Bet Smart & Win — Naas Race Preview
Sun 12/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Gavin Ryan
- T: Donnacha Aidan O’Brien — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 11/4 (3.70) — from IP 27%
Analysis
Standout NP and AF edge with strong market support; top pick.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00) — from IP 20%
Analysis
Main danger; AF value and scope to progress.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: A P O’Brien — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00) — from IP 10%
Analysis
Powerful yard; fair-to-positive value to make the frame.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: G M Lyons — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 2/1 (3.12) — from IP 32%
Analysis
Clear top pick; strongest form plus AF differential.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 16/5 (4.17) — from IP 24%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value and obvious danger to the fav.
Details
- J: Jamie Powell
- T: M D O’Callaghan — Trainer RTF%: —
- Trip: 5f205y • Class: Maiden
- Odds: 7/1 (8.33) — from IP 12%
Analysis
Third pick; fair-to-positive value to hit the frame.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: David Marnane — RTF%: —
- Trip: 7f • Class: 2
- Odds: 7/2 (4.55) — from IP 22%
Analysis
Marginal form pick with AF value; primary selection.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph P. O’Brien — RTF%: —
- Trip: 7f • Class: 2
- Odds: 11/2 (6.67) — from IP 15%
Analysis
Unexposed from a top yard; strong each-way claims.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Noel Meade — RTF%: —
- Trip: 7f • Class: 2
- Odds: 8/1 (9.09) — from IP 11%
Analysis
C&D form; fair value to complete the trio.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: D K Weld — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m • Class: 1
- Odds: 11/4 (3.70) — from IP 27%
Analysis
Class edge and AF value; confident selection.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: Gavin Cromwell — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m • Class: 1
- Odds: 6/1 (7.14) — from IP 14%
Analysis
Reliable profile; fair value to place.
Details
- J: Scott McCullagh
- T: Daniel McLoughlin — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m • Class: 1
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00) — from IP 10%
Analysis
C&D claims; fair value for minor money.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m4f • Class: 1
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00) — from IP 20%
Analysis
Sets the standard; AF value and solid staying profile.
Details
- J: Andrew Slattery
- T: John S O’Donoghue — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m4f • Class: 1
- Odds: 5/1 (6.25) — from IP 16%
Analysis
Improver with AF value; second pick.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Mrs John Harrington — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m4f • Class: 1
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00) — from IP 10%
Analysis
Solid stayer; fair value to round out the three.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien — RTF%: —
- Trip: 2m7y • Handicap
- Odds: 5/1 (6.25) — from IP 16%
Analysis
Form pick in a wide-open handicap; AF value.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: W P Mullins — RTF%: —
- Trip: 2m7y • Handicap
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00) — from IP 10%
Analysis
Power yard; fair value for a bold showing.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Mrs John Harrington — RTF%: —
- Trip: 2m7y • Handicap
- Odds: 10/1 (11.11) — from IP 9%
Analysis
Solid claims; fair value to make the frame.
Details
- J: Megan Telford-Kelly
- T: W McCreery — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Handicap
- Odds: 9/2 (5.56) — from IP 18%
Analysis
Clear top selection with a strong AF differential.
Details
- J: Shay Wallace
- T: M D O’Callaghan — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Handicap
- Odds: 13/2 (7.69) — from IP 13%
Analysis
Positive value profile aligned with recent form.
Details
- J: Jessica O’Gorman
- T: Kevin Thomas Coleman — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Handicap
- Odds: 13/2 (7.69) — from IP 13%
Analysis
Ranks third on probability; fair value for places.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: J P Murtagh — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Class: 3
- Odds: 16/5 (4.17) — from IP 24%
Analysis
Green-zone OV 109, Class 3, 10 runners, NP>IP and AF — strong profile.
Details
- J: Julian Pietropaolo
- T: Joseph P. O’Brien — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Class: 3
- Odds: 5/1 (6.25) — from IP 16%
Analysis
Winning form and AF value; strong contender.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph P. O’Brien — RTF%: —
- Trip: 1m2f125y • Class: 3
- Odds: 7/1 (8.33) — from IP 12%
Analysis
Top yard; fair value to complete the trio.
Analysis
Recent winning form; step up in trip looks ideal; Joseph O’Brien yard; AF value with NP > IP.