Bet Smart & Win — Worcester Race Preview
Wednesday 22 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: 1.61 (from 62% IP)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The clear favourite based on superior hurdles form. High IP depresses value (BF), but still most likely winner.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 4.35 (from 23% IP)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Second in; stable flying. Fair-to-Above value and solid alternative.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: 5.88 (from 17% IP)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Positive booking; Above Fair for place purposes in a tight field.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m110y
- Trainer RTF%: 76%
- Odds: 3.45 (from 29% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Leader on figures; NP > IP gives Above Fair with yard in form.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m110y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 5.26 (from 19% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Lightly raced profile; Above Fair and still improving.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m110y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 10.00 (from 10% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Honest chaser; Fair-to-Above at current quotes; frame player.
Details
- J: Isabelle Ryder
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: 3.85 (from 26% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Bumper yard strength; Above Fair with best chance rating.
Details
- J: Ned Fox
- T: Tom Symonds
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: 5.56 (from 18% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Already a winner; Above Fair and strong place claims.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 9.09 (from 11% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Top stable newcomer; Fair-to-Above at the price; Placepot support.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Tom George
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 2.38 (from 42% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Short-price standout; Above Fair and clear on our numbers.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 7.69 (from 13% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Second-best; Above Fair with strong yard behind.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: 10.00 (from 10% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Third pick; Above Fair and worth keeping onside.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Tom George
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 3.85 (from 26% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Jockey booking a big plus; Above Fair and most likely winner of this division.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 5.26 (from 19% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; Above Fair on our tissue.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 5.26 (from 19% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Joint second line; Above Fair and should be involved.
Details
- J: Ben Smith
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 2.13 (from 47% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Heavily backed last week; Above Fair with highest NP on the card. “Run-that-wins” scenario if repeating.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Nicky Martin
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 10.00 (from 10% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Logical second pick behind a strong favourite; value acceptable.
Details
- J: Ben Godfrey
- T: Kayley Woollacott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 20.00 (from 5% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Price-led each-way squeak; Above Fair on model.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 2.50 (from 40% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Impressive LTO; Above Fair and the right fav on our numbers.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Ryan Potter
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 78%
- Odds: 8.33 (from 12% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Second string; Above Fair and main danger.
Details
- J: Harry Atkins
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 8.33 (from 12% IP)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Shares second line on probabilities; Above Fair and stays on ticket.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: 4.35 (from 23% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Lightly raced improver; Above Fair and preferred.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 8.33 (from 12% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Comes here off a win; Above Fair and strong contender.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Tom Symonds
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 96%
- Odds: 10.00 (from 10% IP)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent mare; Above Fair at prices and solid for the frame.
Analysis
Overround within ideal range; strong Above Fair classification; highest NP on the card. If reproducing last week’s easy win, he should confirm. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Vellacotts & Smiths Go Racing Handicap Hurdle (3:45)
- Class: 4 • Going: Good • Runners: 14
- Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero — RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 2.13 (from 47% IP)
- Overround: 111%