How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Brighton 31/08/25
#5 Ezra Cee (Form: 1050-3)
Lightly raced improver returning to an extended sprint that suits; NP exceeds IP with positive sectional efficiency and a strong rider booking.
1:52 Brighton – Make A Difference Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap (Class 6) (1m3f198y, 9 runners)
#4 Pride Of Nepal (Form: 252243)
Last year’s winner with reliable course craft; strong late energy makes him a prime finisher in amateurs’ company.
#6 Cloudy Rose (Form: -35114)
In form with stamina reserves; claim helps offset weight and enhances finishing efficiency up the climb.
#1 Blue Universe (Form: 49/40-)
Capable of staying on late and handles Brighton; profile suggests a fair chance of hitting the frame.
Analysis
Pride Of Nepal rates the top pick on proven C&D effectiveness; Cloudy Rose appeals with current form and claim; Blue Universe a fair-priced placer.
2:22 Brighton – Fostering Changes Lives EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (Band D) (Class 5) (5f60y, 7 runners)
#1 Calafiori (Form: 220222)
Sets the form standard with multiple seconds; track can help finish the job but profile suggests fair rather than standout value.
#3 Solar Invincible (Form: —)
Well-bred newcomer with speed influences; Brighton’s downhill 5f can favour sharp debutants at working prices.
#8 Viennetta (Form: 5)
Showed pace on debut and can step forward; profiles as an each-way/place player with NP edge over IP.
Analysis
Calafiori remains the form pick but short enough; Solar Invincible offers value upside; Viennetta a second-time improver to include.
2:52 Brighton – Brighton & Hove Fostering Nursery Handicap (Class 6) (5f215y, 7 runners)
#4 Redditizio (Form: 422323)
Consistent with multiple places; rider booking a plus and cambered 6f should suit a strong mid-race push.
#1 Highlighting (Form: 07681)
Last-time-out winner under a penalty; retains enough pace to remain highly competitive.
#3 Excelerate (Form: 9664)
Unlucky-not-to-finish-closer type; handy draw and progressive hints make for a fair value play.
Analysis
Redditizio edges the pick with a clear NP>IP edge; Highlighting still dangerous; Excelerate the value alternative.
3:22 Brighton – Brighton Sprint Series Final Handicap (Class 2) (5f215y, 13 runners)
#6 Graduated (Form: 934333)
Unexposed at the trip with an ideal Brighton running style; pricing leaves a clear value edge.
#1 Pietro (Form: -44212)
Weights case is strong off recent big-field form; slightly shorter in the market but a solid win chance.
#2 Tea Sea (Form: 352241)
Recent course scorer with track know-how; profiles well for a place in a competitive final.
Analysis
Graduated gets the nod on value and profile; Pietro the main danger; Tea Sea a live place contender.
3:52 Brighton – It Takes A Village Handicap (Class 5) (7f216y, 12 runners)
#12 Lunanova (Form: 786113)
Progressive 3yo with Brighton-friendly running style; remains well enough treated to keep improving.
#4 Blenheim Star (Form: 156383)
Course form and front-running capability; rates a strong contender if securing an early rhythm.
#8 Louie The Legend (Form: 004167)
Recent win shows upside; stalking run fits the course and offers place value.
Analysis
Lunanova preferred as a progressing 3yo; Blenheim Star rates the main rival; Louie The Legend presents value for minors.
4:52 Brighton – Mockingbird Handicap (Class 6) (5f60y, 10 runners)
#8 Upper Hand (Form: 839-94)
Maiden with upside dropping to Brighton’s sharp 5½f; jockey uplift adds to sectional efficiency.
#2 Alshimali (Form: 943713)
Recent win underlines wellbeing; market largely has him right but remains a top-three player.
#1 Call Time (Form: -05622)
String of seconds suggests a win is near; claim aids the late meters up the climb for a solid place-run.
Analysis
Upper Hand is preferred on potential and rider uplift; Alshimali stays on the shortlist; Call Time makes strong place appeal.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair