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Fontwell 07/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

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Bet Smart & Win
Fontwell — Sun 07/09/25
Races: 6 (1–10)

We bet value when our NP exceeds market IP and the book’s overround is ~100–115% (green); higher margins = tighter staking.

Nap of the Meeting — Fontwell 07/09/25

NAP
Overround: 119% Course: Fontwell Time: 14:42 Distance: 2m 3f 29y Runners: 10 Class: 4

#3 De Temps En Temps (Form: 214-34)

J: Sean Bowen T: Martin Keighley Trainer RTF%: 117
NP: 41% IP: 48% Odds: 2.0 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Class edge on known hurdles form and ideal track profile; most likely winner despite a tight market line.
  • Stable/jockey combination in form and suited to Fontwell’s figure-eight rhythm.
  • Market short; model still has the top win chance, but value is trimmed at current odds.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 11/2055%
1

14:12 Fontwell — Southern Cranes And Access Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0–100)

Overround: 122% Runners: 9 Class: 5

#3 Locked Down Lad (Form: 6/PP42)

J: Callum Pritchard T: Joe Tickle Trainer RTF%: 18
NP: 35% IP: 33% Odds: 3.0 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Handicap second signals upside at this trip; top model win chance in a nine-runner setup.
  • NP exceeds IP at current prices, flagging Above Fair on our line.
  • Stamina and recent form uplift align with course demands.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 19/2095%

#1 Barrow Ranger (Form: P3-757)

J: Paddy Hanlon (3) T: John Joseph Hanlon Trainer RTF%: 37 Claim 3lb
NP: 26% IP: 22% Odds: 4.5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Handicap debut better than bare result; selective British raids from the yard are typically live.
  • Top weight offset by 3lb claim; travel stable stats solid.
  • Setup suits a handy ride with ground no issue.
  • Jockey claims 3lb.
Score: 17/2085%

#7 Bebside Banter (Form: 434-53)

J: Freddie Mitchell T: Max Comley Trainer RTF%: 52
NP: 18% IP: 20% Odds: 6.0 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Reliable placer at grade; slightly under value for win but strong frame proposition.
  • Prominent style plays well around here.
  • Recent figures consistent with holding pattern.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 12/2060%
2

14:42 Fontwell — V2 Radio Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

Overround: 119% Runners: 10 Class: 4

#3 De Temps En Temps (Form: 214-34)

J: Sean Bowen T: Martin Keighley Trainer RTF%: 117
NP: 41% IP: 48% Odds: 2.0 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Most solid hurdles platform; short in market but retains highest likelihood on jump ability.
  • Cromwell-form transfer and rider booking a plus.
  • Course rewards his neat technique and rhythm.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 11/2055%

#2 Cinnodin (Form: (77F))

J: Gavin Sheehan T: Jamie Snowden Trainer RTF%: 40
NP: 29% IP: 26% Odds: 3.75 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Six-time Flat scorer brings pace; stable excels transitioning recruits to timber.
  • NP above IP yields positive value signal.
  • Strong jockey upgrade for this track’s turns.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 11/2055%

#10 King's Reign (Form: (37F))

J: Caoilin Quinn T: Gary & Josh Moore Trainer RTF%: 46
NP: 18% IP: 15% Odds: 7.0 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Debut over hurdles for local yard adept at Fontwell; has agility for this circuit.
  • Fair-to-Above Fair at current tissue.
  • Receives WFA; schooling reports positive.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 9/2045%
3

15:12 Fontwell — Southern Contract Lifting Handicap Chase (0–100)

Overround: 124% Runners: 5 Class: 5

#4 Blackacre (Form: 23-611)

J: Adam Wedge T: Evan Williams Trainer RTF%: 27
NP: 40% IP: 56% Odds: 1.8 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Hat-trick seeker; most reliable stayer on current form despite cramped odds.
  • Recent Newton Abbot wins translate well here.
  • Below Fair at the price; win chance still top.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 11/2055%

#1 Lough Owel (Form: 0057-2)

J: Bryan Carver T: D Summersby Trainer RTF%: 33
NP: 32% IP: 21% Odds: 4.5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Strong reappearance second; handicapped to threaten over this trip.
  • NP exceeds IP at mid-single-digit odds.
  • Profiles to pressure the fav late.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 16/2080%

#3 Ballynaheer (Form: P43-36)

J: Jonathan Burke T: David Dennis Trainer RTF%: 100
NP: 18% IP: 17% Odds: 6.5 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent marks; honest stayer who benefits if pace collapses.
  • Near-Fair on our tissue.
  • Stable form buoyant; place solidity.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 11/2055%
4

15:42 Fontwell — Bet Clever BetGoodwin Handicap Hurdle (0–110)

Overround: 121% Runners: 5 Class: 4

#2 Pahlavi (Form: 873051)

J: Paddy Hanlon (5) T: John Joseph Hanlon Trainer RTF%: 37 Claim 5lb
NP: 34% IP: 48% Odds: 2.63 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Comes off an Irish win; claimant helps, but market is tight for value.
  • Travelled well last time; similar setup likely.
  • Below Fair at guide odds but highest chance.
  • Jockey claims 5lb.
Score: 11/2055%

#1 Goodwin (Form: /66-P0)

J: Freddie Gordon (3) T: Chris Gordon Trainer RTF%: 100 Claim 3lb
NP: 33% IP: 20% Odds: 6.0 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Significant class drop and home track; value-positive with potential to dictate.
  • NP well above IP; Above Fair.
  • Could control fractions with claim aboard.
  • Jockey claims 3lb.
Score: 15/2075%

#3 Sun Joy (Form: /P527-)

J: Ben Jones T: Ben Pauling Trainer RTF%: 75
NP: 21% IP: 22% Odds: 4.5 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Tempting mark and okay recent run; fitness to build second-up.
  • Borderline value at current price band.
  • Stays 2m3f; late threat scenario.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 8/2040%
5

16:12 Fontwell — RJS Waste Management UK Handicap Chase (GBB) (0–110)

Overround: 122% Runners: 5 Class: 4

#2 Lermoos Legend (Form: -22221)

J: Sean Bowen T: Mickey Bowen Trainer RTF%: 56
NP: 36% IP: 42% Odds: 2.63 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Ultra-consistent and fresh from a win; most likely in a tight five-runner.
  • Below Fair at likely odds; stability still wins out.
  • Pace map and marks ideal for trip.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 15/2075%

#5 Big Jimbo (Form: /5/P/1)

J: Freddie Mitchell (5) T: Gary & Josh Moore Trainer RTF%: 46 Claim 5lb
NP: 34% IP: 40% Odds: 2.88 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Impressive return and scope to improve; near co-likely with marginal underlay.
  • Local yard targets this venue well.
  • Claimer’s offset aids tactical press.
  • Jockey claims 5lb.
Score: 17/2085%

#4 Atreides (Form: 24PP-7)

J: Conor O’Farrell T: Neil Mulholland Trainer RTF%: 46
NP: 18% IP: 18% Odds: 5.5 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Well handicapped second-up over fences; fair quote to stalk and nab a slice.
  • Chase debut showed enough mid-race.
  • Fair value in 11/2 zone.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 8/2040%
6

16:42 Fontwell — BetGoodwin Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Cat 1) (GBB)

Overround: 121% Runners: 8 Class: 5

#7 Lady Kara (Form: 23)

J: Luke Scott (5) T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole Trainer RTF%: 55 Claim 5lb
NP: 39% IP: 38% Odds: 2.5 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Sets the bumper standard; first-time hood should optimize settling and finish.
  • Fair-to-Above Fair borderline on our line.
  • Connections adept with bumper types.
  • Jockey claims 5lb.
Score: 15/2075%

#8 Mirror Of Illusion (Form: —)

J: Gavin Sheehan T: Jamie Snowden Trainer RTF%: 40
NP: 32% IP: 29% Odds: 3.5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Well-bred newcomer for a yard with a strong bumper record; value-positive to challenge late.
  • Jockey booking noteworthy for debutant.
  • Pedigree suggests stamina for finish.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 17/2085%

#2 Opening Dance (Form: 84)

J: Ben Jones T: Emma Lavelle Trainer RTF%: 63
NP: 20% IP: 24% Odds: 4.0 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Took a step forward at Worcester; place lines stronger than win at trimmed quotes.
  • Stable form steady for summer bumpers.
  • Needs honest pace to maximize late run.
  • No notable weight change and no claim in play.
Score: 12/2060%

Notes

Pricing & Probabilities

NP Normalised Probability — model win chance (%).

IP Implied Probability — book’s win chance from odds (%).

Overround bookmaker margin — Green 100–115%, Orange 116–117%, Red 118%+.

Value Flags

AF Above Fair — price better than our line.

F Fair — price about right.

BF Below Fair — underlay; trim stake.

Efficiency & Score

SecEff Sectional Efficiency — ~0.88–0.90 is “on-song”.

Score/% composite (0–20) and % scaled.

Weights & Claims

Wt: 11-4 Horse’s official weight (stones–pounds or kg). Leave blank if unknown.

Claim 5lb Jockey claim in pounds.

We only display **actual** weights; no “up/down” statements.

Legend (quick reference)

  • NP
    Model win chance (%).
  • IP
    Implied from odds (%).
  • 100–115%
    Book margin (green best).
  • AF
    Value vs our line.
  • Score
    Composite /20.
  • %
    Score as %.

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