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Newcastle 08/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

#Analysis, #Betting, #Horse Racing, #Predictions, #Sport
Bet Smart & Win
Newcastle (AW) — Mon 08/09/25
Races: 9 (1–9)

We bet value when our NP exceeds market IP and the book’s overround is 100–115% (green); higher margins = tighter staking.

Next Best — Newcastle (AW) 08/09/25

NB
Overround: 113% Course: Newcastle (AW) Time: 16:39 Distance: 1m Runners: 8 Class: 5

#3 Hosanna Power (Form: 394666)

J: David Allan T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 49
NP: 21% IP: 14% Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-6 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Two earlier C&D efforts rate higher than recent figures imply.
  • NP comfortably exceeds IP at a fair overround.
  • Sectional cadence suits Newcastle’s long run-in.
  • Handicap mark workable for a rebound.
12/2060%
1

16:39 Newcastle (AW) — Arc All-Weather £1Million Bonus Returns Handicap (0–75) (4yo+)

Overround: 112% Runners: 8 Class: 5

#3 Hosanna Power (Form: 394666)

J: David Allan T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 49
NP: 21% IP: 14% Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-6 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Two earlier C&D efforts rate higher than recent figures imply.
  • Normalized probability exceeds implied at a fair overround.
  • Sectional cadence suits Newcastle’s long run-in.
  • Handicap mark workable for a rebound.
12/2060%

#1 Ninth Life (Form: 1-4364)

J: Joanna Mason T: Ruth Carr Trainer RTF%: 39
NP: 22% IP: 21% Odds: 4.8 Wt: 9-9 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Solid profile at the trip with consistent ratings.
  • Prominent style fits straight-track tempo.
  • Price roughly fair after margin adjustment.
  • Reliable for exotics.
11/2055%

#2 Lechuga Lad (Form: 395301)

J: Paul Mulrennan T: James Fanshawe Trainer RTF%: 65
NP: 19% IP: 29% Odds: 3.4 Wt: 9-6 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Comes in off a win but market looks warm.
  • Implied exceeds our normalized — underlay risk.
  • Still ranks on class and rider synergy.
  • Well-positioned tactically.
10/2050%
2

17:10 Newcastle (AW) — Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (0–75) (3yo+)

Overround: 111% Runners: 6 Class: 5

#6 Hatysa (Form: -45814)

J: P J McDonald T: Andrew Balding Trainer RTF%: 56
NP: 34% IP: 33% Odds: 3.0 Wt: 9-4 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Unexposed 3yo with WFA pulling power.
  • Stays well at 2m on Tapeta.
  • Normalized edges implied at a fair margin.
  • Expected to grind late.
14/2070%

#2 Weddell Sea (Form: 152082)

J: Cam Hardie T: Mike Sowersby Trainer RTF%: 72
NP: 28% IP: 26% Odds: 3.8 Wt: 10-1 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • C&D suitability proven with reliable late fractions.
  • Pacing map favors a strong finisher.
  • Pricing near fair after normalization.
  • Fit and consistent.
12/2060%

#1 Si Solus (Form: 223)

J: David Allan T: Gay Kelleway Trainer RTF%: 25
NP: 21% IP: 20% Odds: 5.0 Wt: 10-2 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent placer; weight the main headwind.
  • SecEff okay without a sharp kick.
  • Fair value, small NP over IP.
  • Reliable map into the race.
10/2050%
3

17:40 Newcastle (AW) — Get Raceday Ready Novice Stakes (GBB) (2yo)

Overround: 113% Runners: 14 Class: 5

#12 Dark Angel Star (Form: 43)

J: Clifford Lee T: James Tate Trainer RTF%: 47
NP: 30% IP: 22% Odds: 4.5 Wt: 9-2 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Sets the standard among those with experience.
  • AW sprint yard excels here.
  • NP clears IP at a fair margin.
  • Efficient first 3f distribution suits the track.
13/2065%

#6 Mind Over Matter (Form: 24)

J: Jason Hart T: John & Sean Quinn Trainer RTF%: 28
NP: 27% IP: 25% Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-7 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Debut promise; returns to a straight 5f.
  • Strong early cadence; sticks on late.
  • Fair price after normalization.
  • Upside to progress.
12/2060%

#4 Lord Harcourt (Form: 04)

J: Paul Mulrennan T: Ed Walker Trainer RTF%: 50
NP: 18% IP: 20% Odds: 5.5 Wt: 9-7 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Improving after a good fourth at Thirsk.
  • Top-3 claims on upside and stable health.
  • Price a touch short vs our line.
  • Still competitive on projection.
9/2045%
4

18:10 Newcastle (AW) — Free Bets On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB) (3yo+)

Overround: 110% Runners: 6 Class: 5

#1 Raammee (Form: 1)

J: Silvestre De Sousa T: Roger Varian Trainer RTF%: 59
NP: 57% IP: 55% Odds: 1.82 Wt: 9-11 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Highly promising debut and strong yard.
  • Penalty should be manageable.
  • Sustained speed profile fits the mile.
  • Normalized > implied at modest margin.
18/2090%

#5 Symphony Of Joy (Form: 4)

J: Daniel Tudhope T: Kevin Frost Trainer RTF%: 47
NP: 21% IP: 19% Odds: 5.2 Wt: 9-4 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Likeable debut; scope to improve second-up.
  • Fair small-field overlay on our line.
  • Well placed tactically.
  • Progression angle intact.
11/2055%

#6 Terrapin (Form: 9-8)

J: P J McDonald T: Andrew Balding Trainer RTF%: 56
NP: 10% IP: 9% Odds: 12.0 Wt: 9-4 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Needs a step forward but stable’s AW record is a positive.
  • Small value with improvement possible.
  • Place chance in a thin field.
  • Could benefit from pace collapse.
7/2035%
5

18:40 Newcastle (AW) — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Handicap (0–60) (4yo+)

Overround: 114% Runners: 13 Class: 6

#4 Jesmond Dawn (Form: 326557)

J: Oliver Stammers T: Grant Tuer Trainer RTF%: 50
NP: 22% IP: 15% Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-8 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Well treated and an eyecatcher last time when unlucky in the run.
  • NP comfortably exceeds IP.
  • Late-section strength suits the straight mile.
  • Track craft fits the setup.
12/2060%

#1 Jewel Maker (Form: 353351)

J: David Allan T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 49
NP: 20% IP: 29% Odds: 3.5 Wt: 9-12 (4ex) BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • In good heart but under a penalty.
  • Market a touch warm vs model.
  • Still figures to contend on recent form.
  • Versatile tactically.
11/2055%

#8 Woodleigh (Form: 038234)

J: Mark Winn T: Roger Fell Trainer RTF%: 62
NP: 14% IP: 12% Odds: 9.0 Wt: 9-5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent placer with a tractable style.
  • Slight overlay; NP above IP.
  • Suited if early pace is steady.
  • Exotics friendly.
9/2045%
6

19:10 Newcastle (AW) — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap (0–55) (3yo+)

Overround: 114% Runners: 12 Class: 6

#6 Woodrafff (Form: 084148)

J: William Pyle T: Ruth Carr Trainer RTF%: 39
NP: 24% IP: 20% Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-4 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Recent win for the yard; still fairly treated.
  • Efficient cruising speed ideal for 7f straight.
  • NP exceeds IP at current tissue.
  • Handy draw to stalk and pounce.
12/2060%

#1 Overlooked (Form: 755734)

J: Joe Fanning T: Harriet Bethell Trainer RTF%: 75
NP: 22% IP: 22% Odds: 4.0 Wt: 9-9 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent figures with strong speed ratings.
  • Fair on price after normalization.
  • Should travel smoothly in this field.
  • Top-3 anchor.
11/2055%

#11 Almutraf (Form: 195060)

J: Ben Robinson T: Brian Ellison Trainer RTF%: 22
NP: 12% IP: 10% Odds: 10.0 Wt: 9-0 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Returns to C&D with a workable mark.
  • Late kick effective at Newcastle.
  • Small value with IP below NP.
  • Place chance at double figures.
8/2040%
7

19:40 Newcastle (AW) — At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap (0–55) (3yo+)

Overround: 113% Runners: 11 Class: 6

#2 Gis A Sub (Form: 966627)

J: David Nolan T: Paul Midgley Trainer RTF%: 43
NP: 26% IP: 18% Odds: 6.0 Wt: 9-9 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Back to AW after a solid Ripon run; wide draw excuses prior.
  • NP clears IP; overlay on our line.
  • Should get a slot and finish.
  • Trip/track ideal.
12/2060%

#7 Mission In Malton (Form: 604342)

J: David Allan T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 49
NP: 25% IP: 27% Odds: 3.7 Wt: 9-0 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Reliable recent form; primary win threat.
  • Market slightly short vs our model.
  • Good map to sit close and strike.
  • Finishes off 6f well.
11/2055%

#1 Bibendum (Form: 403781)

