How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Starman At Tally Ho Stud British EBF Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 6:00
Runners: 7
First: #4 Lost Signal
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 8
Jockey: John Fahy
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF%: 18%
RTFs: Notable uplifts in 2yo returns
OR: –
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): Estimated 0.90
Probability: 41% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 47% (11/10 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Probability only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #7 Lovethiswayagain
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 324
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Trainer RTF%: 19%
RTFs: 2025 fillies striking early
OR: –
TS: 42
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 36% (13/8 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Probability only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Akho Mezzna
Form: –
Jockey: Dylan Hogan
Trainer: Jack Jones
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 11% (8/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Lost Signal, the clear market pick, debuts with a strong Newbury run in the book and profiles with speed relative to this field, though the price is compressed given a warm market. Lovethiswayagain is next best, having shown finishing ability and is well-drawn, with Akho Mezzna the best outsider on breeding. Both lead horses have above-average sectional effectiveness for 2yo debutants, but slim odds do not signal betting value. The going (good to firm) suits the leaders, and with several unexposed types pace is expected to be set from mid-to-high draws.
Scenario Analysis:
If an unexpected downpour softens the ground, expect advantage to swing towards later runners and bolt-up potential for newcomers with stamina (such as Foothold). Any drift in the market for Lost Signal brings Akho Mezzna into each-way territory.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is considered high, suggesting “tight favourite-driven market” with suppressed odds on top contenders.
Race Name: Madar Corporation Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 6:30
Runners: 4
First: #1 Addison Grey
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 1-7
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Clive Cox
Trainer RTF%: 22%
RTFs: Proven in novice grade
OR: 87
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 49% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 50% (Evens odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Probability only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #2 Able Bay
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: h1
Jockey: John Fahy
Trainer: Malcolm Saunders
Trainer RTF%: 7%
RTFs: Improving three-year-olds
OR: –
TS: –
SecEff (0–1): 0.885
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33% (2/1 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Probability only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Scent Of May
Form: 9-
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Henry Candy
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 10% (10/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Addison Grey sets the standard after a striking seasonal comeback and has sectional data a notch above the field. With Saffie Osborne up, tactics will favour a prominent sit, and the small field amplifies the chance for the on-pacer to dominate. There is minimal value at current prices for the two market leaders. Able Bay comes in off a win but still has more to prove. The lack of depth means Scent Of May could pick up late for a place.
Scenario Analysis:
A change to a stronger headwind may benefit closers like Lady Of Killarney, while any market drift on Addison Grey’s price (if reaching 2.10+) would switch assessment to Above Fair.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 113% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 13%
This is considered average, due to the short field inflating the favourite’s market hold.
Race Name: Bob Evans Memorial Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 5
First: #1 Em Four
Age: 3
Weight: 9-11
Form: 604441
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Trainer RTF%: 15%
RTFs: Improving
OR: 75
TS: 64
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 31% (9/4 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Silent Flame
Age: 7
Weight: 9-4
Form: 00-701
Jockey: Jack Callan (7)
Trainer: Rod Millman
Trainer RTF%: 16%
RTFs: Recent spike in form
OR: 63
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (3/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #4 The Bitter Moose
Form: 700524
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Patrick Chamings
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13% (7/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Em Four is a late improver who acts particularly well on a quick surface, found to have the highest SecEff in the field. Silent Flame’s latest win signals a horse trending well in its mark. The pace is most likely dictated by Delagate This Lord but the pair above are best placed to capitalize on any strong fractions. Recent splits suggest both Em Four and Silent Flame are hold-up types who benefit if the pace collapses early.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground firms further, The Bitter Moose and Silent Flame’s stamina edge could tell late. Any weak pace scenario would boost Delagate This Lord to podium potential.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is considered high, favoring established contenders with “middle odds slightly inflated”.
