Bet Smart & Win — Sedgefield Race Preview
Sun 19/10/25 • 7 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Patrick Neville
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds: 4/9–2/5 (1.45)
Analysis
Clear form pick; market efficient.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 16
- Odds: 2/1 (3.03)
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Chris Grant
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 16
- Odds: 20/1 (20.00)
Details
- J: Tom Midgley
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m5f28y
- Trainer RTF%: 17
- Odds: 13/8 (2.63)
Details
- J: Alice Stevens
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 2m5f28y
- Trainer RTF%: 14
- Odds: 2/1 (3.03)
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: John Joseph Hanlon
- Trip: 2m5f28y
- Trainer RTF%: 10
- Odds: 10/3 (4.35)
Details
- J: Ben Poste
- T: Archie Watson
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 3
- Odds: 10/11 (1.92)
Analysis
Clear form pick; market a shade short vs NP.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 3
- Odds: 5/2 (3.45)
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 5
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 3m2f59y
- Trainer RTF%: 40
- Odds: 10/11 – Evens (2.08)
Analysis
The one to beat; market aligned.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 3m2f59y
- Trainer RTF%: 52
- Odds: 5/2 (3.45)
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Fiona Needham
- Trip: 3m2f59y
- Trainer RTF%: 14
- Odds: 10/3 (4.35)
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 3m5f48y
- Trainer RTF%: 90
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Proven stayer; model preference at the trip.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Kerry Lee
- Trip: 3m5f48y
- Trainer RTF%: 26
- Odds: 13/8 (2.63)
Details
- J: Jamie Neild
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 3m5f48y
- Trainer RTF%: 20
- Odds: 9/2 (5.56)
Details
- J: Luke Scott
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m3f188y
- Trainer RTF%: 11
- Odds: 7/4 – 13/8 (2.78)
Analysis
Solid at this level; slight AF edge.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 2m3f188y
- Trainer RTF%: 81
- Odds: 7/4 – 13/8 (2.78)
Details
- J: Nathan Moscrop
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m3f188y
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds: 13/2 – 7/1 (7.69)
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 86
- Odds: 8/15 – 4/7 (1.56)
Analysis
Best bumper form; short relative to NP.
Details
- J: Nathan Moscrop
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 20
- Odds: 9/4 (3.23)
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Chris Grant
- Trip: 2m178y
- Trainer RTF%: 4
- Odds: 8/1 – 9/1 (9.09)