How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Redcar 23/08/25
#6 Wonderful Friend (Form: 642)
Progressive 2yo, gelded and improving with each run. Sectional efficiency and pace map align over 6f; clearest value edge on the card.
Confidence Factors
Upward trajectory; bet type and value both align; conditions suit; sectional profile ≥0.88 trigger.
Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap (Class 5) (5:30)
#3 Jewel Maker (Form: 845353)
Consistent course performer with a workable mark; well suited to the tempo of small-field 10f handicaps.
#1 Princess Niyla (Form: 310554)
Solid recent efforts and resilient run style; fairly priced with strong place credentials.
#4 Mystical Maria (Form: 398556)
Capable filly with a late kick; ground conditions a plus and holds a small value edge against the market.
Analysis
Jewel Maker is preferred for the win. Princess Niyla and Mystical Maria rate the main threats for the frame.
Bakers Tailoring EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) (6:00)
#6 Wonderful Friend (Form: 642)
Gelded since last run and shaped as if 6f suits best; standout on ratings and expected to improve again.
#1 Bye Law (Form: 41)
Strong Ayr win but carries a 7lb penalty; retains major claims though price is broadly efficient.
#4 See That Spark (Form: — )
Well regarded debutant from a yard that scores with juveniles; market check advised with place potential.
Analysis
Wonderful Friend rates a confident win play. Bye Law the chief threat; See That Spark can fill out the places.
Market Cross Jewellers Novice Stakes (Class 5) (6:30)
#1 Eternal Force (Form: 8-442)
Clear form standard in a thin field; class yard and setup signal a breakthrough opportunity.
#3 Vintage Marsala (Form: — )
Likely second best on potential; can chase the favourite home if taking to conditions.
#4 Beauty Blossom (Form: 65)
Needs to find more but rates a sensible pick to complete the placings.
Analysis
Eternal Force should get off the mark; Vintage Marsala and Beauty Blossom appeal for minor money.
Marske Fabrications And Engineering Handicap (Class 4) (7:00)
#7 Double Parked (Form: 210132)
Unbeaten at the track and holding form; strong value angle with place security and win upside.
#6 Hale End (Form: 025752)
Reliable handicapper with figures to contend; marginal value preserved for place angles.
#2 Paladin (Form: 1-1561)
In-form winner who remains competitive; slightly overbet relative to normalized chance.
Analysis
Double Parked appeals each way given course affinity. Hale End and Paladin are respected for the frame.
Redhill Contractors Limited Handicap (Class 5) (7:30)
#7 Balon d’Or (Form: 784756)
Well treated after a 3lb drop and better than the bare result last time from a poor draw; strong each-way proposition.
#9 Captain Vallo (Form: 233223)
Ultra-consistent and repeatedly in the money; retains a small value edge for place angles.
#6 Dandy Dinmont (Form: -33581)
Recent win confirms well-being; sits close to fair value and is a key player for the frame.
Analysis
Balon d’Or is the value each-way. Captain Vallo and Dandy Dinmont rate next best on consistency and marks.
Celebrate National Racehorse Week Handicap (Class 6) (8:00)
#1 Brian The Snail (Form: 312862)
Tough veteran who went close here last time; top weight manageable in a small field with a clear run style advantage.
#2 Golden Prosperity (Form: 504212)
Arrives in fine form and holds a strong chance; price largely reflects his prospects.
#6 Filey Beach (Form: 96-437)
Progressive profile and feasible mark; minor win chance but stronger for the places at the prices.
Analysis
Brian The Snail is the selection to score, with Golden Prosperity and Filey Beach the principal dangers in a tight sprint.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100–115% (green, value zone) 116–117% (orange, marginal) 118%+ (red, avoid).
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair