Bet Smart & Win
Carlisle — Tue 09/09/25
Races: 7 (1–7)
We bet value when our NP exceeds market IP. Tighter overrounds are better (100–115% = green).
NAP — Carlisle 09/09/25
NAP#1 One Night Thunder (Form: 066931)
Details
Odds: 3.75
Weight: 10-0 (5ex)
F
Why this is the NAP
- Fresh C&D winner with profile strength on soft.
- SecEff and finishing power match Carlisle’s climb.
- NP ≥ IP in a medium book; penalty workable.
- Stable running hot; clean tactical map.
17/2085%
1
16:15 Carlisle — LPD Doors EBF Fillies’ Restricted Novice (2yo)
#4 Isle Of Fernandez (Form: 18-529)
Details
Odds: 1.50Weight: 9-0AF
Why we like this
- Form standout dropping from hot maidens.
- Ease in grade; soft fine.
- Model edge despite tight book.
- SecEff suitable tracking pace.
16/2080%
#5 Perineighs (Form: 87-49)
Details
Odds: 6.00Weight: 9-0F
Why we like this
- Debut promise; can stalk and stay.
- Ground okay; stamina aids finish.
- Fair at current tissue.
- Second best on balance.
11/2055%
#9 Vega’s Virtue (Form: —)
Details
Odds: 8.50Weight: 9-0AF
Why we like this
- Yard’s juveniles robust on soft.
- Experience profile in stable helps.
- NP ≥ IP small overlay.
- Exotics value for frame.
9/2045%
2
16:45 Carlisle — Quooker Tap Nursery (2yo 0–70)
#2 Boy Named Sioux (Form: 4-8-3-7)
Details
Odds: 5.50Weight: 9-9AF
Why we like this
- Progressing into nursery grade.
- Strong jockey booking; soft suits.
- NP > IP overlay.
- Mid-pack SecEff ideal here.
13/2065%
#9 Rum Therapy (Form: 8-3-6-1)
Details
Odds: 5.00Weight: 9-3AF
Why we like this
- Recent winner; holds form.
- Climb aids late strength.
- NP slightly ahead of IP.
- Solid place foundation.
12/2060%
#8 Popty Ping (Form: 0-3-2-4)
Details
Odds: 4.75Weight: 9-3BF
Why we like this
- Consistent placer; reliable.
- Value a touch thin (IP > NP).
- Right map to stalk.
- Top-3 probability remains high.
11/2055%
3
17:15 Carlisle — Jigtech Change Handicap (0–58)
#1 Edgewater Drive (Form: 114-04)
Details
Odds: 7.00Weight: 9-9AF
Why we like this
- Two-time C&D scorer; course bias suits.
- Ready to peak off encouraging run.
- NP comfortably over IP.
- SecEff matches stiff finish.
13/2065%
#8 Giselles Izzy (Form: 413223)
Details
Odds: 4.50Weight: 9-6BF
Why we like this
- Ultra-consistent; grinder profile.
- Value a touch short vs model.
- Still high top-3 chance.
- Handles ease in ground.
12/2060%
#5 Bella Love (Form: 945942)
Details
Odds: 6.25Weight: 9-7F
Why we like this
- Knocking on the door; workable mark.
- Trip/track okay; late run.
- Fair on prices.
- Frame chance.
10/2050%
4
17:45 Carlisle — Quickstep Floor Designer Supporting Andersons H’cap
#10 Ramon Di Loria (Form: 554552)
Details
Odds: 8.00Weight: 9-3AF
Why we like this
- Reliable figures; soft competency.
- NP > IP; overlay spot.
- Late slingshot suits 5f climb.
- Draw/pace workable.
12/2060%
#3 Yazaman (Form: 605273)
Details
Odds: 9.00Weight: 9-8AF
Why we like this
- Handy mark; consistency uptick.
- NP exceeds IP; value line.
- Strong late fraction potential.
- Track plays to stamina.
11/2055%
#8 Chief Of State (Form: -95481)
Details
Odds: 5.50Weight: 9-6 (5ex)BF
Why we like this
- In form but price a touch short.
- May face pace heat.
- Still top-3 on repeat figure.
- SecEff neutral.
10/2050%
5
18:15 Carlisle — Andersons Maiden Stakes (3yo+)
#11 Sound Janet (Form: 2-352)
Details
Odds: 1.85Weight: 9-2BF
Why we like this
- Clear top ability; soft fine.
- Price tight but dominant win chance.
- SecEff for sustained final 3f.
- Benchmark filly on ratings.
16/2080%
#8 Thosewerethedays (Form: 7-33)
Details
Odds: 2.85Weight: 9-7BF
Why we like this
- Progressive; main danger.
- Price a shade short vs model.
- Trip/track to suit.
- Hard to keep out of frame.
14/2070%
#6 Provision (Form: —)
Details
Odds: 16.0Weight: 9-7AF
Why we like this
- Unexposed; stamina hints.
- Small overlay on NP/IP.
- Third-best by model gap.
- Pedigree suggests handling cut.
8/2040%
6
18:45 Carlisle — Hoover Handicap (0–68)
#1 Hostelry (Form: 422134)
Details
Odds: 7.50Weight: 10-0AF
Why we like this
- Dual C&D winner; course specialist.
- NP > IP; strong value read.
- Soft-ground resilience.
- Draw workable; rider claims.
13/2065%
#2 Ravishing Beauty (Form: 442112)
Details
Odds: 5.00Weight: 9-13F
Why we like this
- In strong form; prominent style.
- Neutral value but reliable.
- Soft/track okay.
- Contender late.
12/2060%
#10 Lunanova (Form: 861131)
Details
Odds: 3.45Weight: 9-5 (6ex)BF
Why we like this
- Progressive but price heavy.
- Still top-3 on recent wins.
- SecEff suitable at 7f.
- Wide draw manageable.
11/2055%
7
19:15 Carlisle — Deanta Fire Door Handicap (0–75)
#1 One Night Thunder (Form: 066931)
Details
Odds: 3.75Weight: 10-0 (5ex)F
Why we like this
- Recent C&D winner; soft ideal.
- SecEff/finishing power fit course.
- Penalty manageable; NP ≥ IP.
- Strong stable form.
17/2085%
#6 Chesneys Charm (Form: 855144)
Details
Odds: 8.50Weight: 9-9AF
Why we like this
- SecEff improves late on soft.
- Overlay on NP/IP.
- Stays 7f well.
- Yard flying.
13/2065%
#4 Exposay (Form: 56-41)
Details
Odds: 9.00
Weight: 9-10AF
Why we like this
- Maiden winner with upside.
- SecEff hints at further improvement.
- NP ≥ IP marginal overlay.
- Map friendly for a pounce.
12/2060%
Reference (Pricing, Probabilities & Value)
Pricing & Probabilities — Quick Guide
Overround
Overround = (Σ Implied Probabilities of all runners) × 100
100% is a “fair book”. Above 100% is margin. Lower is better for the bettor.
Implied Probability (IP)
IP = 1 / Decimal Odds
Normalised Probability (NP)
NPi = IPi / (Σ IP) × 100
Value Flags
AF (NP > IP) = positive value; F (≈) = neutral; BF (NP < IP) = negative.