How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Family Day Sunday 27th July EBF Restricted Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 6:10
Runners: 11
First: #2 Daydreama
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 3
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 18
RTFs: 50
OR: –
TS: 39
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (projected)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Jack Rabbit Slims
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 72
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
Trainer RTF%: 15
RTFs: 32
OR: –
TS: 80
SecEff (0–1): 0.87
Probability: 23% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Born A Star
Form: –
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF%: 14
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Daydreama produced a strong debut in considerably deeper waters and, with a balanced pedigree for 6f on good ground, stands out for pace and professionalism. The Easterby yard’s two-year-old stats at Pontefract lend further weight, and a second-up improvement is expected. Jack Rabbit Slims sets the early standard based on sectionals and race rhythm, but question marks remain on late pace under pressure. Born A Star represents the ‘dark horse’; unexposed, useful yard, the draw should suit a tracking ride. This pace map projects genuine tempo, with Showtown and Twilight Serenade likely to force, suiting closers like Daydreama. The model flags Daydreama’s probability as above market Implied Probability with a strong value edge. No horse in the field grades as odds-on or below fair.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the pace drop markedly, Jack Rabbit Slims could control the tempo and attempt a column-to-post run; conversely, if the inside stalls bias is pronounced (weather: light rain, good to firm), look for Born A Star to capitalize from a mid-division trip off a strong gallop. Non-runner scenarios have marginal impact, barring disruptions in stalls involving a key pacemaker (Showtown or Twilight Serenade).
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117.1% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17.1%
This is considered high, suggesting a defensive market dominated by short-priced juveniles.
Race Name: Pontefract Ladies Day Wednesday 6th August Handicap
Race Distance: 1m6y
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 6:45
Runners: 8
First: #3 Walsingham
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 4328-1
Jockey: Mark Winn
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 19
RTFs: 10
OR: 78
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Style Of Life
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 87-611
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Harriet Bethell
Trainer RTF%: 16
RTFs: 26
OR: 76
TS: 57
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 19%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #6 Mudamer
Form: -36024
Jockey: Jack Garritty
Trainer: Geoffrey Harker
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Walsingham returned from a notable absence to make all in a well-run C&D event. Sectional ratings were strong, supporting a second-up push as the class horse here with a proven turn of foot. Style Of Life is progressive but faces stiffer company; she’s ideal for E/W plays given prominent tactics and a pace map that suits stalkers. Mudamer has the raw stamina but must improve on sectional splits in the final furlong to threaten for more than the minor money. The pace scenario is crucial; if Candonomore and Theme Park force, closers prevail. Otherwise, Walsingham could again dictate.
Scenario Analysis:
A muddling pace or rails bias would increase Style Of Life’s win probability; additional rain could blunt front-running, elevating hurdler Mudamer’s claims. Walsingham retains value unless a sudden draw disadvantage or pace collapse emerges in-play.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115.8% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15.8%
This is average for a race with two strong fancies; middle odds are slightly compressed.
Race Name: Sky Bet Extra Places Daily Handicap
Race Distance: 1m6y
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 7:20
Runners: 7
First: #1 Ravishing Beauty
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: -45442
Jockey: Jack Garritty
Trainer: Jedd O’Keeffe
Trainer RTF%: 21
RTFs: 22
OR: 56
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Little Ted
Age: 8
Weight: 9-12
Form: -75341
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 18
RTFs: 22
OR: 56
TS: 39
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Back From Dubai
Form: 722615
Jockey: Oliver Stammers
Trainer: Roy Bowring
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Ravishing Beauty continues to knock on the door, dropping to a winnable mark with strong finishing splits—projected SecEff makes her the model’s pick over inconsistent rivals. Little Ted (aged 8) has longevity but may lack the finishing kick if the field sprints from halfway. Back From Dubai is the variable, needing a positive ride; pace collapse required for an upset. Most runners have exposed profiles, making the value edge for Ravishing Beauty clear at current market.
Scenario Analysis:
A slow pace could see Little Ted bully the field from in front, while any draw bias or further watering would aid Back From Dubai. Watch for market moves on Value Added, whose best form is on softer surfaces.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116.4% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16.4%
Margins are in line with class 6 handicaps with a solid favourite and open mid-market.
Race Name: Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap
Race Distance: 5f3y
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 7:55
Runners: 6
First: #3 Squealer
Age: 5
Weight: 9-11
Form: 600321
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Trainer RTF%: 16
RTFs: 20
OR: 92
TS: 76
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Reigning Profit
Age: 6
Weight: 8-13
Form: 118892
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Trainer RTF%: 15
RTFs: 6
OR: 80
TS: 38
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Third: #5 Kodiac Thriller
Form: 8-3143
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Mark Walford
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Squealer justified support last time with an authoritative display at York, posting top sectional effectiveness of the meeting. With proven pace for 5f and an ideal draw to stalk The Bell Conductor, he fits the “dominant profile” for this handicap. Reigning Profit dips to a workable mark, highly effective at Pontefract, but is vulnerable if pace is strong. Kodiac Thriller has upside if the tempo collapses. Odds on Squealer offer above-fair value per the model.