Race Name: Happy 60th Birthday Martin Bath Handicap
Race Distance: 1m1f201y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 7:30
Runners: 6
First: #1 Dayzee
Age: 5
Weight: 10-1
Form: -97501
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Paul Attwater
Trainer RTF%: 12%
RTFs: Modest
OR: 77
TS: 83
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (7/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Crystal Mariner
Age: 5
Weight: 9-10
Form: 862993
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Trainer RTF%: 15%
RTFs: Stays on
OR: 72
TS: 64
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22% (9/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Third: #4 Patsy Snugfit
Form: -81431
Jockey: George Downing
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16% (6/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Dayzee returns to ideal conditions (quick ground, small field) after a bold front-running win last time. She’s tactically versatile, and her sectional data is top for the field. Crystal Mariner is ultra-consistent but lacks a killer turn of foot. The pace scenario is moderate, and those ridden near the speed (Dayzee and Patsy Snugfit) should profit from the set-up.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace slackens, Tribal Wisdom could run into a place as a closer. Softer ground could disadvantage Dayzee, swinging value to the stamina-laden Crystal Mariner.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 114% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 14%
This is considered average, with “underlying value at the top end and fair odds by comparison”.
Race Name: Madar Corporation “Proudly Supporting Salisbury Racecourse” Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f5y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 4
First: #3 Jet Black
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 7-6212
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: 21%
RTFs: Stable strong middle-dist
OR: 70
TS: 46
SecEff (0–1): 0.94
Probability: 39% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 41% (11/8 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Twilight Moon
Age: 3
Weight: 8-12
Form: 6-8323
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Marcus Tregoning
Trainer RTF%: 15%
RTFs: Improving
OR: 64
TS: 81
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 32% (2/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Third: #1 John T
Form: 7-220
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Jonathan Portman
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 19% (3/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Jet Black is a progressive sort in staying handicaps, topping both the pace splits and recent outright speed figures. Twilight Moon continues to improve with each run and rates an obvious threat if Jet Black sets too strong a gallop. John T lacks the finishing punch but could benefit from any battle between the top two. Small field limits each-way prospects.
Scenario Analysis:
If pace is muddling or Jet Black is taken on, Twilight Moon’s late dash is advantaged. Rain could be a curveball, improving the claims of stamina-centric John T.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 112% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 12%
This is considered low, reflecting “open betting and positive position-taking on progressive types”.
Race Name: Symonds Event Catering Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 8:30
Runners: 10
First: #9 Lambournghini
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 024113
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: David Evans
Trainer RTF%: 15%
RTFs: Consistent
OR: 51
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17% (5/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #4 Oasis Sunrise
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 542441
Jockey: J F Egan
Trainer: Grace Harris
Trainer RTF%: 11%
RTFs: Solid at the trip
OR: 59
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16% (11/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Third: #5 We’renotreallyhere
Form: 035152
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Trainer: Daniel Steele
Probability: 14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 11% (7/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Large field, lively undercard pace projection. Lambournghini stands out for recent consistency in similar company and is well-drawn for a prominent tactical ride. Oasis Sunrise handles the trip and ground perfectly. We’renotreallyhere has improvement off a workable mark and will be picking his way through tired horses. With ten runners and decent odds, Lambournghini and Oasis Sunrise both qualify as value each-way plays.
Scenario Analysis:
A pace collapse would suit closers like Valadero or King Of The Dance. Drying ground could help plodders make late gains.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 124% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 24%
This is considered excessive, with “favourite/outsider bias and widespread margin inflation down the field”.
Nap of the Meeting – Salisbury
Race Time: 7:00
Horse Name: #1 Em Four
Confidence Factors: On the up, proven sectionals, quick surface ideal, best recent figures in the field.
Race Conditions: Fast ground and control of tempo perfect for his efficient cruising style.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability — Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated from the bookmaker odds and reflects the bookmaker’s assessment of each horse’s chances, before the bookmaker’s margin is accounted for. The Normalized Probability adjusts these probabilities so that the sum for all runners equals 100% (and effectively strips out the bookmaker’s margin), expressing the real, ‘fair’ chance of each horse as estimated from market pricing.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability