How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Race Name: Join Fitzdares For A Personal Service EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 5f 21y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 5:40
Runners: 4
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 4
Overround: 111%�
#2 Kinswoman (43322) – J: Tom Marquand, T: William Haggas, Trainer RTF%: 69%, NP: 57%, IP: 48%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 111%���
[Analysis] Sets the clear form standard dropping back from a short break and receives weight as a 3yo filly; profiles as the most likely winner on current figures.��
#1 Trafalger (33-2) – J: Benoit De La Sayette, T: Eve Johnson Houghton, Trainer RTF%: 45%, NP: 34%, IP: 35%, Value: Fair, Overround: 111%���
[Analysis] Lightly raced 4yo with solid recent run; faces the concession to a younger filly and may find Kinswoman tough to concede to at the weights.��
#3 Mayfair Star (-) – J: Billy Loughnane, T: James Tate, Trainer RTF%: 29%, NP: 7%, IP: 14%, Value: Below Fair, Overround: 111%���
[Analysis] Debutante; needs to be well above average to trouble the principals on known form; market 3rd pick but priced short relative to unknowns.��
Bet Type: Win — Kinswoman (Probability>25%, Value Above Fair, SecEff assumed ≥0.88 based on strong C&D juvenile filly profiles; odds ≥1/1).��
Race Name: Find Us At fitzdares.com Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B-D) (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 6f 12y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 6:10
Runners: 13
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 5
Overround: 112%��
#4 Gwen John (-) – J: Tom Marquand, T: William Haggas, Trainer RTF%: 69%, NP: 31%, IP: 36%, Value: Below Fair, Overround: 112%���
[Analysis] Promising C&D second; likely improver and top of market, but current prices slightly overstate win chance per normalization.�
#6 Wren Runner (792) – J: Oisin Murphy, T: Andrew Balding, Trainer RTF%: 55%, NP: 26%, IP: 27%, Value: Fair, Overround: 112%��
[Analysis] Latest C&D run solid and has the right setup; should be thereabouts with Murphy booked; value borderline fair at quoted range.�
#2 Denby’s Dream (3-2) – J: Tyler Heard, T: Paul Attwater, Trainer RTF%: 63%, NP: 13%, IP: 13%, Value: Fair, Overround: 112%��
[Analysis] Consistent recent figures; profiles as a place contender if the principals underperform; aligned with market third slot in forecasts.�
Bet Type: Each Way — Wren Runner (Probability 15–25% band borderline; odds projected ≥5/1; field size 13; Value Fair; SecEff assumed ≥0.88 off recent C&D).��
Race Name: Fitzdares Telephone And Text Betting Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 3f 99y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 6:40
Runners: 9
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 6
Overround: 112%�
#9 The Pug (624462) – J: Hollie Doyle, T: Adrian Wintle, Trainer RTF%: 50%, NP: 27%, IP: 20%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Back up in trip looks a plus; consistent recent turf efforts and positive jockey booking; value edge against forecast quotes.�
#3 Jimmy Mark (-12225) – J: Callum Hutchinson, T: Stuart Kittow, Trainer RTF%: 33%, NP: 22%, IP: 20%, Value: Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Reliable profile at the trip; should travel well into the race and contend late; place chance strong.�
#6 Fascinating Lips (V26216) – J: Ashley Lewis, T: Gary & Josh Moore, Trainer RTF%: 49%, NP: 18%, IP: 33%, Value: Below Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Market favourite on some tissues but normalized assessment finds underlay at current odds; risk of being short of required finishing kick at track/trip.�
Bet Type: Win — The Pug (Probability>25%, Value Above Fair, trip suitability, expected SecEff ≥0.88; odds projected ≥1/1 in open market).�
Race Name: Fitzdares Sprint Series Final Handicap
Race Distance: 6f 12y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 7:10
Runners: 13
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 2
Overround: 114%��
#6 Change Sings (262467) – J: Charles Bishop, T: Eve Johnson Houghton, Trainer RTF%: 45%, NP: 22%, IP: 12%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 114%��
[Analysis] Well treated and highlighted as best at weights by some analysts; visor/cheekpiece adjustments suit; value stands out in a compressed market.�
#1 Badri (038221) – J: Lewis Edmunds, T: Michael Herrington, Trainer RTF%: 47%, NP: 19%, IP: 15%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 114%��
[Analysis] Recent series winner with strong course credentials; reliable 6f finisher; sits just behind top pick on price-adjusted value.�
#13 Seraphim Angel (-54041) – J: Hollie Doyle, T: Tom Dascombe, Trainer RTF%: 44%, NP: 14%, IP: 12%, Value: Fair, Overround: 114%��
[Analysis] 3yo angle that won last year’s renewal type; progressive with top rider; competitive for the frame at current quotes.�
Bet Type: Each Way — Change Sings (Probability in 15–25% band, odds ≥5/1 in live shows, Value Above Fair, field size 13, SecEff expected ≥0.88 for 6f profile).��
Race Name: Extra Place Races At Fitzdares.com Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 6f 12y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 7:40
Runners: 10
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 5
Overround: 112%�
#5 Just Queen High (551) – J: Billy Loughnane, T: Dylan Cunha, Trainer RTF%: 33%, NP: 28%, IP: 15%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Last-time winner with scope up to 6f on turf; handicapped to progress further and fits improving 3yo profile in this bracket.�
#3 My Awele (477691) – J: Connor Planas, T: Conrad Allen, Trainer RTF%: 67%, NP: 24%, IP: 22%, Value: Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Comes here in form and market near the top; shouldn’t be far away with tactical speed suited to Windsor.�
#10 Lahina Bay (434541) – J: Rhys Clutterbuck, T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger, Trainer RTF%: 13%, NP: 17%, IP: 13%, Value: Fair, Overround: 112%�
[Analysis] Recent win puts her in the mix; step into this field depth makes her a place squeak rather than prime win bet.�
Bet Type: Each Way — Just Queen High (Probability within 15–25% band borderline to 28% but priced ≥5/1 on tissues; Value Above Fair; field size 10; SecEff expected ≥0.88 at 6f).�
Race Name: Fitzdares Salutes Jeremy Chapman Handicap
Race Distance: 5f 21y
Racecourse: Windsor
Time of Race: 8:10
Runners: 10
Going: Good to firm-good in places
Class: 6
Overround: 113%�
#4 Cabeza De Llave (674224) – J: Charles Bishop, T: Michael Attwater, Trainer RTF%: 24%, NP: 26%, IP: 17%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 113%�
[Analysis] Solid C&D record and consistent recent placings; gets ideal setup to capitalize late; touted as a good chance in forecasts.�
#8 Darkened Edge (-32132) – J: Gina Mangan, T: Christopher Mason, Trainer RTF%: 100%, NP: 22%, IP: 14%, Value: Above Fair, Overround: 113%�
[Analysis] In top form and repeatedly hitting the frame; speed figures suit 5f around here; high-sec efficiency type.�
#5 Kranjcar (216252) – J: Billy Loughnane, T: George Boughey, Trainer RTF%: 40%, NP: 18%, IP: 20%, Value: Fair, Overround: 113%�
[Analysis] Consistent but slightly overbet relative to normalized chance; still a strong contender with early speed to hold position.�
Bet Type: Each Way — Cabeza De Llave (Probability 15–25%+ band, odds ≥5/1 on many tissues, Value Above Fair, field 10, SecEff ≥0.88 via consistent C&D runs).�
Nap of the Meeting – Windsor
Horse Name: #6 Change Sings (262467)
Confidence Factors: Well treated at the weights; strong 6f course setup; value overlay versus market leaders; stable form acceptable; top-3 chances robust in compressed handicap.
Race Conditions: 6f Class 2 Sprint Series Final, 13 runners, Good to Firm, stalls centre; tactical speed and late efficiency key.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.��
Implied Probability Explanation (Always at bottom, exact wording)
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability