Chelmsford City (AW) — Thu 18 Sep 2025
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 9 (1–9)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
Race 1
Overround: 111%Class: 4Runners: 3Standard
#3 Royal Bodyguard (Form: 553313)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 41%IP: 50%14/2070%
Details
Why we like this
- Small-field pace control and recent surface win; most likely winner despite short IP.
#1 Explosion (Form: 331)
J: Silvestre De Sousa
NP: 34%IP: 36%13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Tactical trio suits forward run; fair value near tissue if controlling fractions.
#2 The Resdev Scholar (Form: 763244)
J: Lewis Chalkley (7)
NP: 25%IP: 14%11/2055%
Details
Why we like this
- Weight claim and stamina give place chance; NP>IP yields AF despite class concerns.
2
Race 2
Overround: 114%Class: 6Runners: 8Standard
#1 Sense Of Reason (Form: 2-5221)
J: Mr James Hills
NP: 29%IP: 43%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent C&D win; most likely but short IP makes value tight versus NP.
#6 Prince Hector (Form: 159923)
J: Miss Venetia Thompson
NP: 24%IP: 18%13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid recent figures; NP>IP gives AF with late-running claims.
#2 Wyld Bill (Form: -56516)
J: Mr Liam McGaffin
NP: 18%IP: 22%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Pace angle; form a bit in-and-out; value shy at tissue.
3
Race 3
Overround: 112%Class: 4Runners: 4Standard
#2 Forever Penywern (Form: 5321)
J: Harry Burns
NP: 38%IP: 69%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear form pick; most likely winner though value compressed by short IP.
#4 Wise Counsellor (Form: 225335)
J: P J McDonald
NP: 31%IP: 7%13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent placer; NP>IP yields AF at double-figures for podium.
#3 Divine Legacy (Form: 2-2520)
J: Ryan Sexton
NP: 22%IP: 17%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid ratings; fair value for frame behind the fav.
4
Race 4
Overround: 113%Class: 5Runners: 11Standard
#8 Rosa Inglesa (Form: 2)
J: Harry Davies
NP: 28%IP: 43%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong debut second; most likely selection though price short versus NP.
#1 Piscean Star (Form: 10)
J: Mason Paetel (5)
NP: 29%IP: 28%18/2090%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies: green overround, 11 runners, Class 5, NP≥27 with IP<NP via books outside the fav band.
#3 Norfolk Blue (Form: 8240)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 14%IP: 15%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Experience edge; fair place claims at tissue.
5
Race 5
Overround: 114%Class: 5Runners: 11Standard
#1 Acclaimed Freedom (Form: 4)
J: Harry Davies
NP: 26%IP: 25%17/2085%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies: green overround, 11 runners, Class 5, whitelist jockey, NP just above 25 with market subsets giving NP≥27 and IP<NP pre-off.
#7 Athena’s War (Form: —)
J: P J McDonald
NP: 24%IP: 27%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Likely improver; fair value if price eases to bring IP below NP.
#2 Mick From Tipp (Form: 5)
J: Thomas Greatrex
NP: 16%IP: 17%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Improvement on second start likely; fair for places.
6
Race 6
Overround: 114%Class: 6Runners: 10Standard
#6 Thanh Nam (Form: 775)
J: Mason Paetel (5)
NP: 22%IP: 14%14/2070%
Details
Why we like this
- Nursery debut profile positive; NP>IP offers AF versus shaky fav.
#9 Carefree (Form: 980)
J: Jason Watson
NP: 20%IP: 12%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Likely improver into nurseries; price leaves edge with NP>IP.
#5 Captain Bruce (Form: 00981)
J: Silvestre De Sousa
NP: 18%IP: 29%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Respect C&D win; value tight under penalty with IP>NP.
7
Race 7
Overround: 112%Class: 5Runners: 6Standard
#3 Carlton (Form: 241522)
J: Mason Paetel (5)
NP: 30%IP: 22%16/2080%
Details
Why we like this
- Excellent track record; NP over IP supplies AF against open field.
#2 Curran (Form: 627452)
J: Silvestre De Sousa
NP: 26%IP: 18%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong recent 1m5f run; Above-Fair on NP>IP with top jockey.
#6 Is I Right (Form: 146643)
J: Jason Watson
NP: 18%IP: 15%13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Fair value; late run threat if pace collapses.
8
Race 8
Overround: 115%Class: 6Runners: 13Standard
#9 Sam’s Hope (Form: 242421)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 27%IP: 62%15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Red-hot form and penalty manageable; value compressed at odds-on with IP>NP.
#10 Invincible Navy (Form: 930522)
J: Mason Paetel (5)
NP: 28%IP: 18%18/2090%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies: green overround, 13 runners (edge still AF though outside 8–12), NP≥27 with IP below; strong closer in big field.
#1 Due Date (Form: 763127)
J: Jason Watson
NP: 15%IP: 11%12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Course credentials; fair value at double figures for frame.
9
Race 9
Overround: 114%Class: 6Runners: 8Standard
#6 Rogue Officer (Form: 67-42)
J: Harry Davies
NP: 28%IP: 25%18/2090%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies: green book, 8 runners, NP≥27 and IP<NP, whitelist jockey; progressive C&D run.
#7 Campani (Form: 00-221)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 27%IP: 22%17/2085%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies borderline with NP≈27 and IP<NP; recent form solid in this grade.
#3 Dandy G Boy (Form: 5-6414)
J: P J McDonald
NP: 18%IP: 17%13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- In-form but below AF threshold; fair for minors.
NAP
Chelmsford City — NAP
Overround: 114%
Class: 6
Runners: 8
Standard
#6 Rogue Officer (Form: 67-42)
J: Harry Davies
NP: 28%IP: 25%19/2095%
Details
Why we like this
- Qualifies cleanly with NP>IP in green book; progressive C&D profile and strong finishing splits make a standout.