Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Mon 13/10/25 • 9 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 48%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Upper-band OR; Bowood tops NP but sits just below our ideal band.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Darryll Holland
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 52%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Fair value behind the fav; consistent market support.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 41%
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
C&D winner recently; competitive place angle.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 56%
- Odds: 8/11 (1.73)
Analysis
Green OR; clear fav, NP>IP, AF.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 53%
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Solid second-fav; fair value.
Details
- J: Joey Haynes
- T: Mark Usher
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 44%
- Odds: 10/3 (4.33)
Analysis
Consistent placer; needs pace to collapse to win.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 60%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Classy yard; fav on debut, probabilities diluted by field size.
Details
- J: Daniel Tudhope
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 51%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Experience edge; fair value.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Marco Botti
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF: 47%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Solid third-fav; needs improvement to land it.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 64%
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Powerful yard; NP nearing target band.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 58%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Experienced and solid; concedes weight.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 55%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Interesting debutant; market respected.
Details
- J: Daniel Tudhope
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 49%
- Odds: 2/1 (3.00)
Analysis
Ideal OR & field size; narrow fav in a tight trio.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 60%
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Improver; almost level with the favs.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF: 55%
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Right there on the figures; lively chance.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF: 62%
- Odds: 5/2 (3.50)
Analysis
Green OR, whitelist jockey, NP in band, AF — full qualifier.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF: 41%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Consistent; fair value.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF: 50%
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
C&D angle; priced to play EW/places.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: James Ferguson
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 57%
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Strong fav; meets most ideals but NP outside 27–34 band min due to small field impact.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 46%
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Main danger; fair value.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Jim Boyle
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 45%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.00)
Analysis
Third choice; place chance.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 63%
- Odds: 11/4 (3.75)
Analysis
Progressive; small edge in a green OR race.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 58%
- Odds: 10/3 (4.33)
Analysis
Main rival; fair.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: David Simcock
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 52%
- Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Analysis
Place angle with shortlist claims.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 63%
- Odds: 11/4 (3.75)
Analysis
Narrow preference; ticks many boxes.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 60%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Strong opponent; fair.
Details
- J: Kyle Strydom
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF: 51%
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Consistent placer; price okay for EW/places.