BSW — Southwell 9 Races (Formula-Enforced)

Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview

Fri 26/09/25 • 9 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.

How We Pick Winners
  • Overround 100–115% (green)
  • Runners 8–12
  • Value: AF preferred (NP ≥ IP + 3%)
  • Class: 5, 4 or 3
  • Whitelist jockeys
  • NP ≥ 27, IP < NP
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap
16:19 • Southwell • 9 runners • Standard
R1 Cl6 …%
#6 Dragon Spin
Form: 72642
Luke CattonF
NP
18%
IP
15%
Details
    Analysis

    Close second last time and well treated; strong recent figures make him the form pick, with consistent pace on Tapeta a plus.

    #3 Havin A Flyer
    Form: 6342622
    Kaiya FraserF
    NP
    15%
    IP
    13%
    Details
      Analysis

      Ultra-consistent and well weighted; should be in the mix again with a clean break and prominent sit.

      #8 Showcasis Oasis
      Form: 44682ht1
      George WoodF
      NP
      13%
      IP
      12%
      Details
        Analysis

        Recent winner for a yard in form; should travel well and finish off, with the draw workable at this trip.

        Join Southwell Golf Club Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB)
        16:50 • Southwell • 11 runners • Standard
        R2 Cl5 …%
        #1 Siouxpersonic
        Form: 77272
        Callum RodriguezBF
        NP
        25%
        IP
        36%
        Details
          Analysis

          Sets the standard on form but short enough; below-fair on price unless a late drift appears.

          #6 Naana’s Shadow
          Form: 722t
          Kieran O’NeillBF
          NP
          16%
          IP
          23%
          Details
            Analysis

            Unexposed and open to progress; needs the market to ease to flip into fair territory.

            #4 Lelosaja
            Form: 342
            Neil CallanBF
            NP
            10%
            IP
            13%
            Details
              Analysis

              Speedy profile and likely improver; place claims strong if settling better.

              Free Bets On attheraces.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
              17:25 • Southwell • 9 runners • Standard
              R3 Cl5 …%
              #5 Aajej
              Form: 433
              Callum RodriguezBF
              NP
              21%
              IP
              31%
              Details
                Analysis

                Solid placed efforts and likely to improve for the trip; short enough on current quotes.

                #9 Shumus
                Form: 323
                Daniel MuscuttBF
                NP
                19%
                IP
                25%
                Details
                  Analysis

                  Strong form claims and likely stayer; needs a touch of market easing for value.

                  #6 Abando
                  Form: 353083
                  Neil CallanBF
                  NP
                  26%
                  IP
                  36%
                  Details
                    Analysis

                    Best raw figures but returns from an absence; fitness the key variable on reappearance.

                    Golf And Gallop Handicap
                    18:00 • Southwell • 12 runners • Standard
                    R4 Cl6 …%
                    #1 Spirit Lead Me
                    Form: 6080813p
                    Donagh MurphyF
                    NP
                    20%
                    IP
                    25%
                    Details
                      Analysis

                      Recent winner and well treated with the claim; profiles as the most solid option in a compressed market.

                      #2 Havana Touch
                      Form: 80-0514
                      Neil CallanBF
                      NP
                      12%
                      IP
                      18%
                      Details
                        Analysis

                        Handicapper has relented; resurgence puts him right there if breaking well from the gates.

                        #11 Embarked
                        Form: 8631027
                        Joey HaynesBF
                        NP
                        8%
                        IP
                        13%
                        Details
                          Analysis

                          Light weight and workable draw; each-way value if the pace holds up down the straight.

                          Andrew And Anthony Roy Memorial Race Handicap (Div I)
                          18:30 • Southwell • 10 runners • Standard
                          R5 Cl5 …%
                          #8 One More Dream
                          Form: 4586216
                          Sam FeildenBF
                          NP
                          20%
                          IP
                          29%
                          Details
                            Analysis

                            Reliable profile with strong recent runs; price a shade tight in a competitive division.

                            #5 Ziggy’s Condor
                            Form: 0030564v
                            Jack GarrittyBF
                            NP
                            10%
                            IP
                            13%
                            Details
                              Analysis

                              Back to a workable mark and has course form; each-way angle with a clean trip.

                              #11 Travel Agent
                              Form: 8790153
                              Tyler HeardBF
                              NP
                              9%
                              IP
                              12%
                              Details
                                Analysis

                                Tempting weight and recent figures respectable; late burst can grab a share.

                                Andrew And Anthony Roy Memorial Race Handicap (Div II)
                                19:00 • Southwell • 10 runners • Standard
                                R6 Cl5 …%
                                #2 Jesse Luc
                                Form: 1039235tp
                                Daniel MuscuttF
                                NP
                                19%
                                IP
                                22%
                                Details
                                  Analysis

                                  Excellent C&D record in 2025; profiles as the most likely winner with a clean run.

                                  #3 Kiniro
                                  Form: 3034633p
                                  Callum RodriguezBF
                                  NP
                                  25%
                                  IP
                                  36%
                                  Details
                                    Analysis

                                    Consistent and danger to all; may be slightly under the odds given field shape.

                                    #8 Maui Breeze
                                    Form: 21-6673p1
                                    Neil CallanBF
                                    NP
                                    9%
                                    IP
                                    11%
                                    Details
                                      Analysis

                                      Recent winner and still feasibly treated; needs rhythm to hold in the lane.

                                      Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap
                                      19:30 • Southwell • 8 runners • Standard
                                      R7 Cl6 …%
                                      #3 Havechatma
                                      Form: 6365485b
                                      Jefferson SmithF
                                      NP
                                      16%
                                      IP
                                      17%
                                      Details
                                        Analysis

                                        Falling mark and returns to a favoured track; looks set to run a big race with luck in running.

                                        #7 Irish Dancer
                                        Form: 2117425tb
                                        Harry SmithBF
                                        NP
                                        15%
                                        IP
                                        20%
                                        Details
                                          Analysis

                                          Consistent type who races handy; danger if controlling the far side group.

                                          #5 Nelson Gay
                                          Form: 1476547tb
                                          Daniel MuscuttBF
                                          NP
                                          14%
                                          IP
                                          18%
                                          Details
                                            Analysis

                                            Top yard booking; if the tempo collapses he’s the one finishing best.

                                            At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap
                                            20:00 • Southwell • 5 runners • Standard
                                            R8 Cl6 …%
                                            #4 Division Day
                                            Form: 0346513
                                            Harry RussellBF
                                            NP
                                            25%
                                            IP
                                            31%
                                            Details
                                              Analysis

                                              Improved for the longer trip and should get a well-run race; just short of fair at current quotes.

                                              #3 Appleblossomwhite
                                              Form: 2257513tp
                                              Luke CattonBF
                                              NP
                                              22%
                                              IP
                                              25%
                                              Details
                                                Analysis

                                                Proven stayer who grinds it out; danger to the favourite if the pace is steady early.

                                                #5 Belaya River
                                                Form: 480333p1
                                                Callum RodriguezBF
                                                NP
                                                19%
                                                IP
                                                22%
                                                Details
                                                  Analysis

                                                  C&D winner in form; small field makes tactics key, capable of a bold show if handy.

                                                  Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap
                                                  20:30 • Southwell • 9 runners • Standard
                                                  R9 Cl5 …%
                                                  #3 Everyoneknowsadave
                                                  Form: 9412633
                                                  George WoodF
                                                  NP
                                                  13%
                                                  IP
                                                  14%
                                                  Details
                                                    Analysis

                                                    Progressive and drawn to get options; fair value with scope to shorten pre-off.

                                                    #1 Always A Star
                                                    Form: 3352334
                                                    Callum RodriguezBF
                                                    NP
                                                    20%
                                                    IP
                                                    29%
                                                    Details
                                                      Analysis

                                                      Rock-solid but top-weighted; may need the rail and a perfect trip to justify a short price.

                                                      #4 Inquisition
                                                      Form: 2112243
                                                      Darragh KeenanF
                                                      NP
                                                      12%
                                                      IP
                                                      14%
                                                      Details
                                                        Analysis

                                                        Honest and holds form; place claims solid with typical late kick on Tapeta.

                                                        Nap of the Meeting – Southwell
                                                        Summary
                                                        NAP Cl6 …%
                                                        #1 Spirit Lead Me (Form: 6080813p)
                                                        Donagh MurphyNAP
                                                        Analysis

                                                        Course & distance winner, arrives in form, and benefits from an effective claim; the model’s strongest “run-that-wins” profile on the card.

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