Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Specialist Group Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m94y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 2:30
First: The Other Mozzie
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1U6171 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Magic Day
Age: 6
Weight: 11-8
Form: -43321 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 81
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: The Other Mozzie has strong recent form and a high official rating, making him the standout choice. Magic Day is improving and could challenge if the favorite underperforms.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Magic Day’s stamina could come into play.
Race Name: Frontline Security Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m75y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Champagne Mahler
Age: 7
Weight: 10-5
Form: 3-0721 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 125
TS: 139
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Tullyhill
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
Form: 8P-22P (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 146
TS: 117
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Champagne Mahler’s recent win and high Top Speed rating make him the pick. Tullyhill has class but needs to rediscover his best form.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Tullyhill’s stamina could see him close late.
Race Name: Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase
Race Distance: 4m1f11y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 3:40
First: Vanillier
Age: 10
Weight: 11-12
Form: P69130 (Classy performer)
Going: Good To Yielding
Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 143
TS: 121
Probability: First Horse High
Second: The Goffer
Age: 8
Weight: 11-7
Form: P77543 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Yielding
Jockey: Danny Gilligan
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 135
TS: 135
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Vanillier’s experience and class should prevail. The Goffer is a solid place contender.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, The Goffer’s speed could be a factor.
Race Name: Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m7f110y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:15
First: Jeriko Du Reponet
Age: 6
Weight: 11-9
Form: P-P532 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 139
TS: 124
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Beckett Rock
Age: 6
Weight: 11-8
Form: -41026 (Improving)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 138
TS: 134
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Jeriko Du Reponet has the class to win if he returns to form. Beckett Rock is a danger if the favorite falters.
Scenario Analysis: Softening ground would favor Beckett Rock.
Race Name: Close Brothers Irish EBF Mares Novice Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m94y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:50
First: Sixandahalf
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 21-12 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 140
TS: 136
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Karoline Banbou
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 2-2146 (Needs improvement)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 132
TS: 127
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Sixandahalf’s form and speed make her the clear favorite. Karoline Banbou has place claims.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Karoline Banbou could close strongly.
Race Name: Barberstown Castle Novice Chase
Race Distance: 2m75y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 5:25
First: Majborough
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: 31-113 (Top-class)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 162
TS: 153
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Only By Night
Age: 7
Weight: 11-5
Form: 3-1112 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 150
TS: 153
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Majborough is the class act here. Only By Night is a solid place contender.
Scenario Analysis: If Majborough underperforms, Only By Night could capitalize.
Race Name: Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m7f110y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:00
First: Teahupoo
Age: 8
Weight: 11-10
Form: 111-22 (Elite performer)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Sam Ewing
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 163
TS: 125
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Hiddenvalley Lake
Age: 8
Weight: 11-10
Form: 13-271 (Strong form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 159
TS: 133
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Teahupoo is the standout hurdler here. Hiddenvalley Lake is the main danger.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Hiddenvalley Lake’s stamina could be key.
Race Name: JP & M Doyle (C & G) INH Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m94y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:35
First: Ksar Fatal
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 11 (Unbeaten)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr P W Mullins
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 70
Probability: First Horse High
Second: El Cairos
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 1-15 (Promising)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr David Maxwell
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 98
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ksar Fatal is the most exciting prospect. El Cairos is a solid alternative.
Scenario Analysis: If Ksar Fatal is unsettled, El Cairos could pounce.
Best Value for Money Horse at Punchestown (01 May 2025)
Horse: Magic Day
Age: 6
Weight: 11-8
Form: -43321 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 115
TS: 81
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Magic Day has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Magic Day presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Punchestown – 01st May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Specialist Group Handicap Hurdle (14:30)
- Harry’s Legacy (Probability: ~80%)
- Magic Day (Probability: ~75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Frontline Security Handicap Chase (15:05)
- Tullyhill (Probability: ~78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Mirazur West (Probability: ~75%) [Flagged: <80%]
La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (15:40)
- Vanillier (Probability: ~85%)
- Stealthy Tom (Probability: ~80%)
Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle (16:15)
- Win Some Lose Some (Probability: ~78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- I Love My Baie (Probability: ~75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Close Brothers Irish EBF Mares Novice Hurdle (16:50)
- Sixandahalf (Probability: ~82%)
- Cottesloe Sunshine (Probability: ~78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Barberstown Castle Novice Chase (17:25)
- Majborough (Probability: ~80%)
- Brookie (Probability: ~75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Champion Stayers’ Hurdle (18:00)
- Teahupoo (Probability: ~85%)
- Rocky’s Diamond (Probability: ~78%) [Flagged: <80%]
JP & M Doyle INH Flat Race (18:35)
- Ksar Fatal (Probability: ~88%)
- El Cairos (Probability: ~80%)
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Ksar Fatal (18:35, Punchestown, 88%)
- Teahupoo (18:00, Punchestown, 85%)
- Vanillier (15:40, Punchestown, 85%)
- Sixandahalf (16:50, Punchestown, 82%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Ksar Fatal (18:35, Punchestown)
- Teahupoo (18:00, Punchestown)
- Vanillier (15:40, Punchestown)
- Sixandahalf (16:50, Punchestown)
Doubles
- Ksar Fatal + Teahupoo
- Ksar Fatal + Vanillier
- Ksar Fatal + Sixandahalf
- Teahupoo + Vanillier
- Teahupoo + Sixandahalf
- Vanillier + Sixandahalf
Trebles
- Ksar Fatal + Teahupoo + Vanillier
- Ksar Fatal + Teahupoo + Sixandahalf
- Ksar Fatal + Vanillier + Sixandahalf
- Teahupoo + Vanillier + Sixandahalf
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Ksar Fatal + Teahupoo + Vanillier + Sixandahalf
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Ksar Fatal (88%) –
- Highest Probability: Ksar Fatal (88%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Majborough (80%) –
