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Uttoxeter 11/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

#Analysis, #Betting, #Horse Racing, #Predictions, #Sport
Bet Smart & Win
Uttoxeter — Thu 11/09/25
Races: 6 (1–6)

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.

How To Pick Winners

We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:

  • Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
  • Runners: Between 8–12
  • Value: Above Fair (Green)
  • Class: 5, 4, 3
  • Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
  • NP: 27% or Above
  • IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
  • Best days to bet: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (statistically strongest)

Uttoxeter 11/09/25 — NAP

NAP
Overround: 114% Race: 18:05 (R4) Distance: 2m3f207y Runners: 10 Class: 3

#7 Liverpool Knight (Form: 35-442)

J: Jonathan Burke NP: 30% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien Trainer RTF%: 80 Odds: 11/2 Wt: 11-5 AF
Why this is the NAP
  • Consistent in 0–130; trip/ground optimal; NP>IP value gap.
  • Qualifies on overround, class, field size and whitelist jockey.
  • Tactical versatility suits Uttoxeter; stable in form.
1

16:30 Uttoxeter — QuinnBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB) — 2m7f70y

Overround: 112% Runners: 5 Going: Good Class: 4

#5 Betty’s Tiara (Form: 30-222)

J: Callum Pritchard (5) NP: 31% IP: 36%
Details
Trainer: Ben Pauling Trainer RTF%: 80 Odds: 5/4 Wt: 10-11 F
Notes
  • Reliable placer; sets a clear small-field standard.
  • Price a shade tight; high probability to finish 1–2.
  • Prominent ride should suit the tempo on Good ground.

#2 De Temps En Temps (Form: 214-34)

J: Sean Bowen NP: 33% IP: 36%
Details
Trainer: Martin Keighley Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 11/8 Wt: 11-4 F
Notes
  • Placed form reads well; stamina test manageable at this pace.
  • Fair but fractionally overbet; strong win/place probability.
  • Whitelist jockey boosts efficiency around Uttoxeter.

#3 Fairlawn Skipper (Form: 3-12)

J: Shane Fenelon (5) NP: 23% IP: 27%
Details
Trainer: Mickey Bowen Trainer RTF%: 64 Odds: 6/1 Wt: 11-4 F
Notes
  • Bumper winner; scope switching to hurdles over a stayers’ trip.
  • Fair zone; place claims if jumping holds.
  • Likely to track leaders and keep on.
2

17:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion Cardiac Risk In The Young Charity H’cap Chase — 1m7f214y

Overround: 114% Runners: 9 Going: Good Class: 5

#2 Dexter (Form: 3P-231)

J: Henry Brooke NP: 30% IP: 29%
Details
Trainer: O Greenall & J Guerriero Trainer RTF%: 20 Odds: 10/3 Wt: 11-11 AF
Why qualifies
  • Form boosted by clear-margin finish; 5lb rise fair.
  • NP ≥ 27 and IP < NP; Overround 114%; field 9; Class 5.
  • SecEff strong for a sharp 2m; prominent ride suits.

#1 En Avant (Form: 1180/3)

J: Sean Bowen NP: 26% IP: 29%
Details
Trainer: Olly Murphy Trainer RTF%: 72 Odds: 7/2 Wt: 12-0 F
Notes
  • Capable profile; fitter for comeback; big player if jumping slick.
  • Value tight; still a prime 1–2 projection.
  • Top connection in this grade; danger to the selection.

#3 Impression Chic (Form: 22/3-2)

J: Charlie Price (3) NP: 18% IP: 20%
Details
Trainer: Richard Hobson Trainer RTF%: 100 Odds: 5/1 Wt: 11-10 F
Notes
  • Consistent and aided by a smart 3lb claim; strong place angle.
  • Fair at tissue; can pick up pieces late.
  • Race shape could set up the finish.
3

17:35 Uttoxeter — Interlink Talent Solutions H’cap Chase (GBB) — 3m10y

Overround: 115% Runners: 10 Going: Good Class: 4

#10 Carriglux (Form: S21-53)

J: Jamie Hamilton NP: 29% IP: 20%
Details
Trainer: Ruth Jefferson Trainer RTF%: 105 Odds: 7/2 Wt: 10-12 AF
Why not qualified
Reason: Jockey not on whitelist

#4 Wheresmemoneygone (Form: 331-12)

J: Ben Jones NP: 28% IP: 43%
Details
Trainer: Ben Pauling Trainer RTF%: 80 Odds: 13/8 Wt: 11-10 BF
Notes
  • Improving but priced aggressively by market.
  • Below Fair vs NP; still a key contender.
  • Likely 1–2 with clean jumping.

#6 Leading Force (Form: 1F2263)

J: Sean Bowen NP: 17% IP: 20%
Details
Trainer: James Owen Trainer RTF%: 57 Odds: 8/1 Wt: 11-10 F
Notes
  • Honest stayer; rider booking a plus; grinding style fits track.
  • Fair price; potential late drift improves edge.
  • Frame claims if tempo even.
4

18:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion Electronics Limited H’cap Hurdle (0–130) — 2m3f207y

Overround: 114% Runners: 10 Going: Good Class: 3

#7 Liverpool Knight (Form: 35-442)

J: Jonathan Burke NP: 30% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien Trainer RTF%: 80 Odds: 11/2 Wt: 11-5 AF
Why qualifies
  • NP comfortably exceeds IP; ideal race conditions and class.
  • Within qualifying overround and field size; whitelist jockey.
  • Profiles to sit handy and finish strongest.

#3 Icare Allen (Form: 0-2601)

J: Benjamin Macey (7) NP: 28% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: Jonjo & A J O’Neill Trainer RTF%: 67 Odds: 4/1 Wt: 11-11 F
Notes
  • Claim offsets burden; retains competitiveness after win.
  • Fair value; minor regression risk priced in.
  • Strong chance to be in the mix again.

#6 My Chiquita (Form: /421-2)

J: Jack Quinlan NP: 22% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: B F Brookhouse Trainer RTF%: 99 Odds: 4/1 Wt: 11-8 F
Notes
  • Lightly raced; improvement likely second-up.
  • Fair pricing; could shorten on the day.
  • Should be finishing off strongly.
5

18:35 Uttoxeter — Interlink Talent Solutions Mares’ H’cap Hurdle (0–100) — 2m3f207y

Overround: 115% Runners: 11 Going: Good Class: 5

#9 Chosen Bae (Form: P/801-)

J: Dylan Johnston (3) NP: 28% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: Ryan Potter Trainer RTF%: 59 Odds: 10/3 Wt: 10-4 AF
Why qualifies
  • Unexposed; returns after a win; 3lb claim valuable.
  • NP ≥ 27 and IP < NP inside a 115% book; field size 11; Class 5.
  • Pace versatile; strong win/place profile.

#1 Queens Wish (Form: 137-33)

J: James Bowen NP: 27% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: C & A Pogson Trainer RTF%: 44 Odds: 11/2 Wt: 12-0 AF
Why qualifies
  • Consistent mare; class edge at this level; back up in trip helps.
  • Meets NP/IP threshold; class and field filters satisfied.
  • Whitelist jockey; reliable frame claims.

#7 Shesupincourt (Form: 31242-)

J: Ben Poste NP: 20% IP: 10%
Details
Trainer: Ryan Potter Trainer RTF%: 85 Odds: 10/1 Wt: 10-11 AF
Why not qualified
Reason: Jockey not on whitelist
6

19:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion, Jewel In The Peaks H’cap Hurdle (0–100) — 2m7f70y

Overround: 115% Runners: 13 Going: Good Class: 5

#3 Scudamore (Form: 27/5-F)

J: Sean Quinlan NP: 28% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: Jennie Candlish Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 10/1 Wt: 11-12 AF
Why not qualified
Reason: Field size 13 (must be 8–12)

#1 Tropical Speed (Form: -36333)

J: Sean Bowen NP: 27% IP: 17%
Details
Trainer: Olly Murphy Trainer RTF%: 72 Odds: 7/2 Wt: 12-0 AF
Why not qualified
Reason: Field size 13 (must be 8–12)

#8 Hammer Dan (Form: 11-223)

J: Jack Tudor NP: 19% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: David Pipe Trainer RTF%: 93 Odds: 7/1 Wt: 11-3 AF
Why not qualified
Reason: Field size 13 (must be 8–12)
Probability & Value — Read This

Legend — What the Colours Mean

  • Above Fair (AF)

    Value positive

    Our target condition when NP > IP.

  • Fair (F)

    Neutral value

    Priced about right; marginal edge.

  • Below Fair (BF)

    Value negative

    Overbet relative to model.

  • Overround — Green

    100–115%

    Our qualifying book range.

  • Overround — Red

    116%+

    Book too fat; approach cautiously.

  • Implied Prob.

    From odds

    Raw probability from bookmaker prices.

  • Normalized Prob.

    Margin-free

    Re-scales market to 100% total.

  • Class

    Race grade

    Target Classes: 5, 4, 3.

  • Runners

    Field size

    We want 8–12 to qualify.

  • Jockey

    Whitelist

    Only shortlist riders pass the strict filter.

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