Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Fri 17/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Jedd O’Keeffe
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Odds (Dec): 10.00
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Arrives in top form off a recent win; AF edge vs market.
Details
- J: Sean D Bowen
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Odds (Dec): 12.50
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Reliable type; consistent figures and AF differential.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Odds (Dec): 12.50
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Solid on form and market signals; AF contender.
Details
- J: Alexandra Egan
- T: Gemma Tutty
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Forecast fav; AF edge off recent second.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Harry Charlton
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Odds (Dec): 7.69
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; AF with scope.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
C&D winner; whitelist jockey; AF.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Tip pick; AF and progressive profile.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (Dec): 7.69
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Unexposed; AF with upside.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Archie Watson
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (Dec): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Headgear has sharpened; whitelist jockey; AF.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman
- T: Gemma Tutty
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 6.25
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Course form and conditions suit; AF.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 6.67
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Market leader; AF but minor questions.
Details
- J: Tom Queally
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
On figures/tips; AF completes trio.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Clear form choice; AF differential.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Consistent; place claims; AF.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Michael Dods
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Market support noted; whitelist jockey; AF.
Details
- J: William Pyle
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 12.50
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Recent smooth C&D win; AF profile.
Details
- J: Joanna Mason
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 14.29
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Clear second pick on form; AF.
Details
- J: Elizabeth Gale
- T: Lizzie Quinlan
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 14.29
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
In-form; AF completes three.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 11.11
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Low mileage; AF with bounce-back angle.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman
- T: Gemma Tutty
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 12.50
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Ideal setup; AF major player.
Details
- J: Joanna Mason
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 7f14y
- Odds (Dec): 12.50
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Comes here in winning form; AF.
Details
- J: Aiden Brookes
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 5.88
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
4/4 for yard before last run; C&D winner; AF and clear top pick.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Consistent C&D performer; AF.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 1m5y
- Odds (Dec): 10.00
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Tip selection; whitelist jockey; AF.
Details
- Race: ARC £1Million Bonus Bigger Than Ever Handicap — 8:30
- Trip: 1m5y • Going: Standard
- Odds (Dec): 5.88
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
Analysis
Unbeaten in four for current yard before latest; authoritative C&D win; AF edge with profile to defy penalty. Strongest alignment with model.