How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Newcastle 29/08/25
#10 Candle Of Time (Form: 65-403)
Unexposed 3yo filly on an upward curve; NP exceeds IP confirming a value edge under 1m conditions on Tapeta.
6:00 Newcastle – QuinnBet Handicap (Div I) (Class 6) (1m2f42y, 9 runners)
#3 Crownthorpe (Form: 865825)
Track-savvy veteran with a workable mark and strong late energy distribution for this trip; NP>IP flags value in a compressed market. [1]
#4 Spring Festival (Form: 873572)
Reliable recent profile and solid tapeta suitability; marginal value with normalized close to implied in a 9-runner field. [1]
#2 Shamardal Star (Form: 97-606)
Lenient mark after quiet runs; pace setup could boost late efficiency; NP comfortably above IP. [1]
Analysis
Crownthorpe preferred on handicapping and finishing kick; Spring Festival the solid alternative; Shamardal Star makes place appeal with an IP gap. [1]
6:30 Newcastle – QuinnBet Handicap (Div II) (Class 6) (1m2f42y, 9 runners)
#8 Weegeebear (Form: 704726)
Shaped well two back and drops into a winnable division with a clear NP>IP edge and suitable trip. [1]
#6 Daring Leader (Form: 372831)
Last-time winner holding form; normalized sits modestly above implied, rating him a fair play for the win frame. [1]
#2 Ravenswell (Form: -08782)
Form turning; tactical pace helps; modest value with normalized exceeding implied slightly in an open heat. [1]
Analysis
Weegeebear gets the nod on profile and pricing; Daring Leader remains competitive; Ravenswell is a fair place shout. [1]
7:00 Newcastle – Download The QuinnBet App Nursery Handicap (Class 5) (6f, 5 runners)
#4 Head For Freedom (Form: 71532)
Southwell second sets the standard; narrow normalized edge over implied makes him a fair win proposition at current quotes. [2]
#3 Brimfulofattitude (Form: 331)
Progressive winner now handicapping; NP advantage over IP suggests genuine value in a 5-runner tactical contest. [2]
#2 Social Exclusion (Form: 180334)
Tapeta return a plus; sectionals indicate efficiency late; small but positive value edge on current market. [2]
Analysis
Head For Freedom sets the bar on form; Brimfulofattitude offers value with upside; Social Exclusion rates a placing threat. [2]
7:30 Newcastle – probio-energy.com Energy:Reborn Classified Stakes (Class 6) (5f, 9 runners)
#1 Back Tomorrow (Form: 356038)
AW specialist with strong C&D suitability; NP premium over IP signals a clear bettable edge. [3]
#9 Dorothy May (Form: 400962)
Recent upturn and middle draw suit the pace map; fair value with modest NP cushion. [3]
#5 Latin Five (Form: 946356)
Plenty of similar-class experience; normalized close to implied keeps him in the frame. [3]
Analysis
Back Tomorrow edges a compressed market on AW prowess; Dorothy May is next best; Latin Five has consistent claims. [3]
8:00 Newcastle – Equine Products UK Handicap (Class 5) (7f14y, 14 runners)
#11 Black Storm (Form: 5-0832)
Ayr second on stable debut reads well; NP materially exceeds IP providing a confident play versus market leaders. [4]
#1 Flying Fletcher (Form: 950055)
Dual course winner dropping in grade; normalized close to implied — fair proposition with solid track profile. [4]
#8 King’s School (Form: 389563)
On the upgrade and suited by pace shape; noteworthy NP premium suggests above-fair value for podium. [4]
Analysis
Black Storm looks primed to score with a clear value edge; Flying Fletcher rates the main threat; King’s School is a live place chance. [4]
8:30 Newcastle – High Gosforth Park Golf Club EBF Novice Stakes (GBB) (Class 5) (6f, 9 runners)
#4 Shamacid (Form: 52)
Recent runner-up with weight pull against the penalty carry; NP advantage over IP is compelling at 6f. [5]
#1 Natural Force (Form: 1/3)
Ability assured but gives weight; normalized only slightly above implied keeps him a fair second pick. [5]
#8 Komorkis (Form: 35-)
Returning from a break but early efforts showed ability; pricing offers an above-fair placing angle. [5]
Analysis
Shamacid can capitalize on the weight pull; Natural Force the main danger; Komorkis for minor money on projected improvement. [5]
9:00 Newcastle – Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap (Class 6) (1m5y, 14 runners)
#10 Candle Of Time (Form: 65-403)
Unexposed 3yo with upside; sectional profile aligns with a strong run over 1m; NP comfortably clears IP for an Above Fair lead pick. [1]
#2 Desert Raider (Form: 0-2082)
Latest near-miss suggests readiness; normalized ahead of implied but narrower margin than the nap choice. [1]
#5 Park Street (Form: 087473)
Solid consistency and suitable trip; normalized margin suggests fair value to hit the frame. [1]
Analysis
Candle Of Time is the selection with the most compelling value case; Desert Raider and Park Street rate the principal threats. [1]
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair