Southwell (AW) — Sun 21/09/25
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 9 (1–9)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
Race 1
Overround: 111%
Class: 3
Runners: 8
Standard To Slow
#2 Devil's Peak (Form: 2h)
J: James Doyle
NP: 32%IP: 50%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Strong form; standout on ratings despite short price.
#4 Exotic Baby (Form: 52)
J: Billy Loughnane
NP: 24%IP: 20%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Value angle with NP > IP in a green book.
#8 Urgent Call (Form: 342)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 14%IP: 13%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Solid place profile; experience helps.
2
Race 2
Overround: 109%
Class: 4
Runners: 12
Standard To Slow
#2 Dragon Icon (Form: 3507335p)
J: Ray Dawson
NP: 22%IP: 18%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Weights and form make him the one to beat.
#4 Degale (Form: 831-24)
J: Callum Rodriguez
NP: 14%IP: 13%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- NP > IP; fair value at tissue.
#10 Best Rate (Form: 2044233)
J: Tom Marquand
NP: 12%IP: 11%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; likely involved late.
3
Race 3
Overround: 108%
Class: 5
Runners: 8
Standard To Slow
#4 Hypnotised (Form: 442)
J: Colin Keane
NP: 42%IP: 48%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Clear form pick; price a touch short.
#1 Capitalization (Form: 352)
J: James Doyle
NP: 26%IP: 25%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Value side if market eases favourite.
#8 Yellow Diamonds (Form: 4432)
J: David Egan
NP: 16%IP: 20%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Experienced; place claims with break.
4
Race 4
Overround: 112%
Class: 2
Runners: 14
Standard To Slow
#6 The Man (Form: 008-123h)
J: David Egan
NP: 22%IP: 30%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Progressive; shorter than fair on our tissue.
#4 Adrestia (Form: 314223)
J: James Doyle
NP: 12%IP: 14%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Rock-solid; price-sensitive in big field.
#3 Against The Wind (Form: 130163)
J: Jack Callan
NP: 10%IP: 13%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Place squeak; needs pace collapse.
5
Race 5
Overround: 110%
Class: 5
Runners: 14
Standard To Slow
#11 Alhather (Form: 7-40914b)
J: J F Egan
NP: 18%IP: 20%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Form pick; needs price to drift to AF.
#8 Imperial Guard (Form: 4368064b)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 10%IP: 13%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Course profile positive; price key.
#4 Ancient Times (Form: 4-12127t)
J: Tom Marquand
NP: 10%IP: 14%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Credible place angle if drawn right.
6
Race 6
Overround: 109%
Class: 5
Runners: 14
Standard To Slow
#2 Tanjen (Form: 2135123)
J: Sean Kirrane
NP: 20%IP: 22%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Top AW profile; nap candidate on form despite BF.
#1 Grace Angel (Form: 3565525tb)
J: David Egan
NP: 14%IP: 17%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable; finds one or two too strong.
#4 King's Crown (Form: 3121725tp)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 12%IP: 14%13/20
Details
Why we like this
- Competitive; fair each-way price only.
7
Race 7
Overround: 111%
Class: 3
Runners: 12
Standard To Slow
#3 Assail (Form: 755295)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 12%IP: 13%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Weighted to contend; needs market onside.
#11 Bulletin (Form: 2442313)
J: Rob Hornby
NP: 18%IP: 22%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Favourite on form; a shade under fair.
#2 Charmaine (Form: 1123324)
J: Daniel Muscutt
NP: 14%IP: 17%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Likeable; price currently tight.
8
Race 8
Overround: 110%
Class: 3
Runners: 10
Standard To Slow
#8 Arabian Leopard (Form: 1202333)
J: Jamie Spencer
NP: 14%IP: 17%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Well suited to conditions; price a touch short.
#4 Forty Years On (Form: 31113)
J: Darragh Keenan
NP: 26%IP: 31%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Form pick; below fair on our tissue.
#6 Maybe Not (Form: 312123)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 16%IP: 20%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent placer; value improves on drift.
9
Race 9
Overround: 107%
Class: 4
Runners: 5
Standard To Slow
#5 Hatysa (Form: 4581413)
J: P J McDonald
NP: 26%IP: 33%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Staying profile; wants a well-run race.
#1 Sax Appeal (Form: 5413115)
J: Archie Young
NP: 32%IP: 40%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Fav on paper; a shade under fair.
#3 Dino Bellagio (Form: 5314316)
J: Rossa Ryan
NP: 22%IP: 29%14/20
Details
Why we like this
- Solid stayer; better each-way angle.
NAP
Southwell (AW) — NAP
Overround: 109%
Class: 5
Runners: 14
Standard To Slow
#2 Tanjen (Form: 2135123)
J: Sean Kirrane
NP: 20%IP: 22%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Impeccable recent AW runs; conditions ideal.
- Model’s “run-that-wins” scenario strongest here.