J: Ryan Sexton T: Julie Camacho Trainer RTF%: 32
NP: 19% IP: 22% Odds: 4.5 Wt: 9-9 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Latest win off steady fractions; set-up less certain now.
  • Price a shade tight; still a contender.
  • Versatile run style.
  • Top-3 on achieved level.
10/2050%
8

20:10 Newcastle (AW) — Arc £1Million Bonus Bigger Than Ever Handicap (Div I) (0–65) (3yo+)

Overround: 114% Runners: 11 Class: 6

#7 Startling (Form: 333652)

J: Daniel Tudhope T: David O’Meara Trainer RTF%: 50
NP: 27% IP: 20% Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Consistent 5f placer; AW suitability clear.
  • Good tracking draw and rider timing.
  • NP over IP indicates value.
  • Finisher on the long straight.
13/2065%

#5 Zoulu Warrior (Form: 0640-1)

J: Warren Fentiman T: Heather Main Trainer RTF%: 10
NP: 26% IP: 28% Odds: 3.6 Wt: 9-7 BF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Recent winning return; back to Tapeta suits.
  • Market slightly ahead of our number.
  • Still a major win chance.
  • Positive current condition.
12/2060%

#10 Desert Master (Form: 409092)

J: Cam Hardie T: Antony Brittain Trainer RTF%: 36
NP: 16% IP: 14% Odds: 8.0 Wt: 8-11 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Late-running profile magnified by the long 5f straight.
  • Recent figures point to a podium push.
  • Small overlay vs tissue.
  • Strong finisher if pace honest.
9/2045%
9

20:40 Newcastle (AW) — Arc £1Million Bonus Bigger Than Ever Handicap (Div II) (0–65) (3yo+)

Overround: 113% Runners: 9 Class: 6

#9 Dorothy May (Form: 009621)

J: Duran Fentiman T: Tim Easterby Trainer RTF%: 49
NP: 31% IP: 24% Odds: 4.2 Wt: 8-13 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Comes here off a C&D win with more to offer.
  • NP comfortably tops IP; model-approved overlay.
  • SecEff supports repeat on similar race shape.
  • Draw and pace map friendly.
14/2070%

#6 Henery Hawk (Form: 756121)

J: Kaiya Fraser T: Linda Perratt Trainer RTF%: 25
NP: 28% IP: 20% Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-5 AF
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • In form and effective at 5f.
  • Speed/stalk style maps well to the straight.
  • NP over IP signals value.
  • Main danger to the top pick.
12/2060%

#3 A Girl Named Ivy (Form: 822404)

J: Sean Kirrane T: Michael Dods Trainer RTF%: 35
NP: 15% IP: 14% Odds: 8.0 Wt: 9-8 F
Why we like this (4 bullets)
  • Reliable figures at 5f/6f; consistent place player.
  • Fair value around current quotes.
  • Up against two upwardly mobile rivals.
  • Still viable for the frame.
9/2045%

Pricing & Probabilities — Quick Guide

Overround

Overround = (Σ Implied Probabilities of all runners) × 100

Bookmaker margin on the race. 100% is a “fair book”. Anything above 100% reflects the built-in margin.

Implied Probability (IP)

IP = 1 / Decimal Odds

The probability implied directly by the current odds (before margin is removed).

Normalised Probability (NP)

NPi = IPi / (Σ IP) × 100

Each runner’s probability rescaled so that all runners sum to 100% (margin removed). Use NP to compare “true” chances.

Overround / Margin — Colour Key

100–115% 116–117% 118% & Above 99% & Below

Lower is better for the bettor. We highlight the book’s tightness with these pills.

Value Flags

Above Fair (AF)
Our model’s fair chance exceeds the market’s price (NP > IP). Positive value.
Fair (F)
Model and market broadly agree (NP ≈ IP). Neutral value.
Below Fair (BF)
Market is shorter than our fair view (NP < IP). Negative value.

Sectional Efficiency (SecEff)

SecEff ≈ (Actual sectional distribution) / (Optimal distribution)

How efficiently a horse used energy across race segments (0–1+). ~1.00 indicates near-optimal pacing; sustained figures >0.88 are typically strong.

Score / %

Composite score from core signals (NP, SecEff, trainer/jockey, suitability, etc.)

Our single, comparable rating. Higher score = stronger all-round profile today.

Weights & Claims

Weight (Wt)
Declared racing weight carried by the horse. Shown as a simple pill for quick reference.
Claim
Allowance taken off by an eligible (often apprentice/conditional) jockey, effectively reducing carried weight.

Notes: We show Wt and any Claim as separate pills; no “up/down” commentary is implied here.

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