Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Call Fitzdares For Better Odds Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap

Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 1:30
First: The Cola Brasil
Age: 9
Weight: 10-6
Form: 3-4042 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Mr Kenny Roussety
Trainer: Michael Bell
Trainer RTF% Form: 68%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 50
TS: 56
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Waistcoat
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
Form: 6-6061 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Mr Fletcher Yarham
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 58
TS: 55
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: The Cola Brasil has shown strong recent form, including a close second last time out. Waistcoat has potential but needs to prove consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Waistcoat may improve, but The Cola Brasil handles firm conditions well.

Race Name: Fitzdares Taking Bets Since 1882 Fillies’ Conditions Stakes

Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 2:00
First: Anthelia
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 1 (Strong debut)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Rod Millman
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 91
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Piazza
Age: 2
Weight: 8-11
Form: – (Unraced)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Unproven
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Anthelia’s debut win was impressive, while Piazza is an unknown quantity.
Scenario Analysis: If Piazza shows early speed, she could challenge, but Anthelia is the proven performer.

Race Name: Text Fitzdares The Private Bookmaker Handicap

Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 2:30
First: Liosa
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 2121-1 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Stuart Kittow
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 72
TS: 92
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Lil Guff
Age: 6
Weight: 10-8
Form: 924-15 (Consistent)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: William Carson
Trainer: Daniel & Claire Kubler
Trainer RTF% Form: 59%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Liosa is in career-best form, while Lil Guff is consistent but may struggle to match the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Lil Guff’s stamina could come into play.

Race Name: Download Fitzdares New World-Class App Novice Stakes

Race Distance: 6f213y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 3:10
First: El Matador
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 2- (Promising debut)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 95
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Sea Baaeed
Age: 3
Weight: 9-11
Form: 1-5 (Mixed)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Finley Marsh
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 91
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: El Matador’s debut was eye-catching, while Sea Baaeed needs to bounce back.
Scenario Analysis: If Sea Baaeed improves, he could challenge, but El Matador looks the classier horse.

Race Name: Fitzdares Personal Betting Service Handicap

Race Distance: 1m1f201y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 3:50
First: Just An Hour
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4338-1 (Improving)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Rod Millman
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 74
TS: 86
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Didaar
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 6405-3 (Needs improvement)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 75
TS: 87
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Just An Hour is on an upward curve, while Didaar needs to find more.
Scenario Analysis: If Didaar returns to peak form, he could upset the favorite.

Race Name: Fitzdares World Of Sport Podcast British EBF Maiden Stakes

Race Distance: 1m4f5y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 4:25
First: Gold Cup Day
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 5 (Promising debut)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 85
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Bull Run
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: – (Unraced)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Unproven
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Gold Cup Day’s debut was solid, while Bull Run is an unknown.
Scenario Analysis: If Bull Run is well-bred, he could surprise.

Race Name: Fitzdares Live Casino Handicap

Race Distance: 1m6f44y
Racecourse: Salisbury
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Grey Owl
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 31343- (Consistent)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 73
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Wannabeawallaby
Age: 4
Weight: 8-12
Form: 74-772 (Needs improvement)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 49
TS: 73
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Grey Owl is the most consistent, while Wannabeawallaby has potential but is inconsistent.
Scenario Analysis: If Wannabeawallaby finds form, he could challenge.

Best Value for Money Horse at Salisbury (04 May 2025)

Out of my analysis for Salisbury, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Liosa
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 2121-1 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 72
TS: 92
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Liosa has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve further, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Liosa presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Salisbury – 04th May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

13:30 – Call Fitzdares For Better Odds Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap

• Waistcoat (Probability: 80%)
• The Cola Brasil (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:00 – Fitzdares Taking Bets Since 1882 Fillies’ Conditions Stakes

• Anthelia (Probability: 85%)
• Piazza (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:30 – Text Fitzdares The Private Bookmaker Handicap

• Liosa (Probability: 80%)
• Desdemona (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

15:10 – Download Fitzdares New World-Class App Novice Stakes

• El Matador (Probability: 80%)
• Sea Baaeed (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

15:50 – Fitzdares Personal Betting Service Handicap

• Just An Hour (Probability: 80%)
• Didaar (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

16:25 – Fitzdares World Of Sport Podcast British EBF Maiden Stakes

• Gold Cup Day (Probability: 80%)
• Bull Run (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:00 – Fitzdares Live Casino Handicap

• Wannabeawallaby (Probability: 80%)
• Grey Owl (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Anthelia (14:00, Salisbury, 85%)
2. Gold Cup Day (16:25, Salisbury, 80%)
3. Just An Hour (15:50, Salisbury, 80%)
4. El Matador (15:10, Salisbury, 80%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Anthelia (14:00, Salisbury)
2. Gold Cup Day (16:25, Salisbury)
3. Just An Hour (15:50, Salisbury)
4. El Matador (15:10, Salisbury)

Doubles

1. Anthelia + Gold Cup Day
2. Anthelia + Just An Hour
3. Anthelia + El Matador
4. Gold Cup Day + Just An Hour
5. Gold Cup Day + El Matador
6. Just An Hour + El Matador

Trebles

1. Anthelia + Gold Cup Day + Just An Hour
2. Anthelia + Gold Cup Day + El Matador
3. Anthelia + Just An Hour + El Matador
4. Gold Cup Day + Just An Hour + El Matador

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Anthelia + Gold Cup Day + Just An Hour + El Matador

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Gold Cup Day (80%) –
• Highest Probability: Anthelia (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Liosa (80%) –