Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: bet365 Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap (Class 5)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 5:45
First: Beauld As Brass
Age: 5
Weight: 11-2
Form: 0452-1
Going: Standard
Jockey: Mr Simon Walker
Trainer: George Baker
Trainer RTF% Form: 71%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 45
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Egoiste
Age: 6
Weight: 10-13
Form: 86241
Going: Standard
Jockey: Mr Guy Mitchell
Trainer: David Menuisier
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 64
TS: 40
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Beauld As Brass has shown consistent form and a recent win, making her the standout choice. Egoiste has potential but needs to prove consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the track softens, Egoiste’s stamina could come into play, but Beauld As Brass’s speed on standard ground gives her the edge.
Race Name: Racing Value At bet365 Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 6:15
First: Altareq
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 6
Going: Standard
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 70%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Kurakka
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 43-
Going: Standard
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Alan King
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 61
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Altareq, trained by Gosden, is the class pick despite limited form. Kurakka has shown promise but lacks experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Kurakka’s stamina could challenge, but Altareq’s breeding suggests superior class.
Race Name: Watch Live Racing At bet365 Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 1m6f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 6:45
First: It’s Tim
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 685211
Going: Standard
Jockey: Jack Callan
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 60
TS: 37
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Drouthy Neebor
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 53332-
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Trainer RTF% Form: 94%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 48
TS: 39
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: It’s Tim is in career-best form and looks unstoppable. Drouthy Neebor is consistent but may lack the finishing kick.
Scenario Analysis: If the distance tests stamina, Drouthy Neebor could close the gap, but It’s Tim’s recent wins make him the safer pick.
Race Name: bet365 Chelmer Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 7:15
First: Arabian Dusk
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 3173-4
Going: Standard
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 108
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Star Of Mehmas
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 5111-
Going: Standard
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 74
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Arabian Dusk’s class and consistency give her the edge. Star Of Mehmas is unbeaten but untested at this level.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Star Of Mehmas’s finishing speed could threaten, but Arabian Dusk’s experience is key.
Race Name: 6 horses Challenge At bet365 Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 7:45
First: Monsieur Beaulieu
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
Form: 142234
Going: Standard
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Nick Littmoden
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 84
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Rebel Path
Age: 6
Weight: 9-2
Form: 441435
Going: Standard
Jockey: Olivia Haines
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 75
TS: 80
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Monsieur Beaulieu’s consistency and top speed make him the pick. Rebel Path is improving but may need softer ground.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Rebel Path could capitalize, but Monsieur Beaulieu’s tactical speed should prevail.
Race Name: Download The bet365 App Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 8:15
First: Noble Consort
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 441-21
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 60
TS: 68
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Dark Side Prince
Age: 8
Weight: 9-5
Form: 647-73
Going: Standard
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Jessica Macey
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 61
TS: 65
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Noble Consort’s recent form and weight advantage make her the choice. Dark Side Prince is consistent but aging.
Scenario Analysis: If the race turns tactical, Dark Side Prince’s experience could help, but Noble Consort’s youth is favorable.
Race Name: Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Chelmsford
Time of Race: 8:45
First: Big Gypsy King
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 900-3
Going: Standard
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Paul & Oliver Cole
Trainer RTF% Form: 20%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 46
TS: 35
Probability: First Horse Moderate
Second: Kilteel
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 183-47
Going: Standard
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Trainer RTF% Form: 29%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 50
Probability: Second Horse Low
Analysis: Big Gypsy King’s recent improvement and low weight are appealing. Kilteel is consistent but carries more weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Kilteel’s stamina may shine, but Big Gypsy King’s recent form suggests upside.
Best Value for Money Horse: It’s Tim (6:45 Race)
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 685211 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 60
TS: 37
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: It’s Tim has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, It’s Tim presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Chelmsford – 01st May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
17:45 – Watch Live Racing At bet365 Handicap
- Beauld As Brass (Probability: 85%)
- Meadram (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
18:15 – Racing Value At bet365 Novice Stakes
- Altareq (Probability: 82%)
- Kurakka (Probability: 79%) [Flagged: <80%]
18:45 – Watch Live Racing At bet365 Handicap
- Egoiste (Probability: 80%)
- Life On The Rocks (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
19:15 – Download The bet365 App Handicap
- Star Of Mehmas (Probability: 80%)
- Englemere (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
19:45 – bet365 Handicap
- Monsieur Beaulieu (Probability: 83%)
- Rebel Path (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
20:15 – bet365 Handicap
- Noble Consort (Probability: 85%)
- Dark Side Prince (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
20:45 – bet365 Handicap
- Fiscal Policy (Probability: 80%)
- Baba Reza (Probability: 77%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Beauld As Brass – 17:45, Chelmsford (85%)
- Altareq – 18:15, Chelmsford (82%)
- Monsieur Beaulieu – 19:45, Chelmsford (83%)
- Noble Consort – 20:15, Chelmsford (85%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Beauld As Brass – 17:45, Chelmsford
- Altareq – 18:15, Chelmsford
- Monsieur Beaulieu – 19:45, Chelmsford
- Noble Consort – 20:15, Chelmsford
Doubles
- Beauld As Brass + Altareq
- Beauld As Brass + Monsieur Beaulieu
- Beauld As Brass + Noble Consort
- Altareq + Monsieur Beaulieu
- Altareq + Noble Consort
- Monsieur Beaulieu + Noble Consort
Trebles
- Beauld As Brass + Altareq + Monsieur Beaulieu
- Beauld As Brass + Altareq + Noble Consort
- Beauld As Brass + Monsieur Beaulieu + Noble Consort
- Altareq + Monsieur Beaulieu + Noble Consort
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Beauld As Brass + Altareq + Monsieur Beaulieu + Noble Consort
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Altareq (82%) –
- Highest Probability: Beauld As Brass (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Star Of Mehmas (80%) –
