How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5
Race Name: Get Best Odds Guaranteed With BetVictor ‘Newcomers’ Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 17:30
Runners: 11
Class: Cl4
First: #8 Secret History
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: —
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF%: (Est. 19%)
RTFs: (Est. 17%)
OR: —
TS: 73
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (model-based debut)
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (Based on 4/1 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #10 Touleen
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: —
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Trainer RTF%: (Est. 15%)
RTFs: (Est. 16%)
OR: —
TS: 86
SecEff (0–1): 0.91 (model)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18% (Based on 9/2 odds)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #2 Corallience
Form: —
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: David Menuisier
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14% (Based on 6/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
A fascinating fillies’ maiden with unexposed prospects. Secret History (by Lope de Vega) debuts for a yard excelling with debutantes and shows up well on the clock in home gallops (SecEff modelled elite for a 2yo). Touleen, another with a top debut profile, is by a sire whose progeny peak on fast ground, and her stall 7 draw ensures a clear run mid-pack. Corallience, strongly fancied by the market and noted for her trainer’s record (21% strike-rate with 2yo newcomers), blends pedigree and yard form.With the rail movements making it slightly faster up the middle, this could be tactical. The top two combine best probabilities, strong sectionals, and model out as win value. It pays to side with those with pace and proven yard intent.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground quickens further, the lead may become more decisive, favouring those drawn centre-to-high. A fast pace would test debut stamina, possibly benefiting stronger late finishers like Corallience. Any significant paddock positives for those three would only bolster their positions.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered average to high, suggesting “bookmakers uncertain, plenty of scope for value on lesser-known debutantes.”
Race Name: Daily Bet Boosts At BetVictor Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 18:05
Runners: 8
Class: Cl4
First: #1 Miss Cartesian
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 1-21
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF%: Est. 22%
RTFs: 19%
OR: 85
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 37% (Based on evens/11-8 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #2 Saariselka
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 2-2209
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Ed Walker
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15% (Based on 6/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Lady Wingalong
Form: 187552
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: David Evans
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15% (Based on 7/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Miss Cartesian is unexposed, form is progressive, and she has posted superior sectionals in prior runs (SecEff 0.93, strongest in field). However, her odds-on price strips out any margin, offering no edge for a play. Saariselka is a closer who needs the leaders to overdo it and may offer E/W value, though field size dims that attractiveness. Lady Wingalong sets solid fractions but faces others with better closing stats.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the pace collapse, look for something to run on late—likely Saariselka (given proven stamina). A dawdle, alternatively, keeps Miss Cartesian in control. No discernible market bias; avoid at short odds.
Overround Insight:
This market is 114% overround → Bookmaker margin: 14%
Interpret as “tight favourite-driven market; middling value outside top two.”
Race Name: Download The BetVictor App Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 18:40
Runners: 11
Class: Cl4
First: #1 Golden Redemption
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 058733
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: 18%
RTFs: 20%
OR: 76
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33% (Based on 2/1 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Star Of Mali
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 32
Jockey: James Doyle
Trainer: James Tate
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21% (Based on 7/2 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Third: #9 Raveena
Form: 8-4
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: Jack Channon
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17% (Based on 5/1 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Golden Redemption brings the top proven speed; recent sectionals justify the model rating but his price means the implied edge is negative. Star Of Mali and Raveena have positive development angles but likewise are offered short. With all prominent market leaders below fair value, the field’s value lies in longer-priced unexposed runners. Overall a “no play,” despite favourable sectionals.
Scenario Analysis:
If early pace is excessive, opens the door for closers (Raveena). A steady gallop cements the chances for the favourite, but value’s still elusive.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% overround → Bookmaker margin: 17%
Lopsided to short prices, with little scope for edge at the head of the market.
Race Name: Pump Technology Wastewater Solutions Handicap
Race Distance: 5f34y
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 19:15
Runners: 12
Class: Cl5
First: #12 Filly’s Last Lady
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 49-711
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Keiran Burke
Trainer RTF%: 12%
RTFs: 14%
OR: 63
TS: 25
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (Based on 4/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #1 Moe’s Legacy
Age: 4
Weight: 9-13
Form: 644111
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Ronald Harris
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16% (Based on 5/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #2 Aces Wild
Form: 382421
Jockey: Taryn Langley
Trainer: Adrian Wintle
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17% (Based on 11/2 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
A competitive sprint with recent winners holding sway. Filly’s Last Lady comes in off a career-best, records a strong SecEff for the class, and lands just on the border of positive value. Moe’s Legacy, a progressive type, could easily come late off a fast pace. Aces Wild is honest but slightly underpriced.
Scenario Analysis:
A burn-up up front aids closers like Moe’s Legacy; a soft lead favours Filly’s Last Lady. Conditions likely to favour proven 5f winners with stamina for a strong finish.
Overround Insight:
Market runs 116% overround → Bookmaker margin: 16%
Typical for a wide-open sprint handicap; each way terms fair, but no standouts.
Race Name: Gold Scaffolders Handicap
Race Distance: 2m110y
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 19:45
Runners: 8
Class: Cl4
First: #8 Deep Water Bay
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 012161
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott
Trainer RTF%: 23%
RTFs: 18%
OR: 80
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29% (Based on 13/8 odds)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Percy Shelley
Age: 6
Weight: 9-12
Form: 736322
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: James Owen
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17% (Based on 11/4 odds)
Value: Fair
Third: #1 Good Show
Form: 3180/6
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15% (Based on 5/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Deep Water Bay’s profile screams progressive stayer; his sectionals over this trip standout and hint at even more to come from an improving mark. Percy Shelley is ultra-consistent but lacks the same upside. Good Show is unexposed at staying trips and could spring a surprise if stamina is drawn out.
Scenario Analysis:
Should there be a relentless gallop, Good Show may be exposed for stamina; if a dawdle, sit-sprint suits Deep Water Bay and Percy Shelley. Track bias to those handy not ruling out a mild upset.
Overround Insight:
Market implies 113% → Bookmaker margin: 13%
A “tight” market, value best with likely winner or a small each way.
Race Name: Racehorse Ownership From £25 At racingclub.com Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f
Racecourse: Newbury
Time of Race: 20:15
Runners: 14
Class: Cl5
First: #5 Lightning Touch
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 44/52
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer: Roger Varian
Trainer RTF%: 17%
RTFs: 15%
OR: 72
TS: 56
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (Based on 3/1 odds)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Percy Jones
Age: 6
Weight: 9-8
Form: 3-8242
Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Trainer: Mark Loughnane
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15% (Based on 5/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Third: #10 Dibble Dabble
Form: -25217
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Trainer: James Ferguson
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14% (Based on 6/1 odds)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
A trappy finale. Lightning Touch, unexposed and bred to improve for the trip, represents a classy yard but is overbet at her current price. Percy Jones is consistent and likely to give his running. Dibble Dabble’s past efforts suggest he’ll be competitive for minor honours. Big field makes this a proper test. SecEff data reinforces Lightning Touch’s stamina, but price not playable.
Scenario Analysis:
A strong gallop may expose stamina flaws in some rivals; low draw can be beneficial, suiting a stalk-and-pounce type if pace is average. Market likely to move late based on paddock and going updates.
Overround Insight:
Market at 119% overround → Bookmaker margin: 19%
Very high margin; bookmakers clearly cautious about uncertain unexposed types.
Nap of the Meeting – Newbury
Race Time: 19:45
Horse Name: #8 Deep Water Bay
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear stamina edge, model-topping SecEff
Race Conditions: Good to firm ground and small field ideal for tactical pace scenario
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability – ExplanationImplied Probability is the chance of a horse winning as suggested by the bookmaker’s odds (e.g., if odds are 4/1, Implied Probability is 1/5 = 20%).
Probability (Normalized) strips out bookmaker overround and normalizes all market odds so that their probabilities sum to 100% — representing the “fair” assessment of each horse’s chance according to market prices.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability