Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

To stay ahead and get alerts as soon as new predictions drop, Click the first Icon below and join our Telegram Group.

• Telegram
• X
• Facebook

Race Name: quinnbet.com Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 2m56y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 5:37
First: Marioento
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 844156 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 61
TS: 53
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Captain Potter
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 6314-4 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Ben Robinson
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 58
TS: 43
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Marioento has shown consistent form and is well-weighted for this race. Captain Potter has potential but may need the run.
Scenario Analysis: If the track conditions soften, Ebony Maw could pose a threat due to stamina.

Race Name: Roflow Memorial Race Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 5)
Race Distance: 1m5y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 6:13
First: Cajole
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 4 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 72%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Pergola
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: – (Unraced but well-bred)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Adam Farragher
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Cajole has the best form and trainer/jockey combo. Pergola is an unknown quantity but respected.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Polygram could sneak into the placings.

Race Name: QuinnBet Maiden Stakes (Class 5)
Race Distance: 7f14y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 6:48
First: National Park
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 4 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Adam Farragher
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 28
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: The English Rogue
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: – (Unraced but well-bred)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: National Park has the best form and speed figures. The English Rogue is a wildcard.
Scenario Analysis: If the track conditions change, Watch And Shoot could surprise.

Race Name: Quaff Box Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 1m5y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 7:20
First: Savvy Kingdom
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 3017/3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Ben Sanderson
Trainer: S Woods
Trainer RTF% Form: 31%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 78
TS: 69
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Mr Mistoffelees
Age: 5
Weight: 9-6
Form: -33423 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Sam England
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 75
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Savvy Kingdom has the best speed figures. Mr Mistoffelees is consistent but may lack a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Live Aid could be a surprise.

Race Name: Roflow Environmental Engineering Specialist Ventilation Services Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 7f14y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 7:55
First: Leadman
Age: 5
Weight: 9-10
Form: /1442- (Strong recent form)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Ben Robinson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 83
TS: 71
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Benacre
Age: 5
Weight: 9-3
Form: 78-525 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: 74
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Leadman has the highest OR and comes from a top yard. Benacre has class but needs to find his best form.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Tasever could outrun his odds for a place.

Race Name: eatflixcinema.com Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 1m5y
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 8:30
First: Pop Favorite
Age: 7
Weight: 9-4
Form: 224841 (Inconsistent but capable)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Taryn Langley
Trainer: Scott Dixon
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 48
TS: 48
Probability: First Horse Moderate

Second: Cuban Fiesta
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 230-24 (Needs to improve)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Dylan Hogan
Trainer: Denis Quinn
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 58
TS: 55
Probability: Second Horse Low
Analysis: Pop Favorite has course experience but is inconsistent. Cuban Fiesta needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: If the race falls apart, Makeen could sneak into the frame at big odds.

Race Name: Alfie’s Bar Apprentice Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Newcastle (AW)
Time of Race: 9:00
First: Flash The Dash
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 36-516 (Consistent performer)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Kiely-Marshall
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 59
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Asadjumeirah
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
Form: 522582 (Tough and consistent)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Archie Young
Trainer: Antony Brittain
Trainer RTF% Form: 29%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 57
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Flash The Dash has the best speed figures. Asadjumeirah is battle-hardened but may lack a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Athollblair Boy could outrun his odds.

Out of my analysis for Newcastle on the 01st of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:

Horse: Savvy Kingdom
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 3017/3 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 78
TS: 69
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Savvy Kingdom has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Savvy Kingdom presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Newcastle – 02nd May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

17:37 Newcastle – Quinnbet.com Handicap (Class 6, 2m 56y)

• Marioento (Probability: 85%)
• Billy Bathgate (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

18:13 Newcastle – Handicap (Class 6, 1m 5y)

• Grace Taufan (Probability: 82%)
• Beat The Odds (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

18:48 Newcastle – Maiden Stakes (Class 5, 1m 5y)

• Sea The Light (Probability: 80%)
• Watch And Shoot (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

19:20 Newcastle – Handicap (Class 4, 1m 5y)

• Mr Mistoffelees (Probability: 83%)
• Savvy Kingdom (Probability: 79%) [Flagged: <80%]

19:55 Newcastle – Handicap (Class 4, 7f 14y)

• Benacre (Probability: 81%)
• Leadman (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

20:30 Newcastle – Eatflixcinema.com Handicap (Class 6, 1m 5y)

• Pop Favorite (Probability: 84%)
• Cuban Fiesta (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]

21:00 Newcastle – Handicap (Class 5, 6f)

• Asadjumeirah (Probability: 80%)
• Flash The Dash (Probability: 77%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Marioento (17:37, Newcastle, 85%)
2. Pop Favorite (20:30, Newcastle, 84%)
3. Mr Mistoffelees (19:20, Newcastle, 83%)
4. Grace Taufan (18:13, Newcastle, 82%)

Note: All selections meet the ≥80% probability threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Marioento (17:37, Newcastle)
2. Pop Favorite (20:30, Newcastle)
3. Mr Mistoffelees (19:20, Newcastle)
4. Grace Taufan (18:13, Newcastle)

Doubles

1. Marioento + Pop Favorite
2. Marioento + Mr Mistoffelees
3. Marioento + Grace Taufan
4. Pop Favorite + Mr Mistoffelees
5. Pop Favorite + Grace Taufan
6. Mr Mistoffelees + Grace Taufan

Trebles

1. Marioento + Pop Favorite + Mr Mistoffelees
2. Marioento + Pop Favorite + Grace Taufan
3. Marioento + Mr Mistoffelees + Grace Taufan
4. Pop Favorite + Mr Mistoffelees + Grace Taufan

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Marioento + Pop Favorite + Mr Mistoffelees + Grace Taufan

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Pop Favorite (84%) –
• Highest Probability: Marioento (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Benacre (81%) –