How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners, and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Chepstow 19/08/25
#4 Highfield Viking (Form: 632331)
Peak current form; optimal 7f trip on fast ground; small tactical field enhances pace control and SecEff. Clear top on our model despite a compressed price.
BetWright Bet The Wright Way Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race)
#6 Soca Star (Form: 33323)
Battle-hardened and ultra-consistent; strong 5f SecEff on fast ground, most likely to boss the stand-side group and see it out.
#5 Sara Moon (Form: 6252)
Solid figures and ideally placed for a prominent ride; may just lack the final kick against the stronger yardsticks.
#1 Berlinetta (Form: —)
Classy connections and likely improver back to 5f; debut at the trip could sharpen her up but market likely too short.
Pick: No Bet — Overround high and leaders not offering AF value.
BetWright Bangers N’Cash / EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)
#7 Queen Tamara (Form: —)
Strong pedigree and positive debut profile; model leans her on 7f SecEff with upside versus the market.
#3 Jeddaal (Form: 62)
Experience edge and good RPR base; likely to trade blows with the filly late on.
#1 Gypsy Beat (Form: —)
Respected yard debutant but price is warm for an unknown against two with stronger markers.
Pick: Win — #7 Queen Tamara
DragonBet Welsh Racing Festival 10th-12th October Handicap
#2 Over Spiced (Form: 126223)
Consistent and well-handicapped enough to strike; short quotes in a high overround keep value in check.
#3 Savannah Smiles (Form: 421252)
Course winner with a neat 5f run style; right there late but needs ideal splits.
#4 Hidden Verse (Form: 374172)
In form and competitive but handicapped about right; market offers little cushion.
Pick: No Bet — Leaders only Fair in a red overround.
BetWright All Bun & Games Handicap
#3 Saffredi (Form: 755334)
Figures suggest he’s better than bare form; profiles well for 6f on fast ground and holds a value edge.
#6 You Are Everything (Form: 268411)
Arrives in form but may face pace contention; price short of our fair line.
#2 Ten Club (Form: 651575)
Capable at this level and should get a clean run style-wise; credible for a place.
Pick: E/W — #3 Saffredi
DragonBet WRF 10th-12th October Handicap
#4 Highfield Viking (Form: 632331)
Form horse who can dictate or track; small-field dynamics favour a high SecEff – clear top.
#1 Believe You Me (Form: -62214)
In prime form and tactically versatile; offers a fair price tilt versus the fav.
#2 Magical Merlin (Form: 350-24)
Capable of a strong finish if pace collapses; third pick for exotics.
Pick: No Bet — Field of 5 limits E/W; favourite short of our win criteria.
BetWright Safer Gambling Handicap
#4 Moonlight Bomb (Form: 877736)
Kempton run suggested more to come; mile trip fine and small field should allow an efficient late push.
#2 Thiscouldbefun (Form: 315774)
Consistent type for this grade; tracking run should yield a big say.
#1 Midsummer Music (Form: 51-537)
Capable but patchy; current market a shade above our fair line in a tactical 5-runner.
Pick: Win — #4 Moonlight Bomb
Notes
Top Jockey = From our list of top jockeys.
Overround pill colours: 100–115% (green) 116–117% (orange) 118%+ (red)
Implied Probability (IP) is based on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales runners to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair