How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
“Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5”.
Race 1
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services Road Haulage Hustle EBF ‘Newcomers’ Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Newmarket (July)
Time of Race: 5:20
Runners: 9
Class: Cl4
First: #1 Al Zanati
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: —
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF%: 32%�
RTFs: High for stable
OR: —
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (model-estimate, leading yard newcomer)
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 36%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #6 Leone Alato
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: —
Jockey: James Doyle
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF%: 32%
RTFs: High for stable
OR: —
TS: 53
SecEff: 0.88 (model-estimate)
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #5 King’s Trust
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: —
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF%: 10%
OR: —
TS: 58
SecEff: 0.87 (estimate)
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
A high-quality renewal with top stables well-represented. AL ZANATI is top on breeding, yard, and market confidence but the price and above-bookmaker overround (approx. 112%) mean the normalized probability is notably less value than the raw implied, undermining edge. LEONE ALATO has strong model credentials and meets “Both” qualification; the Gosden’s KING’S TRUST appeals for an each way given price/field. Appleby’s two likely track each other and fit the going by pedigree. Watch for market late shifts.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground quickens further, Appleby’s types usually benefit; if it comes up stiff, stamina influences like King’s Trust (Gosden/Moore) come stronger. If market support lines up late for any runner, adjust emphasis there.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 112% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 12%. This is average for this class, reflecting risk spread across high-profile debutants and little early punter conviction.
Race 2
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services Ocean Freight Frenzy Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 5:55
Runners: 9
Class: Cl4
First: #5 Legacy Link
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 2lb
Form: —
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF%: 10%
RTFs: Good
OR: —
TS: 58
SecEff: 0.89 (model-estimate)
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Ribbon Of Sea
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 2lb
Form: —
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF%: 32%
TS: 53
SecEff: 0.88 (estimate)
Probability: 28%
Implied Probability: 33%
Value: Below Fair
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #9 Sydney Rock
Form: 2
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Oliver Cole
Probability: 17%
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Full of well-bred types. LEGACY LINK fits all edge criteria and is preferred on both stable strike rate and predicted SecEff. Appleby’s Ribbon Of Sea may be sharper for sprint blood, but at the price, the value is absent. SYDNEY ROCK holds the best “race experience” and ran well latest. Watch the market for newcomers’ confidence.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the track ride lively, expect Godolphin (Appleby & Buick) to step forward. If pace collapses, exposed-race filly SYDNEY ROCK stays on. A slow start for the short-price runners could see an each-way shock hit the frame.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 110% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 10%. Bookmakers are cautious but not defensive, suggesting room for value on unexposed newcomers.
Race 3
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services On Time Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 6:30
Runners: 8
Class: Cl4
First: #4 Gaurdman
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: —
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer: Roger Varian
Trainer RTF%: 20%
TS: 60
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 33%
Implied Probability: 30%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 First Time
Form: 822
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Trainer RTF%: 15%
TS: 83
SecEff: 0.90
Probability: 27%
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: Win
Third: #1 Crown Office
Form: —
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: William Haggas
Probability: 17%
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
GAURDMAN cost a huge sum and marks top of the model for a debut. The best form in the book sits with FIRST TIME, who has SecEff 0.90 and shape to run to form again. CROWN OFFICE is very interesting for northern money. Sprint pace profile says top two will track leaders and burst late; a lively market could up First Time’s odds for EW.
Scenario Analysis:
A burn-up scenario brings Crown Office and Gouken into the frame. If the favourite is green at the gates, finished-pacers like First Time can lead the way home.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 109% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 9%. A fairly tight market, relatively pro-value for this type.
Race 4
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services Outperforming The Opposition Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 7:05
Runners: 14
Class: Cl4
First: #11 Spring Bloom
Form: 625453
Age: 8
Weight: 9st 7lb
Jockey: Jack Callan
Trainer: Robert Eddery
TS: 43
OR: 73
SecEff: 0.89
Probability: 30%
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Wheels Of Fire
Form: 629334
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 8lb
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Richard Hannon
TS: 48
OR: 78
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 22%
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #9 Dark Side Thunder
Form: 463133
Age: 6
Weight: 9st 7lb
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Jessica Macey
TS: 80
OR: 73
SecEff: 0.87
Probability: 14%
Implied Probability: 10%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Large, competitive handicap with historical C&D winners. SPRING BLOOM sits top on model: his course record, pace profile, and the 7lb claim tip the balance. WHEELS OF FIRE is ultra-consistent and fits each way at value. DARK SIDE THUNDER rounds out the shortlist as a dual winner with strong sectionals. Upward moves towards 110% overround point to fair opportunity versus market leaders.
Scenario Analysis:
If breakaway pace is set, closers like Dashing Dick can challenge. If the field clusters, rail-drawn types improve their place prospects. Watch for late non-runners altering place terms.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 111% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 11%. Middle/longer odds show best value as warm fancies trade under true.
Race 5
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services Smart Customs Clearance Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 7:40
Runners: 8
Class: Cl5
First: #6 Rogue Dynasty
Form: 36-912
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 0lb
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: James Owen
TS: 62
OR: 65
SecEff: 0.89
Probability: 32%
Implied Probability: 30%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Lady Mariko
Form: 493211
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 10lb
Jockey: James Doyle
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
TS: 27
OR: 75
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 25%
Implied Probability: 24%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #2 Beauty By My Side
Form: 910-25
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 10lb
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer: Joseph Parr
TS: 60
OR: 75
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 18%
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
ROGUE DYNASTY is improving and ahead of her mark, with a pace profile tailored for the likely tempo and has the “nap” vibes per form/margin and price. LADY MARIKO, twice a winner since June, makes pace and appeals as the main threat. BEAUTY BY MY SIDE has needed her last run but is well in third for frame value. Solid contest, with improvement the main risk to selection.
Scenario Analysis:
If the leaders go hard up front, expect late closers (Tsarinas Song) to enter the frame. With a slow pace, prominent racers like Lady Mariko and Rogue Dynasty dominate.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 110% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 10%. Good value at the top; bookies anticipating further support for the favourite.
Race 6
Race Name: Maritime Cargo Services Container Gallop Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 8:14
Runners: 11
Class: Cl5
First: #3 Gloryous
Form: -73211
Age: 3
Weight: 10st 0lb
Jockey: William Carson
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
TS: 31
OR: 80
SecEff: 0.89
Probability: 28%
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Something Splendid
Form: -35241
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 7lb
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Peter Chapple-Hyam
TS: 33
OR: 73
SecEff: 0.88
Probability: 22%
Implied Probability: 19%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #1 Charming Whisper
Form: 950144
Age: 4
Weight: 10st 2lb
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Philip McBride
TS: 83
OR: 74
SecEff: 0.89
Probability: 16%
Implied Probability: 11%
Value: Above Fair
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
GLORYOUS, thriving and at the top of his game, can defy the penalty for the hat-trick. SOMETHING SPLENDID, up in trip, is the main danger with a strong finisher’s blend in a truly-run race. CHARMING WHISPER could sneak an EW spot if track rides quick. Large enough field for each-way— overround is competitive.
Scenario Analysis:
If the field goes slow, front-runners (Political Power) can pinch it; a dawdle at halfway lets strong stayers from the midfield such as Gloryous and Something Splendid dominate.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 111% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 11%. Standard for this size/grade; plenty of options for value hunters in the EW market.
Nap of the Meeting – Newmarket (July)
Race Time: 7:40
Horse Name: #6 Rogue Dynasty
Confidence Factors: Improving form, top sectionals, and ideal pace/projected field for her style. Trainer in hot form.
Race Conditions: Good ground, smaller field, expected steady gallop suits prominent runners.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized & Implied Probability — ExplainedImplied Probability is the chance of a horse winning based solely on its odds (1/decimal odds). Bookmaker odds “overround” this sum so total probability is above 100%.
Probability (Normalized) uses all runners’ implied probabilities but scales them so they add exactly to 100%, stripping away bookmaker margin to get the ‘fair’ win chance.Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability