How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting
#3 Made All (Form: 522215)
Confidence Factors: Trip suitability; consistent sectionals; Above Fair value vs market; small field tactically favourable; recent form stability. Race Conditions: 1m4f, fast ground, Class 6 with WFA in play against a short-priced 3yo; pace scenario allows a well-positioned stalk-and-pounce ride. Summary: This is the “run-that-wins” scenario — back with confidence.
New William Hill, Market Place, Thirsk EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
#10 Napolian (Form: 17)
Strongly-run York novice effort reads well and experience is a major edge against several newcomers; market has him second fav behind debutant but track draw/middle helps at Thirsk 6f.
#8 Jazl (Form: —)
Well-regarded newcomer topping forecasts; profile solid but debut risk and slight overbet versus experienced rival.
#12 The Tunguska Event (Form: —)
Not flashy on paper but stable targets local tracks with ready juveniles; value to fill places if breaking well.
Pick: Napolian — Each Way if 4+ places. No Bet on Jazl (Below Fair). No Bet on The Tunguska Event unless 20/1+ EW terms.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
#12 Goldie Bear (Form: 03563)
Strong-finishing York 6f third signals 7f improvement; sits near top of forecasts and fits stamina profile.
#5 Haaderr (Form: 27)
Fav in forecasts but a shade short on price given similar upside rivals; talent clear but margin thin.
#6 Hasbro Market (Form: 13)
Experience and prominent style help; still priced near ceiling with others progressing.
Pick: Goldie Bear — Win (NP > 25%, Above Fair, projected ≥ 3/1). No Bet for Haaderr/Hasbro Market at current implieds.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Power Plastics "Big Day Out" Handicap
#3 South Parade (Form: 237593)
C&D credentials and recent C&D third are strong; however market shortens too aggressively, reducing value.
#1 Ingleby Archie (Form: 110320)
Drops in class and is a prior C&D scorer; price angle better in tight field; tactical speed suits small field.
#4 Hover On The Wind (Form: 412505)
Consistent at trip and trainer adept with sprinters; likely to run to mark without huge upside.
Pick: Ingleby Archie — Win (Above Fair; IP below NP). No Bet South Parade at short; No Bet Hover unless EW terms (not applicable with 6 runners).
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Vision Windows "A Clear Winner" Handicap
#3 Mystical Storm (Form: 3-3014)
Big York run from poor draw; unexposed profile stepping forward again; strong pace efficiency noted.
#2 High On Hope (Form: 238224)
Ultra-consistent and new yard angle positive; however market likely too warm relative to win chance.
#6 Arbitration (Form: -44663)
Returned to form at Musselburgh; should be finishing; fair value but pace-dependent.
Pick: Mystical Storm — Win (NP > 25%, Above Fair). Secondary: Arbitration — Each Way only if ≥ 5/1 and 8+ run (10 declared).
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Ray & Eileen Mclean Memorial Handicap
#4 Bernalda (Form: 4-0323)
Consistent and shaping for a win; profile suggests strong 1m finish which suits this intermediate trip.
#1 Hostelry (Form: 142213)
Reliable CD mare at peak mark; solid but not discounted by market; place solid.
#3 Jez Bomb (Form: 644631)
Comes off a win but now priced to perfection and rises in class scenario tempering expectations.
Pick: Bernalda — Each Way (NP 27%, 8 runners; target ≥ 5/1).
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.
Family Day Friday 29th August Book Now Handicap
#4 Arundel (Form: 392122)
Progressive 3yo with WFA; up in trip looks a plus, but short price in small field reduces value.
#3 Made All (Form: 522215)
Durable stayer with recent consistent figures; price likely to underestimate late kick at this trip.
#1 Masekela (Form: 627404)
Class edge on past ratings but hasn’t converted this season; market still factoring history more than current.
Pick: Made All — Win (NP > 25%, Above Fair). No Bet Arundel at short; No Bet Masekela.
The third selection is a Next Best (NB) Pick. If there is a non-runner from the top two or you want a third pick for a Placepot.