Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Sun 28/09/25 • 9 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
- Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Overround: Aim for 100–115% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5 & 4 races, then Class 3 & 1.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be 27% or higher and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- Trainer: Michael Herrington
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Enpassant shows the best value profile with normalized probability exceeding implied.
Details
- Trainer: David O’Meara
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Al Muqdad is the forecast favorite but offers less value.
Details
- Trainer: Richard Fahey
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Flying Fletcher is a solid contender with balanced probabilities in a competitive race.
Details
- Trainer: Gemma Tutty
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
King’s School stands out with the highest normalized probability and positive value.
Details
- Trainer: Brian Ellison
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Lir Speciale represents strong value.
Details
- Trainer: David O’Meara
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Twilight Diamond is a key player despite slightly negative value assessment.
Details
- Trainer: George Boughey
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Both Of Us is a clear standout with very high normalized probability.
Details
- Trainer: Charlie Johnston
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Wadacre Giorgio offers value in a race where the favorite dominates the market.
Details
- Trainer: Brian Ellison
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Queen Roslyn offers value in a race where the favorite dominates the market.
Details
- Trainer: George Scott
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Bragbor is the strong favorite with the highest normalized probability.
Details
- Trainer: George Boughey
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
North View is a serious place contender.
Details
- Trainer: James Owen
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Crack Shot is a serious place contender, showing interesting value dynamics.
Details
- Trainer: Harry Charlton
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Gran Descans shows positive value profile.
Details
- Trainer: Ralph Beckett
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Prince Of The Seas shows positive value profile and has the highest normalized probability.
Details
- Trainer: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Siempre Arturo shows positive value profile in a competitive contest.
Details
- Trainer: K R Burke
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Leading Dancer is the overwhelming favorite with a very high probability score.
Details
- Trainer: Edward Bethell
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Yy Spirit is the clear second choice in a small field where the favorite is expected to dominate.
Details
- Trainer: K R Burke
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Light The Night Up in a small field where the favorite is expected to dominate.
Details
- Trainer: K R Burke
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Foxtrot Flyer is the tentative favorite in a race of unexposed horses.
Details
- Trainer: James Fanshawe
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Augustus Gloop is closely matched on probability, making the places competitive.
Details
- Trainer: George Scott
- Class: Class 3
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Major Neigh Sayer is closely matched on probability, making the places competitive.
Details
- Trainer: Michael Appleby
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
War Howl is the joint-favorite with the highest normalized probability.
Details
- Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Stanage offers value in a wide-open race with many contenders.
Details
- Trainer: Richard Hannon
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Signcastle City offers value in a wide-open race with many contenders.
Details
- Trainer: Ed Dunlop
- Class: Class 2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Superposition is joint-top on normalized probability in a highly competitive Class 2 handicap.
Details
- Trainer: David O’Meara
- Class: Class 2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Akkadian Thunder is joint-top on normalized probability in a highly competitive Class 2 handicap.
Details
- Trainer: George Boughey
- Class: Class 2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Oliver Show’s proven course and distance form makes him a key player for the places in a highly competitive Class 2 handicap.
Analysis
Overwhelming favorite with 31% normalized probability, seeks hat-trick of wins, operates effectively in current conditions. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model.