How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Hexham 27/08/25
#2 Ribeye (Form: 93-412)
Proven C&D, recent win and second underpin a strong sectional grind over 3m; NP exceeds IP, delivering a clear value edge in a manageable field size.
5:15 Hexham – Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novices’ Hurdle (GBB) (Class 4) (2m4f28y, 6 runners)
#3 Jentobello (Form: R-113)
Dual bumper scorer with top rider booked; form depth and trip suitability give a narrow Above Fair edge over a contained book.
#1 Mohawk Chief (Form: -43213)
Solid Market Rasen third and proven stamina profile; NP>IP confirms value with stable in good nick.
#4 Late Night Drama (Form: 345-16)
Recent win and course experience keep him in the frame; fair value for a minor placing behind the front pair.
Analysis
Jentobello shades a tight market on class and rider synergy; Mohawk Chief rates a strong danger with NP>IP; Late Night Drama best of the rest for places.
5:45 Hexham – Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle (0–110) (Class 4) (2m48y, 8 runners)
#2 Dickens (Form: 15-311)
Most likely winner on ability but current pricing leans under; still top-ranked on SecEff over 2m on sound ground.
#6 Gemini Man (Form: 23P-72)
Recent placed efforts and workable mark create a positive NP>IP spread; value alternative to the fav.
#3 Little Soiree (Form: 264-14)
Consistent profile with one win this term; fair value for a placing if pace holds up.
Analysis
Dickens retains top win chance despite slight underlay; Gemini Man offers the value edge; Little Soiree makes some appeal for the frame.
6:15 Hexham – Joanne Colledge 50th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Hurdle (0–100) (Class 5) (2m4f28y, 16 runners)
#2 Nachtgeist (Form: 276-52)
Recent second reads well and conditions suit; sits in our preferred NP band with NP>IP confirming a value edge.
#12 Palm Beach (Form: 086-71)
Fresh from a win and still feasibly treated; upward SecEff trend adds to value appeal.
#3 Divilabother (Form: 02-022)
String of seconds shows reliability; fair value for a frame finish in a wide-open handicap.
Analysis
Nachtgeist sets the standard with a clean NP>IP; Palm Beach is the progressive value; Divilabother consistent enough to hit the frame.
6:45 Hexham – Sterling Clift 60th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase (0–100) (Class 5) (3m41y, 7 runners)
#2 Ribeye (Form: 93-412)
Course winner in current form; stamina-laden run style marries well with Hexham’s finish and current prices.
#1 Ali Star Bert (Form: 1-P422)
String of seconds indicates solidity; NP>IP keeps him firmly in the win/place conversation.
#5 Zoffalee (Form: /65526)
Staying type who can pick up pieces late if they overcook it; fair price for minor money.
Analysis
Ribeye holds a strong value-led claim; Ali Star Bert the main threat; Zoffalee can round out the places.
7:15 Hexham – At The Races App Market Movers Handicap Chase (0–105) (Class 5) (2m4f15y, 7 runners)
#2 Cracking Destiny (Form: F63-41)
Eight-time chase winner and recent C&D scorer; slight underlay at current odds but remains most likely winner on class.
#4 Royal Deeside (Form: 357-1S)
Unexposed with a C&D win; improving chaser offering a positive NP>IP spread as the chief threat.
#3 Believe Jack (Form: P/P-42)
Early chase efforts suggest further improvement; value angle for the frame with NP notably above IP.
Analysis
Cracking Destiny is the most likely winner but a touch short; Royal Deeside the value against; Believe Jack can fill the places.
7:45 Hexham – At The Races App Expert Tips Mares’ Open NH Flat Race (GBB) (Class 4) (2m48y, 8 runners)
#5 Nelrose (Form: 3)
Promising debut points to immediate progression; field depth looks shallow enough to exploit NP>IP.
#4 Lady Kara (Form: 2)
Clear debut second behind a short-priced winner; fair value near the top of the market and main danger.
#1 Dotties Promise (Form: 3)
Placed debut gives a base level but current odds overstate chance; more of a place player behind the principals.
Analysis
Nelrose appeals most on value and scope; Lady Kara is the clear danger; Dotties Promise has place claims if improving.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair