How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting
#7 Majaz (Form: 4-22)
Proven 1m–1m2f level against a subsequent Listed winner; Varian/Crowley combo strong on AW; fair-to-above-fair value versus market; tactical versatility to sit handy and stretch late. Likely even pace enables a strong final 3f run. Back with confidence.
Paddy Power Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-52)
#1 Latin Five (Form: 394635)
Down to a career-low mark and well drawn to attack; recent turf runs better than bare results and profile suggests he’s primed to capitalize back on Polytrack.
#2 Global Effort (Form: 346361)
Last-time-out winner with a 5lb penalty; rail draw helps but compressed class ceiling means limited upside at current odds.
#3 Colors Of Freedom (Form: 407481)
In-and-out form; needs a sharp break and track bias to repeat last win, with lower trainer RTF a caution flag.
Pick No Bet — Field <8 for E/W; top two are borderline value and do not decisively clear thresholds.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Paddy Power Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (2yo)
#1 Dartrey (Form: —)
750,000€ yearling with strong page and Dewhurst entry; yard excels with smart debutants and draw workable for a prominent run.
#2 American Flight (Form: —)
Boughey targets this track effectively; market second pick with solid breeze vibes and scope on surface.
#3 Riffa Spirit (Form: —)
Crisford juveniles reliable on the AW; professional profile points to hitting the frame if breaking cleanly.
Pick No Bet — Debutant-heavy novice with short fav keeps value tight; prefer market watch and late play if Dartrey eases.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Paddy Power Handicap (Class 5) (3yo 0-75)
#1 Queue Dos (Form: 372133)
Rock-solid AW record and consistent sectionals; class/mark balance ideal and draw fine to stalk and pounce.
#2 Style King (Form: 200836)
Course-suited and handicapped to strike; late kick can be potent if pace is honest.
#3 Currahee (Form: 0-5717)
Recent win shows progress; needs rhythm from inside draw but retains upside at 6f.
Pick Queue Dos — Win. Meets >25% probability threshold with a solid NP–IP edge; consistent AW sectionals suggest strong SecEff; projected odds ≥ 2/1.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Paddy Power Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)
#1 Crack Shot (Form: 7-3054)
Big run in the Carlisle Bell and switches to an astute yard; Spencer’s patient ride style fits this track shape.
#2 Signcastle City (Form: 322650)
Consistent in better company and well treated; tactical speed to hold position and finish strongly.
#3 Bright Times Ahead (Form: 1-05)
Untapped potential but short enough on the numbers; needs a clear step forward against hardened older handicappers.
Pick Crack Shot — E/W. Sits in the 15–25% band with earlier ≥5/1 quotes; field size 11; value fair to AF for a patient late run.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Paddy Power Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (3yo+)
#1 Majaz (Form: 4-22)
Sets the standard on Newbury second to subsequent Listed winner; extra trip looks ideal to convert near-misses.
#2 Lady Ridgewood (Form: 42-23)
Reliable level with scope up in trip; should get a patient ride to challenge late.
#3 Glistening (Form: 322-8)
Solid back-form but short enough after a quiet return; may concede race fitness to the top pair.
Pick Majaz — Win. Clears probability and value thresholds with a suitable trip and likely prominent ride.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Paddy Power Handicap (Class 6) (3yo 0-60)
#1 Backer Bilk (Form: -21232)
Ultra-consistent in handicaps and new yard is shrewd; slight price squeeze but rock-solid place floor and track-suited run style.
#2 Night Tara (Form: 996)
Major improver now up in trip for handicap debut under a yard renowned for unlocking stamina; market support notable.
#3 Sansanetti (Form: 0-9117)
C&D winner with a forgive run last time; returns to optimal setup and retains finishing kick.
Pick Night Tara — E/W. Fits 15–25% E/W band with ≥5/1 quotes; field size 8; value rated AF. Backer Bilk a short-odds win/place saver only.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.