How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: DragonBet – Oncourse Service And Online EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 6:30
Runners: 11
First: #3 First Time
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 31
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Trainer RTF%: 57
RTFs: 76
OR: 88
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 18.87% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #6 Lieutenant Kije
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 46
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF%: 29
RTFs: 57
OR: 62
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 15.72% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16.67%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #9 Yes Waliim
Form: 2
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Probability: 13.48% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14.29%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
First Time sets the standard after a strong effort at Salisbury, showing himself as one of the most forward two-year-olds in the field and offering a blend of tactical speed and solid sectionals. While he emerges with the highest probability, market forces have somewhat compressed his true value, resulting in a “Below Fair” assessment — the odds match his reputation, reducing the edge. Lieutenant Kije, open to improvement, appeals on the prospect of a pace-favouring race and stable form. Yes Waliim, one of the more intriguing debutants from a trainer in fine nick, draws respect for his recent encouraging work. Conditions (good to firm in places), race rails, and light rain suggest fair going for well-balanced juveniles. The pace map implies First Time and perhaps Gharma Sutra will be prominent early, but the field’s naivety means positioning could shift rapidly approaching the final furlong.
Scenario Analysis:
If rain increases and the going eases, look for more stamina-biased horses such as Lieutenant Kije to close late, with sectionals becoming even more pivotal. A pace collapse would mean horses drawn wide (like Yes Waliim) may get an opportunity to challenge. Any market drift on First Time would make him more attractive, whereas significant support for fresh faces may suggest noteworthy stable confidence. Should pace be moderate, it merely enhances the chances of an on-speed ride, reaffirming First Time’s advantage.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 106.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 6.00%
This is considered average, suggesting prices are relatively tight near the top but not extreme, and value seekers should focus on mid-priced runners for overlays rather than chasing the favourite.
Race Name: Dragonbet Proud Sponsors Of Ffos Las Racing Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 5
First: #2 Conscript
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 3-
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Clive Cox
Trainer RTF%: 46
RTFs: 73
OR: —
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 35.65% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 36.36%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Peter The Wolf
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 66-335
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Trainer RTF%: 50
RTFs: 83
OR: 81
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 29.35% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30.77%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Wild Clary
Form: 2244-9
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Probability: 16.85% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.00%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Conscript’s seasonal debut was deeply promising, finding the line strongly and looking like a horse who would come on for that fresh run. He’s second-up, strikes a moderate maiden, and has form ties to higher-rated, early-season handicappers. His sectionals profile is robust (SecEff 0.90), and the Cox stable is clicking. Peter The Wolf, the market leader on ratings and tips, remains a maiden after 8 starts and may lack the killer punch, despite respectable consistency. Wild Clary ran respectably in stronger races last year but made a lacklustre reappearance. The strength of this small field is modest; pace projects moderately, which plays to prominent racers. Conscript looks the better value at current terms by virtue of potential fairness in price versus ability.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the pace quicken early (if Adaay Dancing presses hard), it may bring stamina into play, favouring Wild Clary’s better juvenile evidence. Peter The Wolf remains vulnerable to anything showing real improvement and risks getting mugged late if Rossa Ryan rides Conscript cold for one run. A further market drift on the jolly (Peter The Wolf) would make Conscript an even stronger play; adverse ground moves would assist Wild Clary.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 108.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 8.00%
Above average margin for a small field, especially as favourite and second-favourite compress prices, leaving little room for e/w or speculative value.
Race Name: Pricing By Real Bookmakers dragonbet.co.uk Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 7:30
Runners: 8
First: #7 Bama Lama
Age: 7
Weight: 9st 2lb
Form: –77063
Jockey: George Wood
Trainer: Rod Millman
Trainer RTF%: 47
RTFs: 62
OR: 70
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 24.12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.00%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Roach Power
Age: 6
Weight: 9st 4lb
Form: 973334
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Michael Wigham
Trainer RTF%: 40
RTFs: 66
OR: 72
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 20.11% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25.00%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Cabeza De Llave
Form: –06742
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Trainer: Michael Attwater
Probability: 15.27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.00%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Bama Lama has an affinity for C&D, operates well on any surface, and lands in a weak race off a competitive mark. Her recent runs, especially the close-up finishes, point towards readiness, and sectionals reveal she finishes her races off with above-average efficiency (SecEff 0.89). Roach Power is a perennial placer, possibly vulnerable to a late finisher but appeals for exacta purposes. Cabeza De Llave regularly finds one or two too good but will be on the speed; he risks being swamped late. Junction of rails and going (good to firm patches with light rain) is unlikely to blight hold-up types. Bama Lama rates a fair win opportunity given her value on normalized probability.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the ground ease after showers, Roach Power’s chances improve, especially if track plays fairer to on-speed runners. If the race turns tactical, Cabeza De Llave might steal more than expected from the front. Lightning early splits and any pace collapse would further strengthen Bama Lama’s close-from-midfield style.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 113.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 13.00%
High overround, especially pronounced in competitive handicaps; value chasers must avoid anything under 4/1 unless there’s a clear edge.
Race Name: dragonbet.co.uk Born From The Betting Ring Handicap
Race Distance: 2m
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 4
First: #2 Beggarman
Age: 8
Weight: 9st 6lb
Form: 44-591
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Trainer RTF%: 75
RTFs: 59
OR: 75
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 41.05% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 47.62%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #4 Adrian
Age: 8
Weight: 8st 9lb
Form: 0-7342
Jockey: Aidan Keeley
Trainer: Bernard Llewellyn
Trainer RTF%: 60
RTFs: 52
OR: 74
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 33.41% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 38.10%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Mind Hunter
Form: 34/0-7
Jockey: Shay Farmer
Trainer: Bernard Llewellyn
Probability: 17.26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 10.00%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Beggarman arrives in solid order following a decisive win. Sectional data over marathon trips show his stamina counts, and Morrison’s yard brings them along well for these targets. Price compresses his edge, and only a late market drift would make this a value win play. Adrian, for all his C&D plodder traits, is running close to form but is win-shy and generally sets up races for closers. Mind Hunter rates best of the outsiders, with bits of historic promise. With such a shallow field, scenario modelling is thin — on standard pace, Beggarman remains a likely winner, but current implieds make him unplayable.
Scenario Analysis:
Should Beggarman fluff the break, it opens a perfect chance for Adrian to control from the front. Any further rain benefits those proven at the trip, with Mind Hunter last of the stamina plodders and marginally improving if race turns attritional.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 111.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 11.00%
Above average for a four-runner event; the tight market on the top pair offers next to no win value — best watched unless late live prices shift.
Race Name: Best Odds Guaranteed On dragonbet.co.uk Handicap
Race Distance: 1m3f209y
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 8:30
Runners: 9
First: #3 Whatsgoingonmarvin
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 11lb (6lb ex)
Form: 060-11
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Trainer RTF%: 81
RTFs: 69
OR: 79
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 44.05% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 53.33%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #9 Respiro Solitario
Age: 3
Weight: 8st 11lb
Form: 3-3431
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: William Muir & Chris Grassick
Trainer RTF%: 67
RTFs: 54
OR: 69
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22.46% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26.67%
Value: Below Fair
Third: #8 Magic Runner
Form: 2-4334
Jockey: Callum Hutchinson
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Probability: 11.33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 8.33%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Whatsgoingonmarvin has been transformed since handicapping, relishing trips beyond 1m2f and travelling powerfully in the finish last time. SecEff above 0.90 signals well-paced efforts. However, today’s odds reflect the winning streak fully. Respiro Solitario also comes here in form, but looks tightly priced against a much more progressive opponent. Magic Runner, lightly raced and holding steady form, is the likely value for tricast seekers especially if a stronger pace materializes than the market expects. A true run race keeps the favourite in command, but his value has been entirely stripped out.
Scenario Analysis:
If Whatsgoingonmarvin underperforms or pace is falsely run, the door opens for Magic Runner and Breathe Again to pick up the pieces. Testing ground would not inconvenience the leaders, but a draw bias to centre will be important if rain softens the inner lanes.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20.00%
Excessive overround, book dominated by the favourite with all value stripped out; supporting outsiders only justified if late value emerges or place terms are extended.
Race Name: Download The DragonBet App “Confined” Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Ffos Las
Time of Race: 9:00
Runners: 7
First: #7 Maundy Thursday
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 0lb
Form: 867544
Jockey: William Cox
Trainer: Tom Dascombe
Trainer RTF%: 44
RTFs: 48
OR: 60
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22.14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Warrior Lion
Age: 5
Weight: 9st 11lb
Form: 557873
Jockey: George Wood
Trainer: Jennie Candlish
Trainer RTF%: 39
RTFs: 40
OR: 65
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19.60% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.22%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Zambezi Magic
Form: 36-575
Jockey: Jordan Williams
Trainer: Bernard Llewellyn
Probability: 16.51% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14.29%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
This is a weak confined handicap, with none of the field having won in 2025. That said, Maundy Thursday, a lightly raced 3yo, finds himself with optimal race conditions. His latest formline is solid in context, and a high-enough SecEff (0.88) suggests the step up in trip is no barrier. Warrior Lion, for all his effort since transfer to Candlish, is a long-time maiden and class ceiling is clear. Zambezi Magic is consistent at this level and rated a tricast angle value. All in, Maundy Thursday rates a marginal win play because the value line is nearly met.
Scenario Analysis:
Any increase in early tempo suits the finishers, but if the race is slowly run Warrior Lion could prove difficult to catch. If rain softens the ground, stamina may become a greater factor, inviting Zambezi Magic into the late frame.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115.00% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15.00%
Heavy overround for a weak handicap, caution advised on win singles unless late price movements introduce overlays.
Nap of the Meeting – Ffos Las
Race Time: 7:30
Horse Name: #7 Bama Lama
Confidence Factors: Proven C&D record, holding form, high SecEff, drawn to gain optimal run behind likely contested pace
Race Conditions: Good to firm in places with potential for late showers ideal for a strong finisher; small field minimizes traffic risks
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized is the fair chance of a horse winning after all probabilities in a race are scaled to add up to 100%, removing the bookmaker’s ‘overround’ (their built-in profit margin).
Implied Probability is the win chance reflected directly in a horse’s market odds, before factoring out the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability