Bet Smart & Win — Navan Race Preview
Wednesday 22 October 2025 • 7 Races • Soft/Soft-to-Heavy • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Betting-forecast favourite; strong debut form; top jockey booking. Model flags Above Fair value with NP > IP.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid form and perfect trainer RTF. Fair value and logical place contender.
Details
- J: Rory Mulligan
- T: J P Murtagh
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Recent winner from a powerful yard. Above Fair each-way profile.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent and well-suited by conditions. Above Fair; most probable winner per model.
Details
- J: Nicola Burns
- T: Aidan Melia
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent win a plus; model sees price as fair.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
- Trip: 5f 180y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Dual recent winner; NP exceeds IP—Above Fair each-way play.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Listed-race experience sets a standard; fair value.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Top stable and progressive profile; fair value; major player.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Consistent and experienced; fair value in a tight heat.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Standout on form; first-time visor a positive. Above Fair; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: M C Grassick
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Consistent and knocking at the door; fair value as main danger.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Comes here off a win; NP above IP—Above Fair each-way angle.
Details
- J: Wesley Joyce
- T: Joseph Anthony Murray
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Course winner, well-handicapped and trending up. Above Fair; strong claims.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: Kieran P Cotter
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Highly consistent; fair value as a key contender.
Details
- J: Yudish Geerdharry
- T: J P Murtagh
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Reliable profile; fair value to be involved late.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Powerful yard; eyecatcher earlier in career. Above Fair against the favourite.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Recent winner; form choice; fair value at current quotes.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: David Harry Kelly
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Promising debut and open to progress. Above Fair for place/back.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: Gary McGill
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Well-handicapped and noted staying on last time. Above Fair at a price.
Details
- J: Rory Mulligan
- T: Peter Lawlor
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Consistent; Above Fair on our line; place claims.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: T G McCourt
- Trip: 1m 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Market leader with solid form; fair value to run another big race.
Analysis
Strong recent form, first-time visor, Above Fair on our tissue, and ideal conditions. Back with confidence.