How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Tipperary 31/08/25
#14 Songhai (Form: 232633)
Listed 5f depth already handled and late speed profile ideal for a strong-run dash; NP materially exceeds IP, signalling a value-led “run-that-wins” scenario.
2:30 Tipperary – Camas Park Irish EBF Maiden (2yo) (1m1f, 13 runners)
#5 Endorsement (Form: —)
Forecast favourite with the strongest stable figures; stamina on pedigree aligns with the extended mile and current going.
#7 Limestone (Form: —)
Second in the betting and profiles to travel well; marginal negative value at current quotes but rates very likely to hit the frame.
#1 Acclamatic (Form: —)
Experience angle versus debutants with a solid rider booking; Fair value near 11/2–6/1 with stalk-and-pounce set-up.
Analysis
Endorsement is preferred on stable power and trip suitability; Limestone rates the chief threat; Acclamatic has the experience to secure minor money.
3:00 Tipperary – Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden (2yo) (7f110y, 13 runners)
#1 Giovanni Giorgio (Form: 12)
Form standout after a narrow defeat at the trip; very solid win chance but short odds compress value.
#7 Madbadanddangerous (Form: —)
Top rider booking and a winnable auction grade boost debut prospects; offers meaningful value against the favourite.
#8 Anushka (Form: —)
Well-bred newcomer whose profile fits the series; Fair value for win/place with a clean break.
Analysis
Giovanni Giorgio sets a high bar on form; Madbadanddangerous is the value with rider uplift; Anushka appeals as a debut place chance.
3:30 Tipperary – Glenvale Stud Race (3yo+, 7f110y, 6 runners)
#2 Mississippi River (Form: 221245)
3yo receives WFA and owns tactical speed; recent sectionals point to a late strength edge in a small field.
#1 Bravais (Form: 816220)
Rock-solid 7f operator with rider uplift; very likely to be in the finish though value is marginal.
#3 Hurricane Ivor (Form: 142440)
High-class sprinter stretching to 7f; can feature if pace is strong but value tilts below fair for win.
Analysis
Mississippi River gets the nod on WFA and recent sectionals; Bravais is a strong danger; Hurricane Ivor is respected for a minor placing.
4:00 Tipperary – Coolmore Stud No Nay Never Fairy Bridge Stakes (G3 F&M) (7f110y, 11 runners)
#7 Copacabana Sands (Form: 9-2511)
Rapidly progressive with back-to-back wins; setup ideal at 7f with slight ease in the ground.
#5 Princess Child (Form: 595821)
Galway win on the clock reads well; tactical flexibility keeps her firmly in the mix.
#8 Celestial Orbit (Form: 711-20)
Talented 3yo with pattern form; a fair place player though current odds imply slightly greater chance than model.
Analysis
Copacabana Sands shades a competitive G3 on momentum; Princess Child is the main danger; Celestial Orbit for trifectas.
4:30 Tipperary – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Abergwaun Stakes (Listed) (5f, 15 runners)
#14 Songhai (Form: 232633)
Listed sprint form and closing speed profile align with a strong-run 5f; material value vs market.
#6 King Cuan (Form: 11/513)
Classy and lightly raced; projects to track the speed and finish off well.
#1 Two Stars (Form: 212-11)
In-form winner stepping into a deeper Listed; solid minor-money chance but win price is a touch short.
Analysis
Songhai is a value-led top pick; King Cuan the main danger; Two Stars remains reliable for places.
5:00 Tipperary – Breens Farm Machinery Apprentice Handicap (3yo 0–60) (1m1f, 16 runners)
#2 Jasmine Affanalis (Form: 008252)
Two seconds this season and a handy claim; profile fits a winnable 0–60 with strong place anchor credentials.
#15 Petite Madame (Form: 0-0072)
Recent runner-up indicates form upswing; low weight and good draw aid an efficient tracking trip.
#13 Miss Americana (Form: 0-004)
Handicap mark now competitive and latest run hinted at progress; solid each-way frame chance.
Analysis
Jasmine Affanalis gets the nod with a useful claim and consistent recent efforts; Petite Madame is a strong alternative; Miss Americana is a viable each-way play.
5:30 Tipperary – Home & Agri Energy Handicap (4yo+) (1m4f110y, 18 runners)
#8 Plunkett Street (Form: 164-12)
Consistent stayer with recent win and C&D suitability; NP comfortably exceeds IP, supporting a value-led angle.
#16 El Bello (Form: 834388)
Claim brings him in well at the weights; consistent efforts suggest a strong place base with upside.
#15 Skib Gold (Form: 096012)
Recent win and a close second signal form; travel-and-stay profile fits the 12f+ test here.
Analysis
Plunkett Street appeals most on C&D suitability; El Bello looks a place anchor with the claim; Skib Gold is a live each-way player.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair