Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Tue 07/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Harry Atkins
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Stays strongly; consistent fencing profile. Slightly below fair with IP > NP but retains leading chance.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trainer RTF%: 41
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Sound jumper; prominent tactics suit. Below-fair on price but has solid place claims.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trainer RTF%: 61
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Recent wins read well; slightly underpriced versus NP. Frame chance strong.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds: 11/10 (2.10)
Analysis
Clear form pick; NP below IP suggests a shade short but still most likely winner.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trainer RTF%: 55
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Likely improver up in trip; close to fair on price.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Honest mare; podium chance with efficient early fractions.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Major contender after fav NR; progressive chase profile.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trainer RTF%: 36
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Improver; danger to favourite with strong mid-race rhythm.
Details
- J: Jack Andrews
- T: T Ellis
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: 20/1 (21.00)
Analysis
Needs step forward; roughly fair each-way slice for small fields.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston (3)
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: 15/8 (2.88)
Analysis
Peak setup at this trip; most likely winner though market a touch short on our numbers.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Tactical speed; chief danger from a powerful yard.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trainer RTF%: 55
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Solid spring form; keeps on well and rates a strong podium candidate.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Hunter-chase form solid; AF angle with sustained gallop expected.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Classy type; chief form danger though slightly short on our line.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Jane Williams
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Course winner; pace/trip suit. Price a touch warm on our model.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trainer RTF%: 42
- Odds: 13/8 (2.63)
Analysis
Last year’s winner; NP > IP gives slight value edge despite small field.
Details
- J: Harriet Tucker (7)
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trainer RTF%: 22
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Handy racer; profile fits course and trip. Near-fair price.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trainer RTF%: 53
- Odds: 10/1 (11.00)
Analysis
Reliable type; competitive for the frame at the prices.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trainer RTF%: 42
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Well-bred; projects efficient even fractions and strong finish.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
Analysis
Strong connections; slightly short on our line but highly likely to feature.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
Analysis
Smart debut; danger to all with strong cruising speed.
Analysis
Proven handicap platform; optimal trip; efficient closing sectionals; positive course fit. Slightly short on IP vs NP but still the strongest “run-that-wins” profile on the card.