How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners, and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Pontefract 17/08/25
#2 Thunderous Love (Form: 731121)
Thriving filly; series of strong wins; conditions ideal. The model shows probability advantage over market.
Roy Winstanley Memorial – Raising Encephalitis Awareness Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
#1 Dawn Of Liberation (Form: 197223)
Consistent, race-hardened and well suited by C&D. Market overweights the favourite, creating value here.
#3 Raulin (Form: 513441)
Solid C&D claims but priced too short against true fair line.
#2 Love Talk (Form: 7-3943)
3yo on the up; needs a small step forward to land this.
Pick: Win — #1 Dawn Of Liberation
Trevor Woods Memorial EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
#3 Mr Seagull (Debut)
Appealing profile and stable’s 2yo strike-rate solid; strikes best risk-reward on debut.
#1 Delinquent (Debut)
Likely fav on paper but market too short relative to uncertainty of first run.
#2 Great Success (Debut)
Right profile for yard; competitive debut expected.
Pick: Win — #3 Mr Seagull
Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap
#4 Saxonia (Form: 218442)
Likeable 3yo with the most upside; gets ideal set-up at 1m.
#5 Precious Spartan (Form: 381161)
Arrives in winning form; model shows a slight value edge versus price.
#2 Hale End (Form: 302575)
Capable on a going day and rates next best on figures.
Pick: E/W — #5 Precious Spartan
EBF Highfield Farm Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
#7 No Alibi (Form: 211)
Unexposed Irish filly with Listed potential; pace setup should suit late kick.
#10 Stormy Impact (Form: -61091)
Brings the strongest recent form; major player if getting gaps.
#4 Hold A Dream (Form: 1-2529)
Classy type who can bounce back; holds strong place prospects.
Pick: E/W — #7 No Alibi
Topsy Memorial Handicap
#2 Dan Tucker (Form: 215218)
Progressive 3yo at the minimum trip; pace-mapped advantage and track suits.
#3 Ventura Express (Form: 540022)
C&D player who thrives on this track; very likely to hit the frame.
#5 Equity Law (Form: 252801)
Recent scorer who may find this deeper but retains place chances.
Pick: Win — #2 Dan Tucker
Pontefract Races True Yorkshireman Package Handicap
#5 Kentucky River (Form: -84652)
Shaped like the winner at Doncaster over 2m; new staying trip suits perfectly.
#4 Cosmic Soul (Form: 8-2221)
Reliable stayer with consistent figures; the main danger.
#1 Carlton (Form: 124152)
Going well but a shade short in the market for true chance.
Pick: Win — #5 Kentucky River
Peter Craven 80th Birthday Extravaganza Fillies’ Handicap
#2 Thunderous Love (Form: 731121)
Prolific and still ahead of assessor; ticks distance/track boxes.
#4 Miss Hathaway (Form: 103701)
Course winner; form ties in well; likely to be involved late.
#1 Lady Wingalong (Form: 875521)
Capable mare but model rates her a touch under true fair at likely odds.
Pick: Win — #2 Thunderous Love
Notes
Top Jockey = From our list of top jockeys.
Overround pill colours: 100–115% (green) 116–117% (orange) 118%+ (red)
Implied Probability (IP) is based on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales runners to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair