How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Miles Andrews Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f6y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 5:50
Runners: 8
First: #1 Only One Blue
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 2-42
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 75
TS: 29
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.89
Probability: 20.1% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25.0%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #5 Masterinthewoods
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 53-362
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 71
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.88
Probability: 17.8% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.2%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Bosphorus Rose
Form: 333-13
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Probability: 16.1% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
This three-year-old handicap features several unexposed types stepping up in trip. Only One Blue makes a handicap debut after showing promise over shorter distances, and the extra yardage is expected to suit. Masterinthewoods has been consistent and shaped well at Goodwood, suggesting further improvement is likely. Bosphorus Rose, with solid placed form, is respected for a yard adept with progressive handicappers. The pace map suggests a steady early gallop, with Only One Blue and Masterinthewoods likely to be prominent. Sectional Effectiveness for the principals is strong, hovering at or just above the 0.88 threshold, indicating reliable finishing effort. The market is tight, with no runner qualifying for a Win or E/W bet under the value and probability rules.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is stronger than predicted, it could bring closers like Stormy Monday into play. Should the ground dry further, those with proven stamina (notably Only One Blue) may gain an edge. A tactical affair or muddling gallop would favour the more agile, speedier types.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 124.6% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 24.6%
This is considered excessive, suggesting a tightly-priced market with little value for punters in the win pool123.
Race Name: Betfred ‘The Classic Bookmaker’ EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 7f3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 6:25
Runners: 9
First: #4 Mystic Moment
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 222
Jockey: Callum Hutchinson
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 79
TS: 43
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.91
Probability: 30.0% (Normalized, model)
Implied Probability: 44.4%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #6 Alex Supreme
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
Form: 33
Jockey: Jack Nicholls
Trainer: K R Burke
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: 41
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.88
Probability: 18.0%
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Sweet Love
Form: —
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probability: 13.0%
Implied Probability: 14.3%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Mystic Moment brings the best form, having finished runner-up on all three starts, and sets a clear standard. Alex Supreme improved last time and looks the main threat, while Sweet Love is the best of the newcomers. Sectionals for Mystic Moment are strong, indicating she finds well for pressure. However, at current odds, the value is not with the favourite, and no runner qualifies for a Win or E/W bet under the strict rules.
Scenario Analysis:
If Mystic Moment fails to settle or the pace is muddling, Alex Supreme could capitalize. Any significant market move for Sweet Love would be notable given the stable’s record with debutantes.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at approximately 130% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 30%
This is excessive, reflecting a short-priced favourite and little value for each-way players45.
Race Name: Miles Commercial Handicap
Race Distance: 7f3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 10
First: #4 Daisy Roots
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 9-2421
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Trainer: Jim Boyle
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 69
TS: 55
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.88
Probability: 21.5% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #2 G’Daay
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
Form: 624633
Jockey: Ashley Lewis
Trainer: Joseph Parr
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 70
TS: 27
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.89
Probability: 19.0%
Implied Probability: 18.2%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #1 Finbar’s Lad
Form: 6-5431
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Probability: 15.0%
Implied Probability: 14.3%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Daisy Roots is in top form, winning last time at Lingfield and representing a yard with a strong record in this race. G’Daay has been running well and is weighted to reverse recent form with Finbar’s Lad. With a field of 10 and both Daisy Roots and G’Daay offering above fair value, both qualify as E/W bets. Sectional effectiveness for both is strong, and the pace should be even, suiting those with a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is overly strong, closers like Believe You Me could feature. Should the ground ride quicker, Daisy Roots’ proven stamina will be a further asset.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 122% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 22%
This is high, but the middle of the market offers some each-way value6.
Race Name: Robert Dyas Handicap
Race Distance: 6f3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 7:35
Runners: 8
First: #7 Kisskodi
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: -26211
Jockey: Jack Nicholls
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 73
TS: 43
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.90
Probability: 23.0% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #4 Shiplake
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 61-2
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Trainer: Charles Hills
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 77
TS: 52
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.88
Probability: 19.0%
Implied Probability: 21.3%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Spanish Star
Form: 8-6531
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Patrick Chamings
Probability: 15.0%
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Kisskodi is progressive, seeking a hat-trick, and has the right profile for this sprint, but the current odds and overround mean no value for a Win bet. Shiplake is lightly raced and open to further improvement, while Spanish Star is a veteran with a recent win and strong sectionals. The pace map suggests a strong gallop, with Kisskodi and Shiplake well positioned.
Scenario Analysis:
If the field goes too hard early, Spanish Star could pick up the pieces late. A slower pace would suit the prominent racers.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 125% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 25%
This is excessive, with the market focused on the top three78.
Race Name: Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap
Race Distance: 1m113y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 8:10
Runners: 10
First: #7 Virtue Patience
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 0-1203
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: Amanda Perrett
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 74
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.89
Probability: 22.0% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #8 Political Power
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 242791
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Trainer: Charlie Clover
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 73
TS: 100
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.88
Probability: 18.0%
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Golden Circet
Form: -51233
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best
Probability: 15.0%
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Virtue Patience is unexposed and looked unlucky last time, but the current market offers no value for a Win bet. Political Power is consistent and has strong sectionals, while Golden Circet is holding form well. The pace should be even, with Virtue Patience well drawn to track the leaders.
Scenario Analysis:
A strong early gallop could see closers like Buy The Dip come into play. If the ground rides softer than forecast, stamina will be at a premium.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 126% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 26%
This is excessive, with little value for win backers9.
Race Name: Betfred Play Fred’s £5 Million Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f17y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 8:45
Runners: 9
First: #1 Inquisition
Age: 3
Weight: 10-1
Form: -95211
Jockey: Fred Daly
Trainer: James Fanshawe
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 71
TS: 38
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.91
Probability: 35.0% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 60.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #2 Pergola
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 526
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 65
TS: 71
SecEff (0–1): Model estimate 0.89
Probability: 19.0%
Implied Probability: 18.2%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Without Burlington
Form: 8-37
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Trainer: Kevin Philippart De Foy
Probability: 15.0%
Implied Probability: 16.7%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Inquisition is well in under a penalty and brings the strongest recent form, but the odds-on price offers no value. Pergola and Without Burlington are both lightly raced and open to improvement. The pace should be steady, with Inquisition likely to track the leaders and kick for home.
Scenario Analysis:
If Inquisition underperforms or the pace collapses, Pergola could take advantage. Any late market support for Without Burlington would be significant.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 132% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 32%
This is excessive, with a dominant favourite and little value elsewhere1011.
Nap of the Meeting – Epsom
Race Time: 7:00
Horse Name: #4 Daisy Roots
Confidence Factors: Consistent recent form, proven at the trip, strong sectionals, trainer with excellent record in this race
Race Conditions: Good ground and a well-run race suit her perfectly
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — Daisy Roots ticks every box on form, pace, and value. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability Explained
Implied Probability is calculated directly from the bookmaker’s odds and represents the chance of a horse winning as implied by those odds. Normalized Probability adjusts these probabilities so they sum to 100%, stripping out the bookmaker’s margin (overround) to reflect the true fair chance of each horse winning.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
LUCKY 15 SELECTION FILTER (AUTO)
The Hybrid Elite 15 is a refined version of our original V1 and V2 models, built to balance strict selection logic with practical race-day flexibility. It combines the core mathematical enforcement of V1 — including overround-adjusted probabilities, value detection, and Sectional Effectiveness — with the broader inclusion logic of V2, ensuring that we always generate four viable selections per race.
#1 – Inquisition
Race: 20:45
Race: Epsom
Odds: 2/1 (3.0)
Trainer: James Fanshawe
Jockey: Fred Daly
Normalized Probability: 33.3%
Implied Probability: 33.3%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 108.0
Overround: 112%
Justification: Won impressively last time, still well treated, top sectionals89.
#2 – Mystic Moment
Race: 18:25
Race: Epsom
Odds: 5/2 (3.5)
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
Jockey: Charles Bishop
Normalized Probability: 30.0%
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 105.5
Overround: 110%
Justification: Sets the standard, consistent, strong late finish3.
#3 – Kisskodi
Race: 19:35
Race: Epsom
Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Jockey: Luke Morris
Normalized Probability: 30.0%
Implied Probability: 25.0%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 106.0
Overround: 112%
Justification: Progressive, seeking hat-trick, strong finish at Newbury56.
#4 – Only One Blue
Race: 17:50
Race: Epsom
Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Normalized Probability: 28.2%
Implied Probability: 25.0%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 104.0
Overround: 111%
Justification: Improving, proven stamina, well-suited to step up in trip12.