How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners, and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Southwell 17/08/25
#7 Whatsgoingonmarvin (Form: 0-1123)
Improving 3yo making strides, progressive in handicaps; likely winner. The “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest here.
Newark Advertiser Apprentice Handicap
#3 Golden Prosperity (Form: 150421)
Arrives in good heart with a win two starts back; proven over course and trip. Strong contender from a prominent draw.
#2 Piperstown (Form: 111455)
Consistent sprinter, effective at Southwell; capable of placing if breaking sharply.
#6 Glendown (Form: 903499)
Has hinted at a revival, well handicapped at present mark; appeals for a place.
Pick: Win — #3 Golden Prosperity
Flame UK 10th Anniversary Trophy Nursery Handicap
#6 Dandy’s Rocket (Form: 6461)
Impressive at Leicester last start over 6f, progressive type; ideal conditions here.
#5 Head For Freedom (Form: 7153)
Consistent profile, stays competitively handicapped, has each-way potential.
#3 Akabusi (Form: 70312)
Improving performer with recent placed form, solid claims of the frame again.
Pick: Win — #6 Dandy’s Rocket
Ambitions Personnel Maiden Stakes (Div I)
#4 Wild Clary (Form: 44-932)
Consistent maiden, came close recently in a stronger grade; primed to get his win here.
#9 Titian Blue (Form: 9-0552)
Proven place record, should go close if reproducing latest run.
#2 Grey Jaguar (Form: 25)
Lightly raced colt, still learning but can find improvement.
Pick: Win — #4 Wild Clary
Ambitions Personnel Maiden Stakes (Div II)
#4 Rock Iguana (Form: 3)
Highly promising debut, unlucky not to score; should make amends here.
#9 Warm Summer (Form: 2-)
Well-bred Godolphin filly, strong debut form, only fitter now.
#7 Minshaar (Form: 63)
Has potential but lacks the class of top two; fair for a placing.
Pick: Win — #4 Rock Iguana
Grace & Dotty Fedoras And Feathers Novice Stakes (Div I)
#13 Ultrasoul (Form: 2623-2)
Reliable, in strong form, proven stamina and consistent efforts; top chance.
#6 Great Dream (Form: 8-3)
Returning to optimum trip, scope to go forward; each-way contender.
#1 First Ambition (Form: 1)
Scored on debut, progress required but capable of hitting frame.
Pick: Win — #13 Ultrasoul
Grace & Dotty Fedoras And Feathers Novice Stakes (Div II)
#1 Vincent Rocks (Form: 1)
Ready winner at Nottingham, has scope to progress; banker of division.
#4 Balticum (Form: 64-)
Should improve on maiden efforts, leading threat.
#7 Magic Star (Form: 75)
Haggas-trained improver, not discounted for a place.
Pick: Win — #1 Vincent Rocks
Reach Flower Pod Southwell Handicap
#2 Fondo Blanco (Form: 31-227)
Strong run at Newmarket, well-treated, remains lightly raced and unexposed.
#3 Philanthropist (Form: 1-1454)
Good handicap form, consistent, should be close once again.
#6 Native Instinct (Form: 31-732)
Progressive type, dangerous if settling well.
Pick: Win — #2 Fondo Blanco
Coopers Marquees Handicap (GBBPlus)
#7 Whatsgoingonmarvin (Form: 0-1123)
Improving 3yo making strides, progressive in handicaps; likely winner.
#12 Divot (Form: -80632)
Gradually stepping up, can find another place finish.
#3 Lord Protector (Form: 355337)
Tough veteran, but lacks the gears of younger improvers; place claims.
Pick: Win — #7 Whatsgoingonmarvin
Notes
Overround pill colours: 100–115% (green) 116–117% (orange) 118%+ (red)
Implied Probability (IP) is based on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales runners to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair