinski is progressive but may lack the tactical speed of the selection. Iwantmytimewithyou is consistent but may be vulnerable late. The field is small, so tactical speed will be crucial.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is slow, Colinski could get first run. Should the ground ride softer, Grand Harbour’s stamina becomes even more valuable.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is average, with the market offering some value at the top end1.
Race Name: Family Day Bank Holiday Monday 25th August Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ripon
Time of Race: 9:00
Runners: 7
First: #4 Spring Corn
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 35-792
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 53
OR: 76
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Sabrimento
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 266072
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF%: 47
RTFs: 51
OR: 73
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Novamay
Form: 0-2227
Jockey: Mason Paetel
Trainer: Michael Dods
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Spring Corn improved with cheekpieces last time and looks well drawn to attack. Her sectionals are strong, and the Easterby team excels with similar profiles. Sabrimento is consistent but may lack the late speed, while Novamay is ultra-consistent but may find one too good. The field lacks depth, so early positioning will be key.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is slow, Sabrimento could dictate. Should the ground ride softer, Novamay’s stamina may see her outstay rivals.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%
This is high, with the market focusing on the leading trio1.
Nap of the Meeting – Ripon
Race Time: 6:30
Horse Name: #9 Popty Ping
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear pace advantage
Race Conditions: Good to firm ground and strong pace suit her running style
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated from the bookmaker’s odds and represents the likelihood of a horse winning as implied by the market. Normalized Probability adjusts these probabilities so that the total across all runners sums to 100%, stripping out the bookmaker’s margin (overround) to reflect the true “fair” chance of each horse winning.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Lucky 15 – Final Output (Elite 15 V2.3)
Elite 15 V2.4 is a flexible, data-driven race analysis system that ensures four selections per race using a structured tier system. Every pick is assessed using strict mathematical formulas, including Normalized Probability, Value classification, and Sectional Effectiveness. Horses are clearly ranked from fully Qualified down to NB-tagged Second Best selections, providing consistent race coverage with transparent logic — even when data strength varies.
Meeting: Ripon
Runners: 9
Time & Race Name: 20:00 City Of Ripon Handicap (Class 4)
Horse Name: #2 Equity Law
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: David Allan
Odds: 3.50 (Decimal) / 5/2 (Fractional)
Implied Probability: 28.57%
Normalized Probability: 27.1%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 68% (Est.)
Key Driver: Blinkers, strong form
Justification: Close 2nd latest, well-handicapped
Bet Type: Win Bet
Meeting: Ripon
Runners: 7
Time & Race Name: 21:00 Family Day Bank Holiday Monday 25th August Handicap (Class 6)
Horse Name: #4 Spring Corn
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: David Allan
Odds: 4.00 (Decimal) / 3/1 (Fractional)
Implied Probability: 25.00%
Normalized Probability: 24.3%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 67% (Est.)
Key Driver: Cheekpieces, 2nd at Redcar
Justification: Major player if repeating latest
Bet Type: Win Bet
Only two races at Ripon meet the Lucky 15 inclusion criteria for today. No Conditional, Fallback, or Second Best selections included.
All calculations follow strict Elite 15 V2.4 protocols. Sectional Effectiveness is estimated where not directly available. Overround and value assessments are based on the latest available odds and field sizes. All data and selections adhere to the latest public data standards and system rules.