Bet Smart & Win — Wolverhampton Race Preview
Sat 18/10/25 • 9 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Michael Appleby • Trainer RTF%: 39
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): 9/1 (10.00)
Analysis
Forecast fav; big NP≫IP differential; strong claims.
Details
- J: Jordan Nason
- T: Ivan Furtado • Trainer RTF%: 35
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~8/1 (9.09)
Analysis
Well treated; recent upturn; place angle.
Details
- J: William Cox
- T: J S Moore • Trainer RTF%: 46
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~8/1 (9.09)
Analysis
CD specialist; each-way claims.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: George Baker • Trainer RTF%: 43
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/4 (3.45)
Analysis
Well handicapped; clear form pick.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Adrian Wintle • Trainer RTF%: 20
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Ultra-consistent; in the mix.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Martin Dunne • Trainer RTF%: 50
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/5 (2.78) — market vs model mismatch noted
Analysis
CD winner; market a bit short vs model.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne • Trainer RTF%: 23
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~7/4 (2.78)
Analysis
Sets the standard; small field reduces edge.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Stuart Williams • RTF%: 47
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~2/1 (3.03)
Analysis
AW form strong; fitness query.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Marco Botti • RTF%: 42
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Reliable type; solid place chance.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Sir Mark Prescott • RTF%: 10
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~11/4 (3.70)
Analysis
Meets all strict criteria; unexposed; big chance.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Mark Loughnane • RTF%: 36
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~11/2 (6.67)
Analysis
Recent CD winner; solid contender.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Jennie Candlish • RTF%: 62
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~13/2 (7.69)
Analysis
In form; place claims.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Hugo Palmer • RTF%: 44
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
In excellent form; cheekpieces retained.
Details
- J: Ben Sanderson
- T: Charles Hills • RTF%: 63
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/5 (2.78) — model vs market to watch
Analysis
Consistent; major player.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Alice Haynes • RTF%: 20
- Trip: 1m 1f 104y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/5 (2.78) — market > model
Analysis
CD winner; should be involved.
Details
- J: Joey Haynes
- T: Jennie Candlish • RTF%: 62
- Trip: 2m 120y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/4 (3.45)
Analysis
Attractive mark; flat return a plus.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: William Stone • RTF%: 100
- Trip: 2m 120y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~10/3 (4.85)
Analysis
In good nick; key player.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Jim Boyle • RTF%: 46
- Trip: 2m 120y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~10/3 (4.85)
Analysis
CD winner; respected.
Details
- J: James Sullivan
- T: Ruth Carr • RTF%: 24
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Odds (implied from IP): 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Good form; strong appeal.
Details
- J: Conor Orr
- T: Fionn McSharry • RTF%: 0
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~6/1 (7.69)
Analysis
Consistent of late; on the premises.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Jennie Candlish • RTF%: 62
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~2/1 (3.03)
Analysis
Fav but more to prove at trip.
Details
- J: Mason Paetel
- T: Michael Appleby • RTF%: 39
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~13/2 (7.14)
Analysis
Drop in trip looks a plus; can build on stable debut.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: David Loughnane • RTF%: 28
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Odds (implied from IP): 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Arrives consistent; solid chance.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: James Fanshawe • RTF%: 57
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~10/3 (4.85)
Analysis
CD winner; respected.
Details
- J: Mason Paetel
- T: Ismail Mohammed • RTF%: 33
- Trip: 1m 4f 51y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~11/2 (6.67)
Analysis
Prev course winner; well treated; retains potential.
Details
- J: Harry Burns
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford • RTF%: 62
- Trip: 1m 4f 51y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/4 (3.45) — market leader
Analysis
Form choice; respected.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian • RTF%: 71
- Trip: 1m 4f 51y
- Odds (implied from IP): ~9/5 (2.78) — a shade short vs model
Analysis
Consistent; major player.
Analysis
Unbeaten at Wolverhampton; attractive mark; strong yard combo. The model’s run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest here.
Details
- Race: Get Raceday Ready Handicap — 8:30 (Wolverhampton)
- Trip: 1m 4f 51y • Going: Standard
- Odds (implied from IP): ~11/2 (6.67)