Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
9 Race Card • 3 selections per race
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
How We Pick Winners
- Overround 100–115% (green)
- Runners 8–12
- Value: AF or F
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Whitelist jockeys
- NP ≥ 27, IP < NP
Details
- Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- RTF: 55%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model calculates a significant value discrepancy with Normalized Probability well below the Implied. While the favourite, the overround is tight and the race lacks ideal criteria with only 3 runners. Preference is for value elsewhere.
Details
- Trainer: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- RTF: 67%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Shows a slight value edge with NP exceeding IP. The experienced trainer/jockey combination is a positive, but the race structure is not optimal for our model.
Details
- Trainer: S Woods
- RTF: 43%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The outsider offers the best theoretical value but form is a major concern. The low runner count makes this a race to approach with caution.
Details
- Trainer: Rebecca Menzies
- RTF: 45%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The favourite is assessed as Below Fair value by the model. The NP is significantly lower than the IP, suggesting the market has overestimated its chance relative to the field.
Details
- Trainer: Archie Watson
- RTF: 50%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Similar value profile to the favourite. The model seeks a runner where the market perception is more favourable.
Details
- Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
- RTF: 34%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Represents the fairest value in the race with NP and IP aligned. Recent win and conditions suit, making it a solid each-way contender in a competitive heat.
Details
- Trainer: Owen Burrows
- RTF: 79%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model indicates a Fair value assessment. Top trainer/jockey stats and consistent form make this a logical selection despite a slight value deficit.
Details
- Trainer: Hilal Kobeissi
- RTF: 67%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Another with a Fair value rating. The progressive profile is appealing and this runner is very closely matched with the top selection on figures.
Details
- Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- RTF: 55%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Shows a Below Fair value assessment. The model suggests the price is shorter than it should be relative to its stablemate and other rivals.
Details
- Trainer: Ralph Beckett
- RTF: 57%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The market favourite is rated Below Fair by the model. The NP is lower than the IP, indicating a potential underlay in a race with unproven types.
Details
- Trainer: James Fanshawe
- RTF: 58%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Represents Fair value. Has shown ability at a higher level and the trainer/jockey combo is strong. A solid contender.
Details
- Trainer: Warren Greatrex
- RTF: 29%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model identifies this newcomer as offering Above Fair value. While unproven, the price may underestimate its potential in an open race.
Details
- Trainer: Robert Cowell
- RTF: 23%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model shows a perfectly Fair value assessment. The strong C&D record is a significant positive and aligns with the market assessment.
Details
- Trainer: Roger Varian
- RTF: 62%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Rated as Below Fair value. The price appears too short given the competitive nature of this Class 4 handicap.
Details
- Trainer: Paul Midgley
- RTF: 44%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Another runner with a Below Fair value rating. The model suggests seeking better value elsewhere in the division.
Details
- Trainer: Robert Cowell
- RTF: 23%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Shows a slight value deficit but is a key contender based on course form. The trainer is adept with sprinters.
Details
- Trainer: Ruth Carr
- RTF: 43%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Similar profile to Cloud King, rated Below Fair. Is consistent and deserves respect in an open contest.
Details
- Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
- RTF: 40%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The top-weight is also assessed as Below Fair. The race lacks a standout value selection according to the model’s criteria.
Details
- Trainer: Geoff Oldroyd
- RTF: 50%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model rates this runner as Below Fair value. However, it possesses the most experienced form and is a logical contender in a maiden.
Details
- Trainer: Roger Varian
- RTF: 62%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The well-bred newcomer is also rated Below Fair. The market has latched onto its potential, leaving no value.
Details
- Trainer: James Tate
- RTF: 64%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Shows a significant Below Fair value assessment. The price appears too short given the presence of other promising types.
Details
- Trainer: David O’Meara
- RTF: 51%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The model indicates a Below Fair value assessment. However, its recent run at York was strong and the step back in trip is a positive.
Details
- Trainer: Andrew Balding
- RTF: 54%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Rated as significantly Below Fair. The favourite’s price does not offer value relative to its chances in a competitive field.
Details
- Trainer: Harry Charlton
- RTF: 71%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Shows a Below Fair rating. A return to Tapeta is a positive, but the model finds no strong value selection in this race.
Details
- Trainer: George Boughey
- RTF: 57%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
The strong favourite is rated as Below Fair value by the model. The price is short relative to the competitive nature of the race.
Details
- Trainer: Warren Greatrex
- RTF: 29%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Also carries a Below Fair rating. Is the clear danger on form but offers no value.
Details
- Trainer: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- RTF: 38%
- Score: … / 20
Analysis
Another with a Below Fair assessment. The model struggles to find value in this concluding race.