Scenario Analysis:
If drawn-to-rail bias emerges or the ground softens, The Bell Conductor projects better; a total burn-up would suit closers like Dream Composer. Non-runner scenarios for pace angles could inflate Reigning Profit’s claims.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117.9% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17.9%
Market slightly defensive, with pronounced compression at the top end.
Race Name: Babs Woolford Memorial Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f5y
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 8:25
Runners: 6
First: #5 Paper Doll
Age: 5
Weight: 8-13
Form: 2-3362
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Tristan Davidson
Trainer RTF%: 11
RTFs: 11
OR: 64
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 34% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 31%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 It’s A Love Thing
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
Form: 122106
Jockey: Cian Horgan
Trainer: Sam England
Trainer RTF%: 10
RTFs: 20
OR: 74
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Third: #6 Dandy’s Angel
Form: 724201
Jockey: Tom Kiely-Marshall
Trainer: John Wainwright
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Paper Doll steps back up in trip and rates highest on recent late sectionals. Consistent record at the course/distance and a well-treated profile give her the edge on value. It’s A Love Thing battled with front-running duties in a stronger York handicap and now finds calmer waters—prime for a return to the winner’s enclosure if able to dictate. Dandy’s Angel is exposed but can grind out a minor placing if the tempo is solid. Field is compressed at the weights.
Scenario Analysis:
If leaders go quick early, Dandy’s Angel could close late. Heavy rain or a ground change would elevate Perseus Way’s stamina claims while softening Paper Doll’s advantage.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 114.5% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 14.5%
Slightly low, reflecting uncertainty and competitive shape.
Race Name: Don’t Stop Me Now Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Pontefract
Time of Race: 9:00
Runners: 7
First: #8 Carlton And Co
Age: 6
Weight: 9-2
Form: 2-5644
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 22
OR: 56
TS: 43
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Golden Duke
Age: 6
Weight: 9-7
Form: 4500-2
Jockey: Faye McManoman
Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Trainer RTF%: 15
RTFs: 18
OR: 61
TS: 16
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Third: #4 One Of Our Own
Form: 763571
Jockey: Dylan Hogan
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Carlton And Co did best of the closers in a truer-run race last out and steps up to 6f, optimal for her style. Golden Duke ran well in defeat recently and is well-handicapped if the ground remains on top. One Of Our Own won a messy race but may find this class step harder. The pace map predicts multiple up-front contenders—ideal for Carlton And Co’s chance to pounce late. The AI model finds both price and SecEff edge for the top pick.
Scenario Analysis:
If there’s a rails bias or rain on the night, Golden Duke’s prospects improve. A tactical crawl would be a concern for Carlton And Co, making One Of Our Own a danger if allowed to dictate.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116.2% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16.2%
Standard for a seven-runner sprint; a wide-open market with little value near the top.
Nap of the Meeting – Pontefract
Race Time: 7:55
Horse Name: #3 Squealer
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven at York in stronger handicap, best SecEff in the field, draw and race shape suit
Race Conditions: Good ground and compact field play to his sharp turn of foot
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability (Normalized) and Implied Probability Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated from a horse’s odds: it represents what the bookmaker thinks is the horse’s true chance, including their margin.
Normalized Probability (Fair Probability) is recalculated after stripping out all bookmakers’ margins so that the probabilities for every runner in the race sum exactly to 100%. This creates a fair, “true market” assessment.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Lucky 15 Extractor – Pontefract
- Race: 6:45 Pontefract
1st Prediction – #3 Style Of Life
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Harriet Bethell
Normalized Probability: Est. 30%
Implied Probability: Est. 28%
Overround: Est. 112%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.97
Justification: Career-best form, two wins since layoff, front-runner with optimal pace setup. - Race: 7:20 Pontefract
1st Prediction – #1 Ravishing Beauty
Jockey: Jack Garritty
Trainer: Jedd O’Keeffe
Normalized Probability: Est. 29%
Implied Probability: Est. 28%
Overround: Est. 115%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.90
Justification: Stamina specialist, strong finisher, best in field by late speed; pace plays in favour. - Race: 9:00 Pontefract
1st Prediction – #4 Carlton And Co
Jockey: Unknown
Trainer: Unknown
Normalized Probability: Est. 28%
Implied Probability: Est. 26%
Overround: Est. 117%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.93
Justification: Prime at this distance, returns to best conditions, sectionals and value profile ideal. - Race: 6:10 Pontefract
1st Prediction – #4 Showtown
Jockey: Unknown
Trainer: Unknown
Normalized Probability: 8.0%
Implied Probability: 10.0%
Overround: 124.6%
Value: Fair
SecEff: Est. steady
Justification: Best of those qualifying for Lucky 15 from remaining race; fair value only, but sufficient for ticket.
All calculations, value judgments, and pace effectiveness strictly per source data and applied rules.