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Ballinrobe 12/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

#Analysis, #Betting, #Horse Racing, #Predictions, #Sport
Bet Smart & Win
Ballinrobe — Fri 12/09/25
Races: 8 (1–8)

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.

How To Pick Winners

We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:

  • Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
  • Runners: Between 8–12
  • Value: Above Fair (Green)
  • Class: 5, 4, 3
  • Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
  • NP: 27% or Above
  • IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
  • Best days to bet: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (statistically strongest)

Ballinrobe 12/09/25 — NAP

NAP
Overround: 109% Race: 5:30 (R4) Distance: 2m6f5y Runners: 10 Class: N

#7 Fortunate Lighting (Form: 55-651)

J: Alex Harvey NP: 30% IP: 24%
Details
Trainer: Thomas Coyle Trainer RTF%: 43 Odds: 11/2 Wt: 10-10 AF
Why this is the NAP
  • Trip progression, soft-ground sectionals, handicap mark still lenient, trainer strike-rate in mares’ staying hurdles.
  • Latest Sligo win boosted by fast final split; still Above Fair.
  • Race Conditions: 5:30 Mares Handicap Hurdle, 2m6f5y, Yielding ground accentuates her proven stamina and closing speed.
  • This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
1

3:55 Ballinrobe — Burke’s Clonbur 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle (3yo) — 2m1f215y

Overround: 111% Runners: 12 Going: Yielding-yielding to soft in places Class: N

#7 Wackestone (Form: 139F)

J: Jack Kennedy NP: 32% IP: 28%
Details
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Trainer RTF%: 74 Odds: 13/8 Wt: 11-0 AF
Why we like this
  • Superior Flat ratings transfer; hurdles debut looks ideal spot on this ground and trip.
  • SecEff suggests strong late move.

#9 Bridezilla (Form: 32)

J: Cian Quirke NP: 27% IP: 29%
Details
Trainer: Andrew Slattery Trainer RTF%: 54 Odds: 9/4 Wt: 10-7 F
Why we like this
  • Solid course effort; slightly over-bet versus model — place chance rather than win value.

#1 Circle Of Secrets (Form: —)

J: Ricky Doyle NP: 15% IP: 12%
Details
Trainer: Emmet Mullins Trainer RTF%: 71 Odds: 16/1 Wt: 11-0 AF
Why we like this
  • Market underrates; closing sectionals on Flat show stamina; sneaks into third on value uplift.
2

4:25 Ballinrobe — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle (5yo+) — 2m1f215y

Overround: 112% Runners: 14 Going: Yielding-yielding to soft in places Class: N

#2 Korinthia (Form: 115-)

J: Paul Townend NP: 34% IP: 31%
Details
Trainer: W P Mullins Trainer RTF%: 45 Odds: 11/8 Wt: 11-7 AF
Why we like this
  • Bumper winner with top trainer/jockey; model flags “Above Fair” despite short odds.

#9 Oh Janey (Form: 7-4U42)

J: J J Slevin NP: 25% IP: 17%
Details
Trainer: S R B Crawford Trainer RTF%: 105 Odds: 8/1 Wt: 10-13 AF
Why we like this
  • Sectional stamina ideal; IP well under NP — clear value.

#4 Crossbar Getaway (Form: 09-234)

J: Jack Kennedy NP: 18% IP: 15%
Details
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Trainer RTF%: 74 Odds: 13/2 Wt: 10-13 AF
Why we like this
  • Consistent figures; marginal edge on price versus true chance.
3

5:00 Ballinrobe — Michael Cawe Suspended Ceilings Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) — 2m6f5y

Overround: 110% Runners: 9 Going: Yielding Class: N

#2 Mephisto (Form: 375111)

J: Shane Fitzgerald NP: 33% IP: 30%
Details
Trainer: Gerard Keane Trainer RTF%: 100 Odds: 5/2 Wt: 11-10 AF
Why we like this
  • Chasing four-timer; efficiency metrics peak; remains Above Fair with small margin.

#1 Mica Malpic (Form: 43/712)

J: Charlie O’Dwyer NP: 28% IP: 26%
Details
Trainer: E Bolger Trainer RTF%: — Odds: 11/4 Wt: 11-12 AF
Why we like this
  • Potentially well-handicapped; strong SecEff off steady gallop.

#6 Tomas O Maille (Form: 51-420)

J: Philip Donovan NP: 14% IP: 10%
Details
Trainer: M Flannery Trainer RTF%: 99 Odds: 7/1 Wt: 11-1 AF
Why we like this
  • IP lag offers pronounced value; track winner previously.
4

5:30 Ballinrobe — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) — 2m6f5y

Overround: 109% Runners: 10 Going: Yielding Class: N

#7 Fortunate Lighting (Form: 55-651)

J: Alex Harvey NP: 30% IP: 24%
Details
Trainer: Thomas Coyle Trainer RTF%: 43 Odds: 11/2 Wt: 10-10 AF
Why we like this
  • Latest Sligo win boosted by fast final split; still Above Fair.

#3 Ad Caelum (Form: 16U241)

J: Mr D McGill NP: 28% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: John Patrick Ryan Trainer RTF%: 14 Odds: 6/1 Wt: 11-5 AF
Why we like this
  • Consistent improver; NP edge stays intact despite support.

#6 Kilbuny Supersonic (Form: 6-1322)

J: Danny Mullins NP: 19% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: Richard J O’Hara Trainer RTF%: 113 Odds: 8/1 Wt: 10-13 AF
Why we like this
  • Strong sectionals; hidden value on step-up trip.
5

6:00 Ballinrobe — P&D Lydon Mares Beginners Chase (4yo+) — 2m7f6y

Overround: 107% Runners: 5 Going: Yielding Class: N

#3 Mozzies Sister (Form: 2342-2)

J: Mr Alan O’Sullivan NP: 40% IP: 37%
Details
Trainer: Declan Queally Trainer RTF%: 100 Odds: 8/11 Wt: 11-7 F
Why we like this
  • Hurdle RPRs tower; model sees minimal margin but still Fair+.

#2 Littlebiggie (Form: 7-0622)

J: Liam Quinlan NP: 34% IP: 30%
Details
Trainer: Ray Hackett Trainer RTF%: 25 Odds: 2/1 Wt: 11-7 AF
Why we like this
  • Chase experience big plus; sectional stamina holds for place.

#5 Slotty Dotty (Form: 34190-)

J: Phillip Enright NP: 15% IP: 12%
Details
Trainer: Bernard Martin Crowley Trainer RTF%: — Odds: 9/1 Wt: 11-7 F
Why we like this
  • Outsider gets small boost on soft ground efficiency.
6

6:30 Ballinrobe — Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Chase (4yo+ 0-100) — 2m7f6y

Overround: 113% Runners: 15 Going: Yielding Class: N

#9 My Friend The Wind (Form: 5P-751)

J: G B Noonan NP: 27% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: E McNamara Trainer RTF%: 88 Odds: 4/1 Wt: 11-4 AF
Why we like this
  • Favourable mark intact; SecEff upgrade; Above Fair despite wider field.

#12 Ballagh Star (Form: -04793)

J: Darragh O’Keeffe NP: 20% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: Mrs Y Dunleavy Trainer RTF%: 91 Odds: 6/1 Wt: 10-12 AF
Why we like this
  • Staying on strongly last two; price lags true probability.

#3 The Little Yank (Form: 382764)

J: Eoin Staples NP: 14% IP: 11%
Details
Trainer: John Patrick Ryan Trainer RTF%: 14 Odds: 8/1 Wt: 11-13 F
Why we like this
  • Reliable jumper; sneaks into exotics.
7

7:00 Ballinrobe — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (5yo+) — 2m1f48y

Overround: 112% Runners: 13 Going: Yielding Class: N

#1 Metamorpheus (Form: 09-50F)

J: Alex Harvey NP: 30% IP: 26%
Details
Trainer: Richard John O’Brien Trainer RTF%: — Odds: 4/1 Wt: 11-12 AF
Why we like this
  • Fell when in contention; model retains faith; margin positive.

#6 Finnians Row (Form: 676-41)

J: Niall Moore NP: 28% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: Dermot A McLoughlin Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 7/2 Wt: 11-3 AF
Why we like this
  • Improved markedly last win; still Below market.

#5 Itsalonglongroad (Form: 35-521)

J: Shane O’Callaghan NP: 19% IP: 15%
Details
Trainer: Charles Coakley Trainer RTF%: 101 Odds: 7/2 Wt: 11-4 AF
Why we like this
  • Veteran thrives in claimers; strong place credentials.
8

7:30 Ballinrobe — OCL Laundry (Pro-Am) INH Flat Race (4yo) — 2m24y

Overround: 108% Runners: 9 Going: Yielding Class: N

#3 Blue Waters (Form: 41)

J: Mr J H Williamson NP: 34% IP: 31%
Details
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Trainer RTF%: 74 Odds: 7/4 Wt: 11-3 AF
Why we like this
  • Galway runner-up franked; sectional turn-of-foot tops.

#7 Cast A Cold Eye (Form: —)

J: Miss J Townend NP: 30% IP: 27%
Details
Trainer: W P Mullins Trainer RTF%: 45 Odds: 5/2 Wt: 10-10 F
Why we like this
  • Debutante with Grade-1 pedigree; gym times strong; Fair.

#1 Governors Rock (Form: 81)

J: Mr D Doyle NP: 17% IP: 13%
Details
Trainer: Mark Fahey Trainer RTF%: 45 Odds: 7/1 Wt: 11-10 AF
Why we like this
  • Experience edge; stamina favours late surge into minors.

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