Bet Smart & Win — Cork Race Preview
Sun 12/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Brian Hayes
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m1f70y
- Trainer RTF%: 54
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Betting forecast favourite; NP > IP → Above Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m1f70y
- Trainer RTF%: 36
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Strong yard/jockey; minor AF differential.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 2m1f70y
- Trainer RTF%: 51
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Fair value; sits within preferred probability envelope.
Details
- J: Cian Quirke
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 1m7f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 65
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Clear form pick; strong AF differential.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 51
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Top yard; solid each-way style profile.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trip: 1m7f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 11
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Longshot AF; improved recent figure.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 2m2f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 38
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Unexposed angle; AF despite wide field.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: D E Fitzgerald
- Trip: 2m2f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 100
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Likely favourite; fair value confirmation.
Details
- J: Phillip Enright
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 2m2f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 43
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Solid place claims; fair value.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m4f100y
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Standout; large AF margin.
Details
- J: Shane Markey
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 2m4f100y
- Trainer RTF%: 71
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Consistent; fair value.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: W J Burke
- Trip: 2m4f100y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Similar profile; fair each-way angle.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m50y
- Trainer RTF%: 36
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Allowance helps; fair value in small field.
Details
- J: Simon Torrens
- T: Patrick T Foley
- Trip: 3m50y
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Likely favourite; fair value at top of market.
Details
- J: Mr D L Queally
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 3m50y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Place claims; fair valuation.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 40
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Best on ratings; AF edge.
Details
- J: Eoghan Finegan
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 71
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Joint top on model; AF.
Details
- J: Phillip Enright
- T: Aengus King
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Capable; fair value in small field.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 40
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Unexposed; strong AF case.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 71
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Course form; AF.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Patrick T Foley
- Trip: 2m1f140y
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Top-weight; fair value.
Details
- J: Mr D L Queally
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Forecast fav; AF valuation.
Details
- J: Mr Finn Buckley
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Recent win boosted; AF with stamina angle.
Details
- J: Mr M J O’Neill
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 56
- Odds: N/A
Analysis
Best form lines; fair value.
Analysis
“Run-that-wins” scenario strongest on model; stamina and boosted form line. AF with NP > IP.