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York 07/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

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Bet Smart & Win
York — Sun 07/09/25
Races: 7 (1–10)

We bet value when our NP exceeds market IP and the book’s overround is ~100–115% (green); higher margins = tighter staking.

Nap of the Meeting — York 07/09/25

NAP
Overround: 112% Course: York Time: 16:30 Distance: 6f Runners: 11 Class: 1

#1 Lethal Levi (Form: -35241)

J: Clifford Lee T: K R Burke Trainer RTF%: 45
NP: 31% IP: 25% Odds: 4.0 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Recent win with Listed-level figures; final-2f sustain suits York’s 6f.
  • Stable’s sprinting record here is strong; pace profile even-to-strong.
  • NP > IP within a 112% overround (green) = Above Fair.
Score: 15/2075%
1

14:30 York — Enter ITV7 For Free "Confined" EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB) (C2) (2yo)

Overround: 112% Runners: 9 Class: 2

#2 Crown Office (Form: 2)

J: Cieren Fallon T: William Haggas Trainer RTF%: 68
NP: 29% IP: 26% Odds: 3.8 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Debut second sets the form standard; Haggas second-start uplift.
  • Handy 7f profile suits mixed-good surface.
  • AF with NP > IP under 112% overround.
Score: 11/2055%

#3 Delinquent (Form: 2)

J: Sam James T: K R Burke Trainer RTF%: 45
NP: 24% IP: 22% Odds: 4.5 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Second-up step expected; stalk-and-pounce setup at 7f.
  • Sectionals hint stamina efficiency on easing ground.
  • Value improves if price holds ≥5.0.
Score: 11/2055%

#9 Secret History (Form: 3)

J: Kieran Shoemark T: Ed Walker Trainer RTF%: 45
NP: 19% IP: 18% Odds: 6.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Debut hinted sharp improvement; filly with entries.
  • Travelled like a winner; second-start angle strong.
  • Filly allowance a subtle tailwind on mixed-good going.
Score: 9/2045%
2

15:00 York — Sky Bet Super Sub Sprint Handicap (C2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Overround: 113% Runners: 15 Class: 2

#7 Air Force One (Form: 20-913)

J: P J McDonald T: Geoff Oldroyd Trainer RTF%: 100
NP: 27% IP: 21% Odds: 4.5 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Course third last time; upside with stands’ side bias.
  • Progressive figures; strong late-phase efficiency.
  • Trainer red-hot; NP > IP within green band.
Score: 12/2060%

#6 Dan Tucker (Form: 152182)

J: Warren Fentiman T: Jedd O’Keeffe Trainer RTF%: 50 Claim 5lb
NP: 22% IP: 18% Odds: 6.0 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Reliable finisher; pace likely strong.
  • Claim boosts efficiency-to-weight ratio.
  • Tracks and pounces best.
  • Jockey claims 5lb.
Score: 8/2040%

#3 Bergerac (Form: 521430)

J: Tom Eaves T: Kevin Ryan Trainer RTF%: 31
NP: 16% IP: 14% Odds: 10.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • York-savvy sprinter; handy slot and stick on.
  • Early cadence control keeps him competitive.
  • Place angle more compelling than win.
Score: 3/2015%
3

15:30 York — Skybet Proud To Support ROR Stayers Handicap (GBBPlus) (C3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Overround: 111% Runners: 10 Class: 3

#4 Artisan Dancer (Form: 307322)

J: Jason Hart T: Charlie Johnston Trainer RTF%: 58
NP: 30% IP: 26% Odds: 3.5 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Durable stayer; tactical control mid-race.
  • Reliable ratings in this class.
  • NP in target band and > IP.
Score: 15/2075%

#9 Diamond Bay (Form: 170843)

J: Jim Crowley T: Tom Ward Trainer RTF%: 62
NP: 22% IP: 19% Odds: 6.5 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Back on song; strong ride booking for 2m.
  • Even pace scenario ideal; stamina assured.
  • NP > IP yields AF edge.
Score: 11/2055%

#7 Umbria (Form: -39524)

J: Kieran Shoemark T: Ed Walker Trainer RTF%: 45
NP: 17% IP: 16% Odds: 8.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Lightly raced stayer with incremental progress.
  • Sectionals support strong-late run.
  • Fair price; frame appeal.
Score: 7/2035%
4

16:00 York — Sky Bet Extra Places Middle Distance Handicap (GBBPlus) (C3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Overround: 112% Runners: 12 Class: 3

#6 Danger Bay (Form: 2-311)

J: Callum Rodriguez T: Edward Bethell Trainer RTF%: 50
NP: 28% IP: 25% Odds: 3.25 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Highly progressive; 10f setup ideal.
  • Strong last-3f efficiency.
  • AF with NP in target band.
Score: 13/2067%

#8 Per Contra (Form: 523632)

J: David Allan T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 50
NP: 21% IP: 18% Odds: 6.0 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent; course know-how helps.
  • Late kick effective off even gallop.
  • Solid each-way proposition.
Score: 11/2055%

#10 Hornsea Bay (Form: 474426)

J: Kevin Stott T: David O’Meara Trainer RTF%: 53
NP: 16% IP: 14% Odds: 9.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Close repeatedly in similar grade; efficient late speed.
  • Better with even-to-strong gallop.
  • Frame angle; win needs breaks.
Score: 7/2035%
5

16:30 York — Sky Bet Starman Garrowby Stakes (Listed) (C1) (3yo+)

Overround: 112% Runners: 11 Class: 1

#1 Lethal Levi (Form: -35241)

J: Clifford Lee T: K R Burke Trainer RTF%: 45
NP: 31% IP: 25% Odds: 4.0 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Recent win; Listed-level figures match task.
  • Handles a touch of ease; track-suited.
  • Strong draw/run-style match.
Score: 15/2075%

#5 Almeraq (Form: 21-21)

J: Jim Crowley T: William Haggas Trainer RTF%: 68
NP: 24% IP: 22% Odds: 5.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Rapidly progressive 3yo with tactical versatility.
  • 2–4f sustained fraction a weapon.
  • WFA pull vs elders.
Score: 11/2055%

#8 Prince Of India (Form: 121211)

J: David Egan T: Marco Botti Trainer RTF%: 44
NP: 18% IP: 16% Odds: 6.5 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Thriving winner stepping into Listed grade.
  • Strong temperament and closing power.
  • WFA pull aids competitiveness.
Score: 9/2045%
6

17:00 York — Sky Bet Build A Bet Fillies' Handicap (C3) (3yo+ 0-90)

Overround: 111% Runners: 10 Class: 3

#6 Seren Star (Form: 3411)

J: Cieren Fallon T: William Haggas Trainer RTF%: 68
NP: 30% IP: 26% Odds: 3.75 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Hat-trick seeker with rising RPRs; ideal 1m setup.
  • Efficient mid/late splits align with track.
  • Jockey booking a positive signal.
Score: 12/2060%

#7 Revelance (Form: 72-11)

J: Hector Crouch T: Ralph Beckett Trainer RTF%: 51
NP: 23% IP: 21% Odds: 5.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Unexposed filly on the rise.
  • Tactical speed to hold position.
  • Each-way solidity.
Score: 9/2045%

#9 Folkene (Form: 472131)

J: Joanna Mason T: Roger Fell Trainer RTF%: 73
NP: 17% IP: 15% Odds: 8.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent handicapper; ground/trip ideal.
  • Trainer form a tailwind.
  • Place play makes sense.
Score: 7/2035%
7

17:30 York — Sky Bet, For The Fans Mile Apprentice Handicap (C4) (3yo+ 0-85)

Overround: 114% Runners: 17 Class: 4

#7 Earthwatch (Form: 465321)

J: Warren Fentiman T: William Haggas Trainer RTF%: 68
NP: 28% IP: 23% Odds: 3.75 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Progressive 3yo off a win; workable mark.
  • Efficient energy over the extended mile.
  • NP inside preferred band and > IP.
Score: 11/2055%

#16 Harswell Ruby (Form: 029822)

J: Jack Nicholls T: Roger Fell Trainer RTF%: 73 Claim 3lb
NP: 21% IP: 18% Odds: 8.0 Wt: — AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • String of placings suggests win close.
  • Pace-to-chase scenario suits.
  • Claim enhances efficiency.
  • Jockey claims 3lb.
Score: 8/2040%

#13 Theme Park (Form: 097554)

J: Ethan Tindall T: Nigel Tinkler Trainer RTF%: 50 Claim 5lb
NP: 16% IP: 14% Odds: 14.0 Wt: — F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Well treated on older form; track familiarity helps.
  • Sustained mid-race cadence a plus.
  • Frame angle preferred.
  • Jockey claims 5lb.
Score: 5/2025%

Notes

Pricing & Probabilities

NP Normalised Probability — model win chance (%).

IP Implied Probability — book’s win chance from odds (%).

Overround bookmaker margin — Green 100–115%, Orange 116–117%, Red 118%+.

Value Flags

AF Above Fair — price better than our line.

F Fair — price about right.

BF Below Fair — underlay; trim stake.

Efficiency & Score

SecEff Sectional Efficiency — ~0.88–0.90 is “on-song”.

Score/% composite (0–20) and % scaled.

Weights & Claims

Wt: — Horse’s carried weight for this race (enter actual figure).

Claim 5lb Jockey claim in pounds.

We show weight as a standard pill alongside NP/IP/Odds; no “up/down” statements.

Legend (quick reference)

  • NP
    Model win chance (%).
  • IP
    Implied from odds (%).
  • 100–115%
    Book margin (green best).
  • AF
    Value vs our line.
  • Score
    Composite /20.
  • %
    Score as %.

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